ESPN Early top 25

[Hoyas]

Being where they were this year- a fringe top 10 team- is completely different than being a top 4 team. Totally different attention.
I think if Iowa St was projected to only be a top 10-15 team instead of top 2-4 team- it'd make the decision a lot easier for him.

As far as the others-
Think X will be really good next year.
Agree about Butler- it'll be a lot different type of team next year.
PC with Dunn- everything hinges on if he's back or not.
Nova I think could take a step back next year. So instead of going 16-2 maybe only 13-5 or 14-4. Probably helps the conference out!
I see Marquette as a sleeper team(though NBC had them in the top 25).

[BigmanU]

Being where they were this year- a fringe top 10 team- is completely different than being a top 4 team. Totally different attention.
I think if Iowa St was projected to only be a top 10-15 team instead of top 2-4 team- it'd make the decision a lot easier for him.

As far as the others-
Think X will be really good next year.
Agree about Butler- it'll be a lot different type of team next year.
PC with Dunn- everything hinges on if he's back or not.
Nova I think could take a step back next year. So instead of going 16-2 maybe only 13-5 or 14-4. Probably helps the conference out!
I see Marquette as a sleeper team(though NBC had them in the top 25).

Pretty dead on. Especially the Marquette piece. If they have any production at PG. Watch out!. If not, it actually would be a lot of wasted talent up front and a missed opportunity.

Villanova
Xavier
Butler-defense will be a big question mark
Georgetown-Freshman to Sophomore jump
Marquette-PG production

[gtmoBlue]

Hoyas wrote:
Being where they were this year- a fringe top 10 team- is completely different than being a top 4 team. Totally different attention.
I think if Iowa St was projected to only be a top 10-15 team instead of top 2-4 team- it'd make the decision a lot easier for him.

As far as the others-
Think X will be really good next year.
Agree about Butler- it'll be a lot different type of team next year.
PC with Dunn- everything hinges on if he's back or not.
Nova I think could take a step back next year. So instead of going 16-2 maybe only 13-5 or 14-4. Probably helps the conference out!
I see Marquette as a sleeper team(though NBC had them in the top 25).

Pretty dead on. Especially the Marquette piece. If they have any production at PG. Watch out!. If not, it actually would be a lot of wasted talent up front and a missed opportunity.

Villanova
Xavier
Butler-defense will be a big question mark
Georgetown-Freshman to Sophomore jump
Marquette-PG production

BigmanU

You accidentally left one out. I inserted for you (order of finish) - no problem.

Creighton
Villanova
Xavier
Marquette
Georgetown/Butler
Butler/Georgetown

[stever20]

Lunardi's bracketology out for next year...
Butler 8 seed east vs 9 Rhode Island, then 1 Virginia in Raleigh(UVA overall #1 seed).
Villanova 1 seed West vs 16 High Point, then 8 Cincy/9 Texas A&M in Brooklyn
Providence 10 seed west vs 7 SMU, then 2 Iowa St in Oklahoma City
Georgetown 9 seed South vs 8 Iowa, then 1 Kentucky in St Louis
Xavier 7 seed South vs 10 Illinois, then 2 Duke in Brooklyn

Providence the 3rd team in with a bye.

other interesting stuff...
Tulsa 4th team out of the tourney(I know that'll make everyone's day!)
AAC with 4 teams in.
A10 with 3 in.
Only 8 conferences with multi bids next year. MWC, MVC, and WCC only 1 team each. Of the 1st 8 out of tourney, only Northern Iowa could change that.
SEC with 7 teams in- and 1st 2 teams out.

[Butlerfan28]

Can't imagine Butler not being ranked given who they have coming back along with Lewis, the NC State transfer replacing Barlow.

Kameron Woods, the Big East's leading rebounder, is also gone. Barlow was enormously important to their success.

I am not sure how good we will be. We won a lot of games based on Defense and both Barlow and Kam were major contributors. Can the offense improvement make up for defensive decline.

[NovaBall]

A couple of points:

It is essentially that the teams perform well out of conference. Top to bottom in the conference, and not just "big wins" but avoid rpi poison on the schedule and avoid bad losses. I'm looking at you, Dave leitao!! This is where conference rpi is molded, and it can mean the difference in number of teams dancing and seed lines.

