Number of Top 100 players to non-football schools

[stever20]

Stever thanks for the education on population growth in the SE.

Now let's get back to your statement in which you said, and I quote:

"I wouldn't say that the NE is in a geographic hotbed of talent any longer."

Let's try to stay on topic here. I presented an argument that the DC to Boston corridor has 2x+ as much talent to choose from and less "local" schools competing for that talent in that specific geographic region (300-350 miles radius). I presented the last 4 recruiting cycles as my proof. You countered with an analysis of 1/3 of the continental US, using a radius of about 750-800 miles, and found 1/2 the number of players from the ESPN Top 100. You also didn't comment on the fact that there are substantially more major basketball programs in the SE to compete with than the BE schools within their geographic region.

Let's step away from the in depth analysis on population growth and speak directly about the current state of where HS basketball talent is coming from. Looking at your earlier statement, do you think you may have been a bit off target?

The DC to Boston corridor does have a lot of schools to compete. You have the BE 5, BC, Syracuse, Maryland, Penn St close enough, UConn, Temple, and Rutgers. What does the VA-Fl corridor have? UVA, VT, UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake, USC, Clemson, GT, Ga, FSU, Miami. That's pretty much equal. But a huge difference- the NE corridor schools have to compete with schools like Duke who can and do play in NYC for 2-3 games every year- taking away that advantage to a large degree..... Also what's hurting all the schools except for Maryland- the teams in the NE are playing no where near as many games either home or in the NE than they did before. Take St John's for instance. The most NE games they can have now is 13 in conference- the 9 homes and then 4 conference road games.

Population absolutely matters. The VA-FL corridor is absolutely booming and that's not changing. Of the top 160 players in this year and next year- a whopping 42 or over 1/4 are in that area. That just doesn't happen 30 years ago.

VA-FL right now has 4 of the top 12 states by population and South Carolina is #24... I don't think people realize just how big Virginia-Georgia has gotten in the last 20-30 years. VA-GA has 31,849,524 folks. NY-NJ-PA by comparison has 40,872,375 folks. 10 years ago- that was 27,326,293 to 39,671,861. 30 years ago that was 19,803,000 to 36,788,000. So in 30 years gone from being 17 million less down to being 9 million less. That's huge. It's a trend that if it hasn't already had an impact(which I completely disagree with)- it will very soon. I'm not sure we were all that smart in going Midwest with the expansion(another area that isn't growing much- although Indiana/Nebraska are growing moderately- about 6.5% each- Ohio isn't- 4th slowest growth in the country behind Michigan(who actually declined), Rhode Island, and Louisiana(Katrina impact)). However the one issue there is if we determined we had to keep it private, there just aren't that many private schools in the southeast- something you wonder if it'll change going forward with the growth that the south east is seeing.

About the retirees- while Florida obviously has something to do with that- I don't think that's the case anywhere near as much for the Virginia-Georgia corridor. Also there are a lot of folks in the NJ/PA/NY group that don't move. Just looking in the breakdown by age in 2010- FL-VA had 7,124,527 folks over 65. PA-NJ-NY had 5,763,243. However just as interesting- folks under 18- PA-NJ-NY had 9,182,298. FL-VA corridor had 11,709,429. Florida has only 300k fewer 0-18 yr olds than New York does right now- and only 600k more 65+ folks than NY does right now. Don't think you would expect either of those numbers quite frankly...

I just think long term, our schools are going to need to make national recruiting much more of a priority. I don't think the 5 NE schools can just say, lets recruit the hell out of the NE and we'll be dominant nationally. There may be classes that are good like that- but there again, you have other programs who swoop in to get those guys as well.

Hopefully one thing that happens now quite frankly is Richmond somehow gains momentum after Shaka left VCU- and the Spiders start to take back Richmond. I think us getting into Richmond would be a fairly important thing now quite frankly.

[HoosierPal]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2277263-ranking-the-top-20-cities-that-produce-the-best-college-basketball-talent/page/22

This article should end this discussion. Stever does have some credibility.

