by marquette » Mon Apr 13, 2015 11:08 pm
WARNING OPINION POST TO FOLLOW
THIS IS ONLY THE CASE IF WE ARE REQUIRED TO EXPAND IN THE NEXT YEAR
If we expand in the near future, it will be because Fox wants it. Fox cares about viewership, but let's not kid ourselves here; college basketball doesn't draw high ratings outside a few programs. If fox demands expansion it will be for inventory, probably because they didn't get as much of the B1G as they wanted. Fox will care about getting good teams but they know that nobody out there, not even UConn, doubles the current viewership.
That brings us to what the schools care about We care about attendance, recruiting, filling MSG, institutional alignment. If that is the case, then the presidents will probably go with SLU and Dayton. I doubt the presidents are willing to take a school that plays in an arena smaller than 10,000 seats. This was common among the original 3 schools and is the reason Siena got more than a cursory glance originally (note Butler's arena is under 10,000 but was not when the expansion decision was made).
Dayton delivers attendance in a 13,000 plus seat arena. They watch college ball. They provide ready-made story lines with several BE teams. They are a like-minded institution. They are investing in themselves by paying their coach and adding to athletics. They also bring solid ancillary sports, particularly on the women's side. Annoying fan base? Seems like it. Although I've met exactly two UD fans in real life and both of them were lovely people. Is that going to have an impact on the presidents? Probably not. They have enough on-court success to make it so nobody is left scratching their heads.
SLU delivers a 10,000 plus seat arena, some recent history, some long-term history, a minor but worth noting rivalry with Marquette from the CUSA days, a basketball program that has had 14 winning seasons in the last 20, a high dollar donor in Dr. Chaifetz who won't let the program stay down, excellent academics, and a fertile recruiting ground. They are investing in their program, as can be seen with their new arena and the fact that they even went out and hired Majerus in the first place. They also bring a solid soccer program to the BE, which is one of the sports this conference is dedicated to. They have their warts, but this season is not indicative of where they are going.
WHY NOT...?
Gonzaga: Nothing has changed since the last round of expansion. Gonzaga had the reputation, success, visibility, and best resume of any of the original candidates. They were not added because it is too far to Spokane, they don't have a large arena, their fans won't travel to MSG, and we won't get much of a recruiting boost by playing in Washington.
VCU: They are still public. Dumb as it is, the presidents have made it pretty clear that the only path for a public school to join the BE is if they join with UConn.
Richmond: Too small, fans don't travel well, arena not big enough, not enough on court success.
Davidson: Too small, fans don't travel well, too far south.
EDIT: The arena and attendance things are about looking like a big time conference. We want to be perceived as one of the power conferences, so we need large arenas that are full. When the other power conferences are drawing around 8-10,000/game, we can't have schools that aren't even capable of seating that many. Additionally, facilities sell the school to recruits. We need to be able to say "hey, you can play here, this practice facility is for you, look at all our shiny toys."
SECOND EDIT: This is all predicated on the fact that Georgetown goes along with it. If they are stuck on requiring an eastern school of their choosing, as was rumored to be the compromise when MU and DePaul insisted on Creighton. If that's the case, then Richmond is back on the table. It then becomes a struggle between SLU and Dayton.
This is my opinion. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
Class of '16