Number of Top 100 players to non-football schools

[stever20]

thing is look at Georgetown's roster this year:
SC 1
DC 1
MD 2
Ind 1
NJ 1
NC 1
TX 1
Ill 1
FL 3
WA 1
PA 1

9 folks from SC, Indiana, North Carolina, Texas, Illinois, Florida, and Washington(state). Only 5 from DC, Maryland, New Jersey, and PA.

That's not NE and Mid-Atlantic. More from Florida than any other place. This year's class a bit better- 3 guys- 1 from NY, 1 from Fairfax VA(a suburb of DC), and then the 3rd though from down in Martinsville,VA(down near the VA/NC border).

Bottom line- especially NE basketball isn't what it was even 10 years ago. The state of NY had 7 4 star or better recruits. NJ- 8. CT- 2. MA-5.

If anything things have shifted more towards the mid-atlantic. PA with 6, MD with 5, VA with 6. WV with 2. So NE with only 22, mid atlantic with 19. That's great for Georgetown(and NOVA)- but for SH, SJ, and PC- they need the NE to get back where it used to be.

I don't know what this even means. A snap shot in time is meaningless. There are ups and downs. Long term trends matter, not short term fluctuations.

What would be the basis for thinking that basketball talent in the Northeast is declining? The population isn't going down. The sport isn't getting less popular. So . . . .

As far as your question- the NE population may not be going down- but it's not growing by the same number as other parts of the country.
just look at the 2010 census compared to 2000-
NE- and this is giving the NE Maryland and Virginia(which is frankly a joke, especially Virginia)- only went up from 66,864,454 up to 70,173,378- a gain of 3,308,924. If you take out Virginia and Maryland- who grew by 1.4 million- it's less than 2 million growth.
SE- went up from 77,406,691 up to 89,745,357 - a gain of 12,338,666.

It's not saying that the NE population is going down, but other parts of the country are absolutely growing much more rapidly. Where 10 years ago- that gap was not even 11 million it's now up to 19 million.

now go back 30 years ago to 1980-
NE had 59,296,000 folks. So in 30 years- gone up by not quite 11 million folks. about 18.3%.
SE had 55,914,000 folks. So in 30 years- gone up by not quite 34 million folks. about 60.5%

[marquette]

Yeah stever, but most of those kids are playing soccer, not basketball.

[stever20]

Yeah stever, but most of those kids are playing soccer, not basketball.

I dunno. But the fact that the SE has grown more in the last 10 years than the NE has grown in the last 30 years is huge. And I don't think that's slowing down one bit either. And that's giving the NE Virginia which if you know Virginia just isn't the case one bit. 30 years ago, the NE was bigger than the SE by about 3.4 million. Now the SE is bigger than the NE by about 19.5 million.

I counted that the SE has 37 of the top 100 ESPN 100 players this year. That just wouldn't have happened 30 years ago ever.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Yeah stever, but most of those kids are playing soccer, not basketball.

I dunno. But the fact that the SE has grown more in the last 10 years than the NE has grown in the last 30 years is huge. And I don't think that's slowing down one bit either. And that's giving the NE Virginia which if you know Virginia just isn't the case one bit. 30 years ago, the NE was bigger than the SE by about 3.4 million. Now the SE is bigger than the NE by about 19.5 million.

I counted that the SE has 37 of the top 100 ESPN 100 players this year. That just wouldn't have happened 30 years ago ever.

Ok the SE is growing. Great. But the fact remains that the single most dense area of the country remains the corridor from DC to Boston and it's not even close. And that just happens to be the same geographic footprint of half of the BE. Now is the SE to you TX to the west, FL to east and VA to the north that represents 1/4 of the continental US? The area I refer to is perhaps 5-8% of the US land mass.

But I'll concede and lets compare the two areas. Now, STEVER, how many major Div 1 BB programs share that geographic footprint you speak of? Most of the ACC, Big12 and pretty much all of the SEC. So let's round it off and say 30-35 programs that get to recruit kids in "their back yard" (which of course we know is a joke because Houston is clearly not in the same backyard as Miami or Fl St or UVA, etc.). But even when we disregard that inconvenient truth, do you think that both are comparable?

Population growth in TX and FL will undoubtedly affect the amount of good HS players in those areas but to stand behind numbers that reference a vast geographic area ("the SE") does very little to move the needle. Want to try again?

[stever20]

Yeah stever, but most of those kids are playing soccer, not basketball.

I dunno. But the fact that the SE has grown more in the last 10 years than the NE has grown in the last 30 years is huge. And I don't think that's slowing down one bit either. And that's giving the NE Virginia which if you know Virginia just isn't the case one bit. 30 years ago, the NE was bigger than the SE by about 3.4 million. Now the SE is bigger than the NE by about 19.5 million.

I counted that the SE has 37 of the top 100 ESPN 100 players this year. That just wouldn't have happened 30 years ago ever.

Ok the SE is growing. Great. But the fact remains that the single most dense area of the country remains the corridor from DC to Boston and it's not even close. And that just happens to be the same geographic footprint of half of the BE. Now is the SE to you is TX to the west, FL to east and VA to the north that rerpesents 1/3 of the continental US? The area I refer to is perhaps 6-8% of the US land mass.