[stever20]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2277263-ranking-the-top-20-cities-that-produce-the-best-college-basketball-talent/page/22

This article should end this discussion. Stever does have some credibility.

Great find....

I think a big point on it is that it's not a static thing. So while for instance New York and Florida have almost the same number of folks right now- within 500k right now- it's not going to be like that going forward. It's going to be hard for New York to keep up with Florida. If you extrapolate the population gains of the last 10 years to 50 years from now- Florida will have in 2060 32.9 million people. New York will have 21.4 million people. Will that hold? Maybe yes, maybe no. Maybe not as much of a gap developing, but pretty good chance there will be a decent size gap. If the last 10 years change holds for the next 50 years- Georgia and North Carolina by 2060 are the 5th and 6th largest states and Virginia is the 10th largest state. South Carolina by then would be larger than Massachusetts and up to 20th biggest. And bottom line, this population change will have a huge impact on recruiting, and I think you can say it's already had somewhat of a change.

[stever20]

I think going back to the initial thing that I objected to. I don't think our NE schools long term can just think we're in a hotbed, let's just focus on the NE and we're set. I don't think it's a winning plan even now, and will be less so going forward.

And I don't think the top teams in the BE are just counting on the NE even now...
Nova- got Brunson from Illinois(though definitely know the Philly ties)- although they are I think of these 3 by far the most reliant on NE products.
Georgetown- has had several guys not from the NE
Providence- has had several guys not from the NE

I think St John's is going to be a very interesting case. I think the fan base expects it to be largely NYC. But can that be good enough in this day and age? I think how Georgetown and PC are recruiting is how it's going to have to get done going forward. Yeah get a few of the local kids- but have a much wider net for others as well.

[GumbyDamnit!]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2277263-ranking-the-top-20-cities-that-produce-the-best-college-basketball-talent/page/22

This article should end this discussion. Stever does have some credibility.

Hoosier, that article is pure trash. So Philly, Balt/DC and NY are not in the Top 25 of HS talent yet Huntington WV, Mouth of Wilson VA and NH and NV is? You do realize that those are all addresses of the HS basketball factories that players go to when they just want to play BB and not attend classes, right?

Here's the Stever two step. He presents a listing of players from VA to FL to TX as being comparable to the amount of talent in the DC to Boston corridor. When I point to the # of schools who compete for said players he only includes VA to FL and excludes all of those SEC Big12 and other ACC schools that absolutely litter the SE. He moves the goal posts in every argument without fail. He deserves no one to come to his aid. He usually makes an outlandish comment in a a subtle attempt to discredit the BE and I for one as a fan of the BE see through his charades. He is an AAC fan. I just wish he'd admit it.

[stever20]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2277263-ranking-the-top-20-cities-that-produce-the-best-college-basketball-talent/page/22

This article should end this discussion. Stever does have some credibility.

Hoosier, that article is pure trash. So Philly, Balt/DC and NY are not in the Top 25 of HS talent yet Huntington WV, Mouth of Wilson VA and NH and NV is? You do realize that those are all addresses of the HS basketball factories that players go to when they just want to play BB and not attend classes, right?

Here's the Stever two step. He presents a listing of players from VA to FL to TX as being comparable to the amount of talent in the DC to Boston corridor. When I point to the # of schools who compete for said players he only includes VA to FL and excludes all of those SEC Big12 and other ACC schools that absolutely litter the SE. He moves the goal posts in every argument without fail. He deserves no one to come to his aid. He usually makes an outlandish comment in a a subtle attempt to discredit the BE and I for one as a fan of the BE see through his charades. He is an AAC fan. I just wish he'd admit it.

.

It's not the VA to FL to Tx anymore. The talent in the VA to FL corridor is better than the talent in the DC to Boston corridor. Just Florida and Georgia alone have 15 top 100 players- or about as many as the entire NE combined. 11 of the top 60 for next year. And the Virginia to Florida corridor really doesn't have a lot of big time schools. UVA, VT, UNC, NC State, Duke, Wake, Clemson, USC, Georgia, GT, Miami, FSU, and Florida. That's it.

