Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[butlerguy03]

This thread is dumb.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

DePaul (10), Seton Hall (9), St Johns (8), and whomever of (alphabetically) Butler, Marquette, Providence, or Xavier; as the potential 7th place squad - can use the cushion provided by adding depth at the bottom (Dayton and another school).

Adding depth to the bottom assures the top and middle have better records come tourney time.

If you wish to 'add depth to the bottom', I'm not sure that Dayton is a good choice.

2-Year Average RPI Ranking - Team - 2014 Final RPI Ranking - 2015 Final RPI Ranking

7 - Villanova - 8 - 6
31 - Dayton - 33 - 29
35 - Providence - 46 - 25
42 - Xavier - 56 - 28
49 - Georgetown - 75 - 24
66 - St. John's - 82 - 50
87 - Creighton - 17 - 157
92 - Butler - 154 - 30
119 - Marquette - 94 - 145
120 - Seton Hall - 136 - 105
177 - DePaul - 157 - 197

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/rpi ; http://www.udpride.com/images/rpi.htm

In 2014-15, Dayton started one senior, one junior, and three sophomores. The Flyers had six Division I players, none taller than 6'-6". Dayton will be replacing Jordan Sibert with 6 or 7 new players, giving the Flyers the depth they have lacked the past two seasons.

The consensus among the Flyer Faithful is that the 2015-16 Flyers will be Archie's best team yet, and that the 2016-17 Flyers will be even better (when the three sophomores are seniors). The Flyers are 5-2 in the NCAA Tournament since the NBE formed, with more NCAA Tournament wins expected over the next two seasons.

[Hoyas]

In terms of the actual conference- I don't think it matters which way you go with the addition. People say if you add a real good team than Xavier maybe doesn't make the tourney. Maybe true, but in Xavier's place, that real good team makes the tourney.

I can find 3 conferences right now that have 12 teams that play 18 conference games... Big Sky, MAC, and Pac 12. Here's the average # of conference wins for those 3 in the last 2 years(Big Sky just this year as they went from 20 down to 18)
1st 14.2
2nd 13
3rd 12.2
4th 11.4
5th 10.2
6th 9.6
7th 8.6(with a 10-8 and a 9-9 team in there)
8th 8(with a 9-9 team and 3 8-10 teams in there)

So seeing that, if the 6th-8th place teams have played a good OOC schedule, they would have a real fighting chance of making the tourney. Just looking at the Pac 12 last year- they had a 5 way tie at 10-8 for 3rd-7th. 4 of those 5 got in the tourney, and the other was Cal, who was a 2 seed in the NIT, so they were pretty close to making it as well. Utah who finished in a tie for 8th-9th also made the NIT at 9-9- and that was because their OOC wasn't good- #350 in the country bad actually. The unbalanced schedule at 12 even is amazing- you don't see 4 teams a 2nd time.

[billyjack]

If we add, it should be with the best team possible. Gonzaga, maybe Dayton, maybe VCU.

In my opinion, adding a mediocre team for the main purpose of boosting the other 10 of us and gaming our W-L records is not a good idea. And what has St Bonaventure's OOC record been over the years? They're not a team that I remember ever overachieving except for a year or 2 with Nicholson.

[aughnanure]

We're not adding a school with less than 2,000 undergraduates.

Other, better options, include:
Gonzaga, SLU, Dayton, VCU, Wichita St, St. Mary's, Davidson, Richmond, BU, Siena, etc.

[Michael in Raleigh]

An interesting question to explore is how frustrated UConn becomes with the American conference. The only regional, albeit completely lacking in history, "rivalry" is Temple. Aside from the Owls, the only other highly recognizable brand name teams in the league are Cincinnati and Memphis. To look at it optimistically, yes, the league does have some coaches who, in time, could help their teams make some noise and go to the NCAA tournament (Haith at Tulsa, Brown at SMU, Sampson at Houston, maybe even Lebo at ECU). Will UConn fans still be excited to see their Huskies play those teams?

