It's Official: Kris Dunn Will Return To PC...!

[MUPanther]

Great news for PC. I hope other men will follow Dunn's footsteps one day. Too many players leaving early.

[stever20]

Just going by the data, the 22 year old thing is very real. 7 guys age 22 on draft night getting drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years(with none since 2011-Lilliard and McCollum were 21 on draft night- 22 by start of season). 10 years is kind of important because it's the start of the 1 and done era in college basketball.

Agree the data backs up the fact that 22 year old players don't often get drafted in the Top 10, but it doesn't provide clarity on the reason for this fact. I'd argue that there are many reasons for this. I pointed out a few below with example 1 being the the most important factor contributing to this data.

1) Most players who have any potential to be a Top 10 pick at all leave well before they are 21 years old. Many of them leave when they are 19. Therefore, the sample pool we have of 22 year old players who are talented enough, and have games that translate to the NBA, is very, very small. Extremely small. Put another way, if Jahil Okafor decided to play four seasons at Duke, he'd still be a Top 5 pick.

2) Most 22 year old players have played 4 full seasons of college basketball and have had four full seasons to come closer to reaching their potential. Dunn has played one healthy season. He played another half season injured, as a freshman, playing off the ball while Vincent Council ran PG.

3) Most guys who have a shot at the NBA but stick around four years probably needed the fourth year to solidify their draft status (some obvious exceptions such as McDermott). They either have games that might not translate well to the NBA (Fredette) or they had some hiccups in their career (Jerian Grant academically ineligible).

Honestly, I personally probably would have taken the money now. But I think the 22 year old data has major flaws simply because we don't see many 22 year old draft candidates who ever had the potential to be lottery picks.

The NBA draft is a draft done on potential. It's not about who is good right now. It's about who is going to be good. Very different then the NFL.

I think in some ways just as important that there were only 7 22 yr olds on draft night taken in the top 10 last 10 years- but the fact that only 1 of the 7 of those really panned out- and even that guy- Joakim Noah while being a solid player- only has been an all star 2x. Not even averaging 10 points per game. I think that fact to the NBA personnel folks just backs up their thinking.

Your reasons are very reasonable. I just don't think the NBA folks think that way. Maybe they should! Maybe Dunn is a game changer. I hope so- think the NBA game would be better for it. But I'm not holding my breath on it.

[Bill Marsh]

Just going by the data, the 22 year old thing is very real. 7 guys age 22 on draft night getting drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years(with none since 2011-Lilliard and McCollum were 21 on draft night- 22 by start of season). 10 years is kind of important because it's the start of the 1 and done era in college basketball.

Agree the data backs up the fact that 22 year old players don't often get drafted in the Top 10, but it doesn't provide clarity on the reason for this fact. I'd argue that there are many reasons for this. I pointed out a few below with example 1 being the the most important factor contributing to this data.

1) Most players who have any potential to be a Top 10 pick at all leave well before they are 21 years old. Many of them leave when they are 19. Therefore, the sample pool we have of 22 year old players who are talented enough, and have games that translate to the NBA, is very, very small. Extremely small. Put another way, if Jahil Okafor decided to play four seasons at Duke, he'd still be a Top 5 pick.

2) Most 22 year old players have played 4 full seasons of college basketball and have had four full seasons to come closer to reaching their potential. Dunn has played one healthy season. He played another half season injured, as a freshman, playing off the ball while Vincent Council ran PG.

3) Most guys who have a shot at the NBA but stick around four years probably needed the fourth year to solidify their draft status (some obvious exceptions such as McDermott). They either have games that might not translate well to the NBA (Fredette) or they had some hiccups in their career (Jerian Grant academically ineligible).

Honestly, I personally probably would have taken the money now. But I think the 22 year old data has major flaws simply because we don't see many 22 year old draft candidates who ever had the potential to be lottery picks.

Excellent post. It's about talent evaluation.

It really has nothing to do with age per se. A player doesn't lose value if he waits to be drafted at an older age. In fact, if there are 2 players of exactly the same talent level, the older player could be the one more valued by teams in the draft.

[stever20]

Just going by the data, the 22 year old thing is very real. 7 guys age 22 on draft night getting drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years(with none since 2011-Lilliard and McCollum were 21 on draft night- 22 by start of season). 10 years is kind of important because it's the start of the 1 and done era in college basketball.

Agree the data backs up the fact that 22 year old players don't often get drafted in the Top 10, but it doesn't provide clarity on the reason for this fact. I'd argue that there are many reasons for this. I pointed out a few below with example 1 being the the most important factor contributing to this data.

1) Most players who have any potential to be a Top 10 pick at all leave well before they are 21 years old. Many of them leave when they are 19. Therefore, the sample pool we have of 22 year old players who are talented enough, and have games that translate to the NBA, is very, very small. Extremely small. Put another way, if Jahil Okafor decided to play four seasons at Duke, he'd still be a Top 5 pick.