I know NYC has had only 6 McDonalds All American game players since 2002. DC basketball isn't what it used to be.

[HoosierPal]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2277263-ranking-the-top-20-cities-that-produce-the-best-college-basketball-talent/page/22

This article should end this discussion. Stever does have some credibility.

Hoosier, that article is pure trash. So Philly, Balt/DC and NY are not in the Top 25 of HS talent yet Huntington WV, Mouth of Wilson VA and NH and NV is? You do realize that those are all addresses of the HS basketball factories that players go to when they just want to play BB and not attend classes, right?

Okay Mr. I Know Better, serve up your list with the criteria on how you developed it. The list isn't mine. But it is documented with who, where and how. The GPA's of these players isn't part of the discussion. Location of these players is the discussion. Give me something better than "this article is trash". I am eagerly awaiting your list.

[GumbyDamnit!]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2277263-ranking-the-top-20-cities-that-produce-the-best-college-basketball-talent/page/22

This article should end this discussion. Stever does have some credibility.

Hoosier, that article is pure trash. So Philly, Balt/DC and NY are not in the Top 25 of HS talent yet Huntington WV, Mouth of Wilson VA and NH and NV is? You do realize that those are all addresses of the HS basketball factories that players go to when they just want to play BB and not attend classes, right?

Okay Mr. I Know Better, serve up your list with the criteria on how you developed it. The list isn't mine. But it is documented with who, where and how. The GPA's of these players isn't part of the discussion. Location of these players is the discussion. Give me something better than "this article is trash". I am eagerly awaiting your list.

Gladly. Do you honestly think that Henderson NV or Wolfeboro NH are better hotbeds for talent than NYC? Wouldn't that alone cause you to stop reading and question the criteria immediately? If you really believe that Hoosier, than I clearly do "know better." Half of the players listed on Findlay Prep alone are from Canada.

Here's the problem with Stever, first he started with TX and FL and then realized that his argument didn't hold water. Now he is saying that the DC to Boston corridor is the same as the VA to Miami corridor. But I guess VA which is literally a mile or two from one of the BE campuses doesn't count a part of the BE's recruiting grounds. Let's just forget conveniently that the VA to Miami corridor is 2.5x the distance from end to end. A true comparison would be Southern VA to SC and GA/FL as two separate areas if he wanted an apples to apples comparison. But whatever... I'll still play. Let's look at tossing up below DC to both UVA and Gtown and call that a truce. But for the sake of a a debate, let's consider NC to Miami the SE and DC to Boston, the NE.

ESPN Top 100 Players from DC Metro to Boston (on left) vs. NC to FL (on right) Anything between Richmond to VA Beach/Newport News was disregarded as it is somewhere in between the two areas:

2015 - 20/20
2014 - 17/14
2013 - 19/12
2012 - 20/20
2011 - 18/13
2010 - 22/21

Do I have to keep going? Feel free to check my math. I took out kids from western PA and VA players below metro DC.

So Stever, the area that you presented which is twice as large, has not produced more recruits in any single year in at least the last 6 recruiting cycles and trails the NE by 16 total recruits over a 6 year time frame. Feel free to read through, find some new stats to build a new argument and we can talk tomorrow.

Hoosier do you want to stick by that impressive data from a 2nd rate blogger or do you think the ESPN data is a little more credible? I'll let you decide.

[HoosierPal]

Hoosier, that article is pure trash. So Philly, Balt/DC and NY are not in the Top 25 of HS talent yet Huntington WV, Mouth of Wilson VA and NH and NV is? You do realize that those are all addresses of the HS basketball factories that players go to when they just want to play BB and not attend classes, right?

Okay Mr. I Know Better, serve up your list with the criteria on how you developed it. The list isn't mine. But it is documented with who, where and how. The GPA's of these players isn't part of the discussion. Location of these players is the discussion. Give me something better than "this article is trash". I am eagerly awaiting your list.