I think nova will have more losses next year and a 3-5 seed is more likely than a 1 or 2 seed

The conference looks super again next year. Most teams are entering the season with realistic expectations of fighting for a tourney bid, and there are a number of teams that can realistically hope to be ranked next season.

[Hoyas]

To a large degree, it's the individual teams that matter in determining the # of bids. The key is going to be for the 4th-6th place teams are they solid enough to where if they finish 9-9 in conference play they can make it in. That is the key in getting those specific teams in the tourney.

This year we got Xavier who was 6th at 9-9 had gone 10-3 in the OOC play and then won 2 BET games. Entered the BET at 19-12. St John's at 5th who had gone 10-2 vs D1 in OOC play and then gone 10-8 in conference play. so 20-10.

Compare that to Marquette the year before. They had gone 8-5 in OOC play and were also 9-9 in conference play. They entered the conference tourney at 17-14 with little shot of an at large bid even if they had made the finals.

I mean your concept Ball of needing teams to avoid RPI poison- that pretty much got exposed this year with DePaul. DePaul was the #276 team OOC last year. Yet that didn't stop the Big East from getting 6 teams in. Heck Marquette was #144 OOC.

The individual teams matter a lot more than the conference does. I mean, the A10 got 6 teams in the tourney last year as the #8 conference. That should say something there.

[NovaBall]

I think the ooc conference rpi is huge. That's how the committee can justify a 9-9 team from the big east over a 9-9 team from another conference. And with the ten team round robin format, we are going to have 9-9 teams on the bubble. Xavier ended up as a 6 seed, showing they were nowhere near the bubble. I do think that the conference rpi gave them a safety net as 9-9 in the #2 conference looks a lot better than 9-9 in the #5 conference. Xavier's ooc 10-3 effort isn't what had them comfortably in, it was because .500 in a real tough conference means something.

They say teams get bids, not conferences, and I agree. But if you are a 9-9 team I would rather be from the rpi 1 or 2 conference than the rpi 5th or 6th conference.

I don't think depaul's ooc rpi shows I am wrong, I think that shows that the league got 6 teams in despite one team really tanking.

[Hoyas]

I think the ooc conference rpi is huge. That's how the committee can justify a 9-9 team from the big east over a 9-9 team from another conference. And with the ten team round robin format, we are going to have 9-9 teams on the bubble. Xavier ended up as a 6 seed, showing they were nowhere near the bubble. I do think that the conference rpi gave them a safety net as 9-9 in the #2 conference looks a lot better than 9-9 in the #5 conference. Xavier's ooc 10-3 effort isn't what had them comfortably in, it was because .500 in a real tough conference means something.

They say teams get bids, not conferences, and I agree. But if you are a 9-9 team I would rather be from the rpi 1 or 2 conference than the rpi 5th or 6th conference.

I don't think depaul's ooc rpi shows I am wrong, I think that shows that the league got 6 teams in despite one team really tanking.

Xavier was #6 in large part due to the fact that they had the 2 BET(top 25) wins along with the 10 OOC wins. Xavier at 21-13 looks a lot better than say if they had gone 8-5 in the OOC and lost 1st rd of the BET. They would have been 17-15 and had zero chance of getting in. When you are 9-9, what you do in the 13 OOC games along with your conference tourney will totally determine what your fate is.

[NovaBall]

If xavier lost in the first round of the big east tourney, I think they were still comfortable in the dance. I think that was because the conference was viewed as so strong, not because xavier lit it up with a 10-3 out of conference record. It wasn't the Murray state, cincy, Alabama and Murray state wins against the long beach st and auburn losses ooc that saved the day for xavier. It was the strength of the big east.

Xavier was safe even with a first round loss in the big east tourney. But if the big east were the 5th rated conference, I'm not sure a team with a similar profile (provided they lost in bet) was getting in.

Often times it is the strength of conference in rpi that puts one team over the top or another team out. Xavier's ooc effort this past year was not the type of barn burning performance that set them apart and got them in.


Also, the overall conference rpi being better (based on ooc portion) helps make sure that the middle of the pack teams maintain top 50 status rather than drop to the 60'is or 70's. The difference between rpi #45 and rpi #65 is not that great in terms of computer numbers. But the difference between a top 50 win versus a win v #65 can be significant for bubble teams.