2) Most 22 year old players have played 4 full seasons of college basketball and have had four full seasons to come closer to reaching their potential. Dunn has played one healthy season. He played another half season injured, as a freshman, playing off the ball while Vincent Council ran PG.

3) Most guys who have a shot at the NBA but stick around four years probably needed the fourth year to solidify their draft status (some obvious exceptions such as McDermott). They either have games that might not translate well to the NBA (Fredette) or they had some hiccups in their career (Jerian Grant academically ineligible).

Honestly, I personally probably would have taken the money now. But I think the 22 year old data has major flaws simply because we don't see many 22 year old draft candidates who ever had the potential to be lottery picks.

Excellent post. It's about talent evaluation.

It really has nothing to do with age per se. A player doesn't lose value if he waits to be drafted at an older age. In fact, if there are 2 players of exactly the same talent level, the older player could be the one more valued by teams in the draft.

In the NFL you might be right. But in the NBA- the younger guy gets drafted earlier every time. They would look at the older guy as being much closer to what they are going to be, while the younger guy who is equal talent level right now would be seen as having more upside.

[Bill Marsh]

Agree the data backs up the fact that 22 year old players don't often get drafted in the Top 10, but it doesn't provide clarity on the reason for this fact. I'd argue that there are many reasons for this. I pointed out a few below with example 1 being the the most important factor contributing to this data.

1) Most players who have any potential to be a Top 10 pick at all leave well before they are 21 years old. Many of them leave when they are 19. Therefore, the sample pool we have of 22 year old players who are talented enough, and have games that translate to the NBA, is very, very small. Extremely small. Put another way, if Jahil Okafor decided to play four seasons at Duke, he'd still be a Top 5 pick.

2) Most 22 year old players have played 4 full seasons of college basketball and have had four full seasons to come closer to reaching their potential. Dunn has played one healthy season. He played another half season injured, as a freshman, playing off the ball while Vincent Council ran PG.

3) Most guys who have a shot at the NBA but stick around four years probably needed the fourth year to solidify their draft status (some obvious exceptions such as McDermott). They either have games that might not translate well to the NBA (Fredette) or they had some hiccups in their career (Jerian Grant academically ineligible).

Honestly, I personally probably would have taken the money now. But I think the 22 year old data has major flaws simply because we don't see many 22 year old draft candidates who ever had the potential to be lottery picks.

Excellent post. It's about talent evaluation.

It really has nothing to do with age per se. A player doesn't lose value if he waits to be drafted at an older age. In fact, if there are 2 players of exactly the same talent level, the older player could be the one more valued by teams in the draft.

In the NFL you might be right. But in the NBA- the younger guy gets drafted earlier every time. They would look at the older guy as being much closer to what they are going to be, while the younger guy who is equal talent level right now would be seen as having more upside.[/quote]

Not true. Age has nothing to do with it. The fact that younger guys get drafted more often is simply a reflection of the fact that the guys with the most talent leave early because there's no point in them waiting. If one of them chooses to wait, he'll get drafted just as high, maybe higher.

The idea that the NBA prefers younger talent is belied by the fact that they out the 1 year/19 years old rule in place. They were obviously tired of taking young kids, based solely on talent and potential. They wanted to see them in some other setting for a year after high school so they could actually be tested. It's the NBA itself saying that it wants their draftees to be a little older.

Like you, I would have advised Dunn to go in the draft now, but not because there's any danger that his stock will fall. I'd hate to see him sustain another injury and miss out on all those millions.

It's a tough call for anyone advising Dunn. At this point, he's only a year away from completing his college degree from a very good school. While he theoretically can go back later and finis, too many don't. And if he goes back, he won't have the academic supports he has now. The research is clear that the younger a student is the more likely he is to finish his degree. OOTH, most NBA players are bankrupt a few years after retirement despite the millions. So, there's a lot to be said for staying in school. We have a college degree for life.

[gosports1]

Maybe Dunn just likes being in school. He may also be the type of person that enjoys accomplishing things (very likely given his atheltic status) Maybe he wants a degree and doesnt want "to quit" before he gets it. Just another milestone. The fun and excitement of senior year. He may also want to see if he can help PC accomplish more. Another BE championshop? deeper run in tourney? record winning percentage? Personal goals in terms of all time standings at Providence and in the BE?

It may be different in pro sports (doubtful) and i dont know the kid, but lets be honest, most of us were more mature and more able to face adult responsibilities at 22 than we were at 19 or 20. I wonder if Shamgod had any influence of his decision. Things were pretty emotional from what i read about his "senior" day this year

[ChelseaFriar]

Just going by the data, the 22 year old thing is very real. 7 guys age 22 on draft night getting drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years(with none since 2011-Lilliard and McCollum were 21 on draft night- 22 by start of season). 10 years is kind of important because it's the start of the 1 and done era in college basketball.