But I'll concede and lets compare the two areas. Now, STEVER, how many major Div 1 BB programs share that geographic footprint you speak of? Most of the ACC, Big12 and pretty much all of the SEC. So let's round it off and say 30-35 programs that get to recruit kids in "their back yard" (which of course we know is a joke because Houston is clearly not in the same backyard as Miami or Fl St or UVA, etc.). But even when we disregard that inconvenient truth, do you think that both are comparable?

Population growth in TX and FL will undoubtedly affect the amount of good HS players in those areas but to stand behind numbers that reference a vast geographic area ("the SE") does very little to move the needle. Want to try again?

my numbers didn't include Virginia with the SE(though really it is) or Kentucky. Just NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, TN, MS, AR, LA, and TX.

While Texas and Florida have grown for sure- it's not just there. Georgia has grown a lot as well- it's now the 9th largest state.

I would also say look at the biggest percent gains in the last 10 years....
Texas 5th- 20.6%
North Carolina 6th- 18.5%
Georgia 7th- 18.3%
Florida 8th 17.6%
South Carolina 10th 15.3%
Virginia 15th 13%

So the Virginia to Florida corridor all has grown considerably.

Meanwhile in the slowest growth
Rhode Island 49th 0.4%
New York 46th 2.1%
Vermont 44th 2.8%
Massachusetts 42nd 3.5%
Pennsylvania 40th 3.4%
Maine 38th 4.2%
New Jersey 36th 4.5%
Connecticut 34th 4.9%

so it's not just TX and FL growing. Georgia and North Carolina both passed New Jersey this Census. Virginia should pass them this next census. Within 20 years Georgia and North Carolina probably pass Pennsylvania. Florida will pass New York for #3 this next census.

Just think of this...
NE in 2010- had 70,173,378/308,745,538- or 22.7% of the country
just 10 yrs ago- had 66,864,454/281,421,906- or 23.7% of the country
in 1980- had 59,296,000/226,545,805- or 26.1% of the country
So- of the 82 million folks that America has added the last 30 years- the NE has only added 10.9 million of them.

Also- if you take Virginia out of the NE that I'm using and putting them in with NC, SC, GA, and FL-
NE- MD to ME has 62,172,354
VA-FL has 50,650,834
30 years ago this comparison:
NE- MD to ME has 53,950,000
VA-FL has 29,542,000

And it's showing in recruits...
this year's top 100 ESPN-
Florida 9
Georgia 6
South Carolina 2
North Carolina 2
Virginia 4
so 23/100 top recruits this year...

for next year
Virginia 2
North Carolina 4
South Carolina 2
Georgia 3
Florida 8
so that's 19/60 top recruits for 2016. (by comparison the entire NE has all of 7).

[robinreed]

Stever,

I must say that I greatly admire your thorough and complete research and concise presentation of stats on basketball in many of your posts however I am in awe of your numbers re population growth and shifts on this thread.

While I do not agree with everything you say on all of your posts on this site the demographic information is truly excellent. I have recently retired from my job as a financial advisor and certainly could have used someone with your talents in making presentations to corporations re their 401K plans as well as plans and projections for individual investors.

Whilst I do not wish to be inordinately intrusive, and do respect your privacy I wonder if you could tell me your profession and if you use these skills in your job?

It is not so much the numbers which impress me, I know those are available on the web. Rather it is the way they are presented and the fact you are able to present them in a coherent and non threatening or aggressive way whilst being accosted by others who may or may not be correct in some of their arguments. These are all excellent qualities in the financial and sales profession.

[billyjack]

India:
2010 population: 1.27 billion.
2020 population: 1.36 billion. <-- estimated.
2030 population: 1.46 billion. <-- estimated.

Look for scouts to soon crack into the fertile recruiting grounds of the Asian Sub-continent.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever thanks for the education on population growth in the SE.

Now let's get back to your statement in which you said, and I quote:

"I wouldn't say that the NE is in a geographic hotbed of talent any longer."

Let's try to stay on topic here. I presented an argument that the DC to Boston corridor has 2x+ as much talent to choose from and less "local" schools competing for that talent in that specific geographic region (300-350 miles radius). I presented the last 4 recruiting cycles as my proof. You countered with an analysis of 1/3 of the continental US, using a radius of about 750-800 miles, and found 1/2 the number of players from the ESPN Top 100. You also didn't comment on the fact that there are substantially more major basketball programs in the SE to compete with than the BE schools within their geographic region.

Let's step away from the in depth analysis on population growth and speak directly about the current state of where HS basketball talent is coming from. Looking at your earlier statement, do you think you may have been a bit off target?

[Bluejay]

What Stever's numbers do not show is how much of the Southern population growth is simply northeastern and midwestern retirees moving south for their golden years.

[ChestRockwell85]

What Stever's numbers do not show is how much of the Southern population growth is simply northeastern and midwestern retirees moving south for their golden years.

It is also people from places like New York who spend $2,000 a month to live in a closet in Manhattan who realize down South that much gets you a house. As a fairly young guy from New York who spent 8 years in NYC, I can tell you, a lot of young people are fed up and know there is an easier way of life. The move South will continue.