A bigger question is this: What happens if the American loses one or two teams to the Big 12, not including UConn, and no one else picks up UConn, either? Imagine the Big 12 taking Cincinnati and Memphis or UCF. Does UConn still opt to stick it out with an even further watered-down conference? In other words, at what point does UConn start looking at alternatives (provided that the B1G and ACC aren't alternatives)? What's the straw that breaks the camel's back?

Would UConn explore independence for football if the AAC lost two more members? I can imagine that FS1 would be willing to at least match what UConn is making in the AAC for their football program's home games (which would be around $2 million/year) just so the 4-time national champion UConn hoops program could be in the Big East. Heck, Fox might be willing to pay much more than that.

Would sticking football in the MAC be too much of a setback to the football program to be acceptable? What about something creative, like football-only membership in the MWC, allowing those schools east coast exposure and a deal where 2-4 schools get to play UConn in hoops every year? Honestly, there wouldn't be all that significant of a step down in football competition from the AAC to the MWC, and the Big East would not only give them more money, they'd help salvage some of what was lost in their premier sport.

Anyway, I know this seems far fetched. But there has to be a point where UConn has had enough of a league where everyone is leaving, everything is spread out, and there is no history or regional rivalry.

Honestly, I think holding out for an all-time gem like UConn would be much more worthwhile than expanding almost for expansion's sake with someone like St. Bonaventure or even Dayton or Saint Louis. The league is in very good shape financially and in stability. It could go without expansion and be just fine without threat of being raided, and it could continue getting 5+ teams (50% or more) into the tournament with or without adding new teams, plus it could continue to enjoy the double round robin format, for years to come.

[stever20]

1 thing that I think keeps UConn from leaving the AAC ever is Women's Basketball. Right now, with ESPN, they get a ton of visibility in OOC games, even during the conference season. I don't see that ability if they go to the Big East. I think that just as much as football keeps them in the AAC. At least until Geno leaves. Which just looking may not be as far off as you would think- he is 61 years old now. He could tie John Wooden tonight for the most NCAA titles at 10. You wonder he wins tonight and again next year, another Olympics, similar to Coach K, could that be it?

[Jet915]

An interesting question to explore is how frustrated UConn becomes with the American conference. The only regional, albeit completely lacking in history, "rivalry" is Temple. Aside from the Owls, the only other highly recognizable brand name teams in the league are Cincinnati and Memphis. To look at it optimistically, yes, the league does have some coaches who, in time, could help their teams make some noise and go to the NCAA tournament (Haith at Tulsa, Brown at SMU, Sampson at Houston, maybe even Lebo at ECU). Will UConn fans still be excited to see their Huskies play those teams?

A bigger question is this: What happens if the American loses one or two teams to the Big 12, not including UConn, and no one else picks up UConn, either? Imagine the Big 12 taking Cincinnati and Memphis or UCF. Does UConn still opt to stick it out with an even further watered-down conference? In other words, at what point does UConn start looking at alternatives (provided that the B1G and ACC aren't alternatives)? What's the straw that breaks the camel's back?

Would UConn explore independence for football if the AAC lost two more members? I can imagine that FS1 would be willing to at least match what UConn is making in the AAC for their football program's home games (which would be around $2 million/year) just so the 4-time national champion UConn hoops program could be in the Big East. Heck, Fox might be willing to pay much more than that.

Would sticking football in the MAC be too much of a setback to the football program to be acceptable? What about something creative, like football-only membership in the MWC, allowing those schools east coast exposure and a deal where 2-4 schools get to play UConn in hoops every year? Honestly, there wouldn't be all that significant of a step down in football competition from the AAC to the MWC, and the Big East would not only give them more money, they'd help salvage some of what was lost in their premier sport.

Anyway, I know this seems far fetched. But there has to be a point where UConn has had enough of a league where everyone is leaving, everything is spread out, and there is no history or regional rivalry.

