Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[gtmoBlue]

If another round of expansion occurs, it is doubtful that the B1G takes another school from the Big 12. However, if Delaney should scoop up one, it is likely to be Iowa State - not KU. Both are AAU, but ISU receives more than twice the research funding that KU receives.

ISU - $425 million (2015)
KU - $238 million (2014)

http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2015/0 ... dfunding15
http://research.ku.edu/sites/research.k ... FY2014.pdf

It should be noted that both were about to be left in the cold in the last round of reorganization, when UT and the Okies were thinking of going to the PAC 12. The Kansas legislature was attempting to bind a KU/KSU package. None of the Big 12
schools are a good fit for inclusion as BE schools.

[NJRedman]

re: UConn's finances

Has everyone seen actual numbers? how much does football really drain the school? what is the AAC rules with bowls? are they shared equally? even if UConn never gets into the P5, can the occasional playoff once a decade or so plus the conference's other school's bowls be enough maybe not to be in the black but enough to not be a sink hole especially in the non financial argument how football is advertising?

I suspect that the investment is too great for them to ever give up football.

oh, and is it really their academics keeping them out of the B1G as opposed to just on field success? They may not be AAU but I always thought their academics were pretty sharp?

Are you serious? There is very little chance a AAC team let alone any G5 team makes the playoff.

[Boyee]

I think the best options if the Big East Conference should expand to 12 schools are Saint Louis University (between Creighton and the rest of the Big East former rivals of DePaul and Marquette) and the University of Connecticut (Storrs, CT, if they go back to FCS) or Saint Joseph's University (Philadelphia, PA) or Duquesne University of the Holy Spirit (Pittsburgh, PA) or Siena College (suburban Albany, NY) or Canisius College (Buffalo, NY) or College of the Holy Cross (Worcester, MA, original Big East Conference founding invitee). I cannot picture the Big East Conference having more Midwest schools than Northeastern schools, as Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's and Villanova would never accept that, which eliminates University of Dayton as a possibility.

[Xudash]

NJRedman,

Good work putting that hypothetical 4 x 16 model together.

I thought we were as follows now:

B1G 14
SEC 14
ACC 14
P12 12
B12 10
Tot 64

And that is without counting ND. I still don't see room for Cincy to move up in this gig if it does eventually go to 64. The existing numbers and the need to put ND into the mix makes it necessary to cut an existing member of the club, so to speak. Right or wrong, I don't see them cutting an existing program from the gold chest group to insert a perceived better program that isn't in it right now. I don't even regard UC to be in that vein, not with a 40k stadium and weak fan support.

[Xudash]

Fair counterpoint, Dash.

I would say that history has shown that realignment never stops. While conference alignment may lay dormant for several years, there are always shifts for what schools think is in their best interests. There was a time when many schools were independent. Marquette for example, even without football, was an independent for nearly 75 years - and has been in 4 conferences in the past 25 years. Virginia Tech has been a member in the Southern Conference, Metro Conference, Big East Conference, Atlantic-10 Conference, Atlantic Coast Conference, as well as an independent - all in the past 40 years. Many schools went through numerous conference affiliations, mostly due to the ever changing landscape of collegiate athletics.

I would also say that, in regards to money being spent, Cincinnati, Connecticut and USF (the three schools that were left out during the last go-around), can actually afford to wait and pump money back into their athletic programs because they collected a significant amount of exit fees from when the original Big East schools that separated (West Virginia, Rutgers, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame). In our separation agreement (between the AAC and BE), I believe that those three schools got close to $90 million total of the war chest that was left behind. It appears that they are pumping some of those funds into renovations of their current athletic facilities (Cincinnati for sure) to appeal to the power conferences for an invitation.

Good point as well GW11: if anything is constant, it is change.

I shared the following on XH Re UC's financials:

I actually got curious enough about this to visit UC's Audited financial report for 2014. Please find what, in essence, is their Annual Report for their Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2014 as follows: https://www.uc.edu/content/dam/uc/af...Report2014.pdf

Please note the following from their footnotes on Page 43: Auxiliary Enterprise Revenues primarily represent revenues generated by athletics, bookstores, the conference center, dining, housing, and parking.

Now for the P/L (P32):

Net Auxiliary Enterprises (net of scholarship allowances (must be athletic)) $102 million
Auxiliary Enterprises Operating Expenses $ 95 million
"Operating" Income (from this sector) $ 7 million

Without departmental reporting, there is no way from these figures to absolutely determine whether or not UC's Athletic Department is a money maker or loser. However, with that many extra revenue sources thrown in with it, and with a net of "only" $7 million, that department obviously isn't making money hand over fist, assuming it's making anything at all.

One other thing: UC, as part of the AAC, is participating in the run-off of the Big East exit money. As we all know, that funding is recurring for some number of more years, but it is nothing that can be relied upon for the long-term; it will not recur forever. When that strip of funding goes away, things are going to tighten up in Clifton. I can't see any other way of looking at it.