Gladly. Do you honestly think that Henderson NV or Wolfeboro NH are better hotbeds for talent than NYC? Wouldn't that alone cause you to stop reading and question the criteria immediately? If you really believe that Hoosier, than I clearly do "know better." Half of the players listed on Findlay Prep alone are from Canada.

Here's the problem with Stever, first he started with TX and FL and then realized that his argument didn't hold water. Now he is saying that the DC to Boston corridor is the same as the VA to Miami corridor. But I guess VA which is literally a mile or two from one of the BE campuses doesn't count a part of the BE's recruiting grounds. Let's just forget conveniently that the VA to Miami corridor is 2.5x the distance from end to end. A true comparison would be Southern VA to SC and GA/FL as two separate areas if he wanted an apples to apples comparison. But whatever... I'll still play. Let's look at tossing up below DC to both UVA and Gtown and call that a truce. But for the sake of a a debate, let's consider NC to Miami the SE and DC to Boston, the NE.

ESPN Top 100 Players from DC Metro to Boston (on left) vs. NC to FL (on right) Anything between Richmond to VA Beach/Newport News was disregarded as it is somewhere in between the two areas:

2015 - 20/20
2014 - 17/14
2013 - 19/12
2012 - 20/20
2011 - 18/13
2010 - 22/21

Do I have to keep going? Feel free to check my math. I took out kids from western PA and VA players below metro DC.

So Stever, the area that you presented which is twice as large, has not produced more recruits in any single year in at least the last 6 recruiting cycles and trails the NE by 16 total recruits over a 6 year time frame. Feel free to read through, find some new stats to build a new argument and we can talk tomorrow.

Hoosier do you want to stick by that impressive data from a 2nd rate blogger or do you think the ESPN data is a little more credible? I'll let you decide.

Waiting for your list of the top 20 cities that produce the best college basketball talent. From your ramblings, I guess your list is NYC #1, DC #2, Boston #3? Can you list the players that have had great college careers from these cities and compare to the criteria in the article? No? So I guess you agree that Stever has a point. [Indy is #6 by the way. Chicago, Memphis, Dallas, its all right there. No NYC.]

I could not find an email address for Kerry Miller's, but I found where you can leave him a message telling him personally his article is trash.
http://bleacherreport.com/users/1927996-kerry-miller

[stever20]

except you know darn well Virginia Beach and Chesterfield(which is down near Danville) IS SE pure and pure. No way in hell that should be considered neutral. Fairfax is more of a neutral type thing. If anything this year should be 18 for the NE(taking out the 2 Fairfax,VA kids) and 22 for the SE(giving them the 2 Va Beach and Chesterfield kids).

last year- the 2 were Chesterfield and Richmond from Virginia. Both should go to the SE count. So now 17-16
2013- 2 Hamptons should go to the SE count. 1 from Fairfax should go neutral. So now 18-14
2012- 2 guys from Richmond. So now 20-22
2011- 4 guys from Richmond South. All go to the SE. So now 18-17
2010- 2 guys from Richmond- go SE. Another from Dumfries- would still call neutral- but I bet you called it for DC Metro Area. So now 21-23

So 2010-14 using real numbers- it's 94-92. Add in this year and it's 112-114 in favor of the SE. A lot of kids from Richmond and further south absolutely get counted to the SE... If you have any clue- you would know that Richmond is absolutely a SE city and not anyway neutral. Same with Norfolk.

and next year-
4 North Carolina
2 South Carolina
3 Georgia
8 Florida
so before even taking into account Virginia there are 17 guys for the SE out of the top 60. Virginia has 2- 1 for SE(in Richmond) and 1 neutral(in Fairfax). Now how about the NE? Md has 1, PA 0, NJ 2, NY 2, CT 1, and MA 1. So that's 7. So best case 19-8 giving the kid from Fairfax to the NE.

And I think bottom line is simple. 25 years ago, would this EVER have been the case where the SE was even remotely close to the DC-Boston corridor? No way in hell.