Honestly, I think holding out for an all-time gem like UConn would be much more worthwhile than expanding almost for expansion's sake with someone like St. Bonaventure or even Dayton or Saint Louis. The league is in very good shape financially and in stability. It could go without expansion and be just fine without threat of being raided, and it could continue getting 5+ teams (50% or more) into the tournament with or without adding new teams, plus it could continue to enjoy the double round robin format, for years to come.

I agree, wait for UCONN or another round of expansion before we decide to do something. There is no rush IMO.

[Xudash]

Nice little excerpt from an article about Father Lennon regarding how Creighton got the Big East invite:

Joining the BIG EAST
Of all the accomplishments, receiving an invitation to join the BIG EAST Conference was probably the most visible.

“That was fun … well, I can say that now,” Fr. Lannon says with a laugh, recalling the process. “At the time, it was like a roller coaster.”

Fr. Lannon jokes that he and Athletic Director Bruce Rasmussen, to whom he gives much of the credit for Creighton’s acceptance, used to play a little game called “What are the odds?” — playing out various scenarios and Creighton’s chances of receiving an invite.

“At the beginning, I don’t think Bruce would go beyond 10 or 15 percent,” Fr. Lannon says.

As things started falling into place, Fr. Lannon remembers receiving a precisely worded call from a lawyer representing the BIG EAST schools. “He said to me, ‘This is not an offer; let me be very clear about this.’” He asked that Fr. Lannon sign a confidentiality agreement, after which, the lawyer continued, “I will share with you an agreement if we decided to invite Creighton.”

“Basically he was telling me if you were invited, this is what an agreement would look like,” Fr. Lannon says.

Fr. Lannon was in a regular meeting with his leadership cabinet, when a familiar name popped up on his cell phone.

“I normally don’t take calls during a meeting, but this time I excused myself.”

It was from his friend Fr. Dennis Holtschneider, president of DePaul University, a BIG EAST school. “It’s with great pleasure, and I’ve been delegated by the seven presidents, to call you to invite Creighton to join the BIG EAST,” Fr. Holtschneider said.

“I told him, ‘This is a great honor. We’re very excited,’” Fr. Lannon recalls.

The partnership was announced on March 20, 2013, in New York on Fox Sports, with Fr. Lannon and the other BIG EAST presidents in attendance, and Creighton officially became a member at 12:01 a.m. on July 1, 2013 — joining other newcomers Butler and Xavier in the league with DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Villanova.

http://www.creighton.edu/creightonmagazine/2015sprfeaturelannon/?utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=CU_Mag&utm_content=Farewell_Lannono

I love that story. Creighton doesn't have to defend its position in the Big East to anyone. Otherwise, it does remind me of all the drama that took place back then as the Big East was coming back together through the C7. It was a proud day for all of us when the big announcement took place in NYC at Fox's HQ's.

I imagine there are those in the old guard among the C7 schools who still wonder about what happened; about why did the BE have to break-up over football. Yet the Presidents have managed to do this thing the right way - retaining the Big East name, pinning down the Big East Tournament deal for its continuation at MSG. Obviously, being at the right place at the right time for the FS1 deal.

What was particularly enjoyable to see this year was the essence of the Big East Tournament. It's clear to me now that it is a NY institution. Hell, they lit up the Empire State Building for it. It's not that you want to put 10 Little Sisters of the Poor in there and think that that would cut it, but we don't have to worry about that with the 10 BE schools we have now anyway.

And that's the larger point: the 10 schools and how they're trending together. Villanova in the Top 10 most of the year and securing a #1 Seed. 6 bids. How many conference teams ranked during the course of the season? Television viewership trending up. A successful Big East Tournament from MSG's point of view. All of that two years into the mission. The Presidents, Fox and MSG are not pushing the panic button. They're not even considering it. They don't need to consider it.