Beyond all this, I'm stuck on believing that there will be no further expansion/conference realignment from here. It simply doesn't make sense at the increment. Just as it doesn't make sense for the Big East to expand by acquiring from what's available out there strictly on the basketball side presently, UC and UCONN don't offer enough, in particular, to any of the P5 conferences. ASSUMING anyone in power is thinking about an 8 team playoff at some point, and that the 4x16 model is a ready-made way to establish that, 65 teams are already in the club for purposes of setting that up. I'm not suggesting that's where it's headed, but I am suggesting that incremental expansion from here seems less likely for a number of reasons, this one among them.

Like some here, I like Nippert and I like its setting. But a 40k capacity stadium coupled with a fickle fanbase is a road to hell when it comes to peacocking for a P5 conference. UC's renovation to Nippert is nice, but it just doesn't offer the scale that is necessary for the bigtime.

If you're stuck in the middle of it - as an administrator in UC's athletic department - looking for a way through to greater stability, I guess you do what you can do and hope for the best. I'm just not clear on what they can hope for at this point. Yet they keep spending a lot of money along the way.

[Edrick]

I think the best options if the Big East Conference should expand to 12 schools are Saint Louis University (between Creighton and the rest of the Big East former rivals of DePaul and Marquette) and the University of Connecticut (Storrs, CT, if they go back to FCS) or Saint Joseph's University (Philadelphia, PA) or Duquesne University of the Holy Spirit (Pittsburgh, PA) or Siena College (suburban Albany, NY) or Canisius College (Buffalo, NY) or College of the Holy Cross (Worcester, MA, original Big East Conference founding invitee)

Literally none of those are viable.

UConn is the only one that has a basketball program the level that you'd have interest and they simply aren't EVER going to be an option while sponsoring football.

There are absolutely no 'good' options, much less multiple -- the closest to such a thing is Dayton (and there's a snowball's chance of they getting an invite with XU)

It's just not happening......Now or in any time frame that is relevant to even discuss.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Let's say, hypothetically, that the P5 is "locked in" and that the conferences are consolidated into 4 groups (PAC-12, B1G, SEC, ACC). That would be 65 teams (4x16, and Notre Dame). The next interesting situation would be whether or not certain G5 schools would be better off belonging to a conference or going the independent route (I immediately think of schools like Cincinnati, Memphis, Connecticut, etc.) If they can get equal value for what they are currently making from their AAC contract (I believe $2.5 million per year) from a Fox, NBC Sports, etc., then there would be no reason to continue to play schools like subpar football programs like Tulane, Temple, SMU, USF, Houston and Tulsa in AAC football.

I still see Cincinnati and UConn getting a seat at the big table, however. They have spent far too much money to not get an invite. Look at Louisville 15-20 years ago. They were members of the Metro Conference. They put serious money into their athletic programs (not just football). They paid for premier coaches (Pitino, Petrino, Strong), performed well in post-season. They got called up to C-USA, followed by the Big East, followed by the ACC (nearly invited to the Big 12). History has shown good things happen to those who invest. That's why UConn/Cincinnati cannot afford to stop now. They will continue their pursuit until they either cannot afford it anymore or they are officially locked out of the big house.

[aughnanure]

If another round of expansion occurs, it is doubtful that the B1G takes another school from the Big 12. However, if Delaney should scoop up one, it is likely to be Iowa State - not KU. Both are AAU, but ISU receives more than twice the research funding that KU receives.

ISU - $425 million (2015)
KU - $238 million (2014)

http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2015/0 ... dfunding15
http://research.ku.edu/sites/research.k ... FY2014.pdf

It should be noted that both were about to be left in the cold in the last round of reorganization, when UT and the Okies were thinking of going to the PAC 12. The Kansas legislature was attempting to bind a KU/KSU package. None of the Big 12
schools are a good fit for inclusion as BE schools.

Iowa State is not, I repeat, NOT getting picked before Kansas in any conference realignment scenario.

[XtoDC]

If another round of expansion occurs, it is doubtful that the B1G takes another school from the Big 12. However, if Delaney should scoop up one, it is likely to be Iowa State - not KU. Both are AAU, but ISU receives more than twice the research funding that KU receives.

ISU - $425 million (2015)
KU - $238 million (2014)

http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2015/0 ... dfunding15
http://research.ku.edu/sites/research.k ... FY2014.pdf

It should be noted that both were about to be left in the cold in the last round of reorganization, when UT and the Okies were thinking of going to the PAC 12. The Kansas legislature was attempting to bind a KU/KSU package. None of the Big 12
schools are a good fit for inclusion as BE schools.

Iowa State is not, I repeat, NOT getting picked before Kansas in any conference realignment scenario.

Yeah, the Big Ten isn't going to choose to double up in Iowa.

Right now everyone is in a rush to put together four 16 team conferences, but I don't know how inevitable those really are. If each Big Ten team right now makes $25 M a year (or whatever it is), the next team they add has to increase that number per team by at least a couple million more. I don't think schools like Iowa State or Kansas would help in that respect.

[HoosierPal]

Yeah, the Big Ten isn't going to choose to double up in Iowa.

Right now everyone is in a rush to put together four 16 team conferences, but I don't know how inevitable those really are. If each Big Ten team right now makes $25 M a year (or whatever it is), the next team they add has to increase that number per team by at least a couple million more. I don't think schools like Iowa State or Kansas would help in that respect.

$32 M last year.

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/18/big-ten-revenue-shares-jump-to-32-million-per-school/