Agree the data backs up the fact that 22 year old players don't often get drafted in the Top 10, but it doesn't provide clarity on the reason for this fact. I'd argue that there are many reasons for this. I pointed out a few below with example 1 being the the most important factor contributing to this data.

1) Most players who have any potential to be a Top 10 pick at all leave well before they are 21 years old. Many of them leave when they are 19. Therefore, the sample pool we have of 22 year old players who are talented enough, and have games that translate to the NBA, is very, very small. Extremely small. Put another way, if Jahil Okafor decided to play four seasons at Duke, he'd still be a Top 5 pick.

2) Most 22 year old players have played 4 full seasons of college basketball and have had four full seasons to come closer to reaching their potential. Dunn has played one healthy season. He played another half season injured, as a freshman, playing off the ball while Vincent Council ran PG.

3) Most guys who have a shot at the NBA but stick around four years probably needed the fourth year to solidify their draft status (some obvious exceptions such as McDermott). They either have games that might not translate well to the NBA (Fredette) or they had some hiccups in their career (Jerian Grant academically ineligible).

Honestly, I personally probably would have taken the money now. But I think the 22 year old data has major flaws simply because we don't see many 22 year old draft candidates who ever had the potential to be lottery picks.

The NBA draft is a draft done on potential. It's not about who is good right now. It's about who is going to be good. Very different then the NFL.

Most people with NBA starter potential leave when they are 19 or 20. Therefore, we have an extremely limited sample pool of 22 year old players with NBA starter potential in the draft. That was exactly my point.

Do you disagree with the fact that most players with NBA starter potential enter the draft before age 22? If you do not disagree with this fact, then you must agree that we have an extremely limited sample pool of 22 year old players who ever had the potential to be lottery picks. Like I said, if Okafor stayed at Duke for four years he is still a Top 5 pick. NBA teams would not pass on him because he is 22. However, he, like almost all other players who are first round candidates, left before they are 22.

[DudeAnon]

Thing is, even if he keeps his 1st round pick status, he is losing millions just by the fact he is playing another year for free. When the average NBA career is probably less than 5 years that is a big deal. I know its cool for your star to return because he loves the school etc.

But frankly, right now I wouldn't hesitate to call Cooley a liar. Dunn is projected to go from 10-23 in the 1st round. He is stupid to not go this year, there is no other way to put it. If he was given good advice he would be going into the draft. Sorry, but thats how I feel.

I remember Tu Holloway was almost unanimously projected to go in the 1st round of the draft his junior year. He decided to stay another year and was involved in the "fight" and put up marginally worse numbers than his junior year. He doesn't get drafted and is now playing in Mexico. Sports is a cruel business, you have to take the money when you can get it.

[stever20]

most people with NBA starter potential leave when they are 19 or 20 because that is the smart thing to do. There is a limited sample pool of 22 year old players, but I think the big fact is of those that did stay long and got taken in the top 10- 7 players- none have been even stars in the league.

About Okafor- it's possible he's still a top 5 pick, but then again, the coaches would have had 6+ chances at learning how to expose all of his weaknesses and beating him that way. Folks that stay longer often do get exposed....

If this had been a normal player with no history of injuries- maybe you could understand it. But given all his history with injuries, and the fact that he would have been the 3rd PG selected most likely- the decision makes no sense for him. I think if it's extreme best case scenario he maybe ups his stock from 12-13 up to 8-9. Not that big of a difference. But I don't want to think about the negative possibilities which there are a lot of.

I do think like gosports said- God Shammgod probably had a big to do about this. The problem for this is he was taken in the 2nd round 17th pick. HUGE difference there. The situations look similar but they really aren't.

[ChelseaFriar]

But frankly, right now I wouldn't hesitate to call Cooley a liar. Dunn is projected to go from 10-23 in the 1st round. He is stupid to not go this year, there is no other way to put it. If he was given good advice he would be going into the draft. Sorry, but thats how I feel.

If Dunn and his very involved father only listened to Cooley's advice, they made a mistake. However, both Dunn and his father are smart men. They clearly took advice from many and all outside sources they could get in touch with, including NBA personnel, and then made a personal decision. I very much doubt what Cooley had to say about Dunn's draft status carried much weight on their decision.

And besides, does anyone here actually know what Cooley said? Besides one random "inside source" tweet, nobody but Kris, his Father and Cooley know what was said between the three of them. But yeah, go ahead and call someone a liar without knowing one word they said.

Tu Holloway was undersized for the NBA, a combo guard trying to become a PG and, quite frankly, he wasn't good enough if he hasn't worked his way back into the league (see Bryce Cotton). The fight was one thing, but he also came across as an immature loser after the fight, which didn't help.