Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[Boyee]

I don't think the current Big East Conference will look at expansion anytime soon unless it is Notre Dame or Connecticut (if they go back to FCS level). I don't think either will happen as Connecticut wants into the ACC and are currently being blocked by Boston College due to UConn suing them for leaving the original Big East Conference and being close in region which would make recruiting harder.

[Bluejay]

This thread has taught me two things and two things only:
1) Dayton fans have never completed a Dale Carnegie course. While it seems unlikely that anyone here has any power to make any decisions on expansion, it is nevertheless normally not a good idea to absolutely trash 2 members of the conference that you so badly want to join. Winning friends and influencing people apparently gives way in Dayton to whining, bitching, pissing on your neighbors porch and egging your colleagues houses.

2) St Bonnies fans are bat shit insane. While the "you make the conference better by adding the shittiest team you can find in the smallest market" is certainly creative, it may well be the dumbest sales pitch in the history of mankind. It honestly is hard to read the pitch and not either roll your eyes, laugh out loud or ask yourself if the poster is just the world's worst troll or is trying way too hard to "think outside of the box." (Honestly, if adding the worst program you can find in a locale that is extremely difficult and costly for your non revenue sports to travel to, why not go with Hawaii or Alaska-Anchorage....or perhaps a SWAC school...you know, really think outside the box!)

[marquette]

WARNING OPINION POST TO FOLLOW
THIS IS ONLY THE CASE IF WE ARE REQUIRED TO EXPAND IN THE NEXT YEAR

If we expand in the near future, it will be because Fox wants it. Fox cares about viewership, but let's not kid ourselves here; college basketball doesn't draw high ratings outside a few programs. If fox demands expansion it will be for inventory, probably because they didn't get as much of the B1G as they wanted. Fox will care about getting good teams but they know that nobody out there, not even UConn, doubles the current viewership.

That brings us to what the schools care about We care about attendance, recruiting, filling MSG, institutional alignment. If that is the case, then the presidents will probably go with SLU and Dayton. I doubt the presidents are willing to take a school that plays in an arena smaller than 10,000 seats. This was common among the original 3 schools and is the reason Siena got more than a cursory glance originally (note Butler's arena is under 10,000 but was not when the expansion decision was made).

Dayton delivers attendance in a 13,000 plus seat arena. They watch college ball. They provide ready-made story lines with several BE teams. They are a like-minded institution. They are investing in themselves by paying their coach and adding to athletics. They also bring solid ancillary sports, particularly on the women's side. Annoying fan base? Seems like it. Although I've met exactly two UD fans in real life and both of them were lovely people. Is that going to have an impact on the presidents? Probably not. They have enough on-court success to make it so nobody is left scratching their heads.

SLU delivers a 10,000 plus seat arena, some recent history, some long-term history, a minor but worth noting rivalry with Marquette from the CUSA days, a basketball program that has had 14 winning seasons in the last 20, a high dollar donor in Dr. Chaifetz who won't let the program stay down, excellent academics, and a fertile recruiting ground. They are investing in their program, as can be seen with their new arena and the fact that they even went out and hired Majerus in the first place. They also bring a solid soccer program to the BE, which is one of the sports this conference is dedicated to. They have their warts, but this season is not indicative of where they are going.

WHY NOT...?
Gonzaga: Nothing has changed since the last round of expansion. Gonzaga had the reputation, success, visibility, and best resume of any of the original candidates. They were not added because it is too far to Spokane, they don't have a large arena, their fans won't travel to MSG, and we won't get much of a recruiting boost by playing in Washington.

VCU: They are still public. Dumb as it is, the presidents have made it pretty clear that the only path for a public school to join the BE is if they join with UConn.

Richmond: Too small, fans don't travel well, arena not big enough, not enough on court success.

Davidson: Too small, fans don't travel well, too far south.

EDIT: The arena and attendance things are about looking like a big time conference. We want to be perceived as one of the power conferences, so we need large arenas that are full. When the other power conferences are drawing around 8-10,000/game, we can't have schools that aren't even capable of seating that many. Additionally, facilities sell the school to recruits. We need to be able to say "hey, you can play here, this practice facility is for you, look at all our shiny toys."

SECOND EDIT: This is all predicated on the fact that Georgetown goes along with it. If they are stuck on requiring an eastern school of their choosing, as was rumored to be the compromise when MU and DePaul insisted on Creighton. If that's the case, then Richmond is back on the table. It then becomes a struggle between SLU and Dayton.

[Hoyas]

I think SLU has to show that they have a pulse before they even get close to being added. Look at their recruiting. They have 1 3 star, 1 2 star, and 1 guy with no stars. I know recruiting is inexact- but wow.

And I definitely think Georgetown is going to balk at adding 2 more Midwestern schools. Think Richmond has a shot there. Then it becomes Dayton vs SLU- and Dayton should win that easily.