The future? Only brighter from the looks of things. Wojo is going to turn Marquette into a terror - look at his initial recruiting haul. Mullin at St. Johns is going to be a fascinating thing to watch. My truly unemotional guess - the guy is a proven success in what he has done till now - is that the Johnnies are going to be strong moving forward as well. Georgetown and Nova? Solid. Xavier and Butler? Solid. Providence under Cooley? Love it. Creighton? I'm not worried about a classy program and school that puts 17k in the seats. Greg McDermott is rebuilding the Bluejays from his son's departure, if you can even call that rebuilding. Seton Hall has proven that it can recruit. It now has to put the rest of it together. DePaul? Talk about wasted potential. But at least they got rid of Purnell and their new building can only help. We'll see how the retread works out. Overall, there are no less than 8 solid basketball programs in this conference. Even then, all 10 team generated the results noted earlier.

Anyway, JPSchmack, what I laid out on the program side supports Dayton's inclusion under most of those criteria, but where Dayton is a hot mess is in the most important area: its resume. Notwithstanding these last two seasons, Dayton historically has done so much less with more it's not even funny, and its own fans know that: only 8 trips since 1985 when the Tournament took on its modern form with 64 teams; 6 trips in the last 15 years. 7 Units in 30 years; 6 Units in the last 15. It's performance in the A10 has been characterized by many A10 fans as watching Dayton anoint itself as pre-season champion every year only to watch it bat around .500 in conference play most years. And all this comes in the context of Dayton's terrible record of picking coaches. That has to be a consideration at this point because, regardless of what some of the more blinded UD fans think, Dayton is not a destination and UD is not a destination job. Archie's last name is MILLER. He will exit Dayton soon enough. Given UD's track record with coaches, it will be interesting to see if they can string together back-to-back good hiring decisions. Lastly, what Fieldhouse Flyer doesn't understand is the true level of talent in the Big East. It really hit home to me this year. Big. Tall. Athletic. And everywhere. Xavier was used to being the Flagship in the A10 after it settled into it, but none of that prepared me for the wars that were fought in the Big East night in and night out this past season. You just don't see players like Dunn and most of Villanova's roster in the A10. It was obvious that the C7 had already been recruiting at the Big East level for years. I still see Xavier as adjusting to this level. Last year's recruiting class for Xavier would not have been possible in the A10. Yet I'm continuing to prepare myself for conference seasons where Xavier loses a lot more games than it is used to losing.

With all that noted, none of program-centric stuff is as big a burning issue for me as the television thing when it comes to Dayton. It simply doesn't make sense to me for the conference to "consolidate" its Ohio position. UD wasn't even considered when the Big East was being put together originally. The last two years haven't changed that picture; two years does not make for evidencing an established trend of sustainable success, especially given UD's track record. That's the problem with many UD fans. They have two years of Tournament participation and some of them are literally taking the position that UD is just as good as any team in the Big East. They haven't proven that they can sustain success. And, again, Archie isn't long for Dayton, OH anyway.

The only thing I believe right now with some confidence is that the Big East Conference is not expanding for the foreseeable future. I'll put it that way: "foreseeable future." Look at this thread. This team has x, but it lacks y. This team has y, but it lacks x. This team has z in spades, but it has never heard of x and y. There are no clear answers. Once again, if they originally had the option to go to 12 with a Fox true-up, they obviously didn't get themselves there for their reasons.

And all that is against the backdrop of the Big East Conference coming off a successful year. It wasn't good that only one team punched into the round of S16, but the total body of work was still sufficiently strong to mark the season down as a success, and with everything trending in the right direction. There is nothing to fix with the TV thing - yet, if ever. There may be no perceived need to attempt to game for more NCAA Units, especially when you put 60% of your conference into the Tournament in a given year.

[mel ott]

nice summary. It's great to be in the Big East. Like others have said, I also enjoy watching the Big East games even when Creighton isn't playing. It's fun to get to know these teams that well when they come to visit. Also, I don't care initially if more watch ESPN- I'm thrilled that fans, alumni, and prospective athletes can catch every one of our games nationally! Huge advantage across the board for all of our teams.