[ChestRockwell85]

Marquette, that was one of the better posts I've seen on this topic EVER. WELL DONE....just very well done.

[DudeAnon]

This thread has taught me two things and two things only:
1) Dayton fans have never completed a Dale Carnegie course. While it seems unlikely that anyone here has any power to make any decisions on expansion, it is nevertheless normally not a good idea to absolutely trash 2 members of the conference that you so badly want to join. Winning friends and influencing people apparently gives way in Dayton to whining, bitching, pissing on your neighbors porch and egging your colleagues houses.

+1. If Dayton fans weren't such assholes it would be easier to argue for them.

[augkash]

This thread has taught me two things and two things only:
1) Dayton fans have never completed a Dale Carnegie course. While it seems unlikely that anyone here has any power to make any decisions on expansion, it is nevertheless normally not a good idea to absolutely trash 2 members of the conference that you so badly want to join. Winning friends and influencing people apparently gives way in Dayton to whining, bitching, pissing on your neighbors porch and egging your colleagues houses.

+1. If Dayton fans weren't such assholes it would be easier to argue for them.

Wow I've been nothing but nice on here. Sorry I like basketball and I'm a Dayton fan but like I said before I liked big east basketball growing up.

[Xudash]

If we have to expand in the next year, or if we have to expand in the next two or three years, and we have to do that by picking from A10 schools, does anyone believe Fox would true-up the revenue per school by adding such schools? Is the presumption that, assuming our existing 10 schools are failing at generating some needed ratings benchmark, that adding some combination of two A10 schools is going to get us over the hump such that Fox would true it up? If Fox has to expand for INVENTORY, would they pay an additional approx. $9.4 million per year for those two schools for the balance of the Fox Agreement?

Otherwise, is the presumption here that, with Fox demanding a solution for more INVENTORY through the Big East, that they would somehow modify what apparently is a fixed agreement, diluting the payouts to the existing 10 members by adding the two schools, but at the same $500 million overall effective bucket over the original 12 year period: 10 schools at about $4.2 million per year would adjust to 12 schools at about $3.5 million per year. Even that dilution would probably not be enough, because any two A10 schools would not be accretive enough to make the numbers work.

If the question becomes one focused on INVENTORY, why solve that through the existing Big East Agreement? Why not offer the A10 a package that sufficiently exceeds its existing paltry $300k'ish per school? You could pay the A10 about $10 million per year, doubling their existing TV package, while picking up 14 teams worth of inventory in the process. Perhaps Fox could look at the Mountain West Conference instead, assuming they believe that would be a more attractive option. Of course, the issue is whether or not some other conference is in any position to break its existing television deal, while otherwise making the numbers work for Fox.

marquette wrote an excellent, balanced post. Fox does care about viewership. College basketball is so abundant that high ratings are hard to come by. It's just that, if our existing 10 schools are having trouble with viewership numbers on a go-forward basis, is that because of the schools, is that because of FoxSports1 still growing out of its startup mode, or is that because of a combination of those two things. It gets back to the basic timing premise: not enough of that has expired yet to know where this is headed. The Big East has work to do. Fox has work to do. Two years is too soon to pass judgement on performance. Fox and the Big East probably need about 4 or 5 years to assess their position, which also gives them time to continue to watch developments on the football side of things.

Fox cares about viewership. The existing 10 schools care about viewership primarily as well, because that is what Fox cares about. Other program attributes are secondary. In fact, they would come with any program that does deliver viewership in a meaningful, accretive way. That gets us back to expansion solutions that don't exist today. Otherwise, if Fox believes it has to solve for INVENTORY, its probably can create options for doing that beyond having to pursue adjustments to the existing Big East, which touches upon that brand management thing again.

[ChestRockwell85]

Again, Marquette nailed it. We can argue until we are blue in the face but the only schools (if we could only take 2) that make sense for THE BIG EAST (remember, we are talking about THE BIG EAST here, remember what type of schools this conference is made up of) are Dayton and St. Louis.

I would love a Boston school, there just aren't any that make sense. I'd love Gonzaga, for basketball we could probably find a way to make it work, but since we are talking about taking a school for ALL sports, there is no reason a field hockey team in Philadelphia needs to fly to the state of Washington for a 2 hour game. It just isn't logical.

[Bostonspider]

And I definitely think Georgetown is going to balk at adding 2 more Midwestern schools. Think Richmond has a shot there. Then it becomes Dayton vs SLU- and Dayton should win that easily.

This is what I had heard from UR's President. Also that Nova was on the same page as Georgetown, but again that was 18 months ago. As to the Robin Center being too small, UR could always play a few games down at the Richmond Coliseum if needed. It is not as nice as the stunning on campus arena, but it seats 12,000 for basketball.





But as I said I don't think it is near as nice, nor looks as good on TV as UR's own arena