Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[Xudash]

See you Monday Morning in the Fox Sports main office.

Well, let's make it an afternoon meeting. We're coming off Easter and I can't get to LA that quickly.

Early dinner on me at The South Beverly Grill. That's the least I can do.

I'll text Shanks tomorrow and see if we can delay the meeting until 1 PM. He's an early morning guy. If you can get to Indy tomorrow, you can ride out with me. And oh yeah, wear your sweater vest.

Um, tomorrow is Easter; I'm not traveling to Indiana tomorrow.

Ride what (to Los Angeles)?

I don't own a sweater vest. You're confusing me with another fan base.

Why don't you go ahead and pop out to see him about this. Let us know how you make out with him.

[Butlerfan28]

What I am talking about is witnessing a reaction after watching someone walk in a DMA with fewer than 470k television homes in it, touting a 1.9 metered rating, as he offers all that up as strong proof for inclusion.

If all that is to take place in the context of which program should be #11 or #12 for expansion purposes and that the timing for expansion is now (why focus on this current data otherwise) and given that the primary dialogue would be around TELEVISION MARKETS/POTENTIAL/VIEWERSHIP, I personally see that resulting in a chuckle or two.

What two programs are going to add incrementally now or later that "save" the existing 10 of us from our existing ratings, or possibly poor ratings in the future?

The BE brand needs to have a chance to build as configured, unless some presently not obvious options pop to make the Presidents feel differently. Some of us speculate, reasonably or through hope or otherwise. Some of us hear things. Even if we hear things, stuff happens, so change is always possible. I'll grant anyone that.

This has ZERO to with UD or any other school, from the whatever it's worth department, the Big East is holding at 10 for at least the foreseeable future.

Carry on.

So I'm curious how relevant DMA's are today in a world dominated by cable and satellite. Increasingly sports are shown on cable stations not over the air. Do Dayton fans really stop at the Dayton DMA line or do they extend into Cincinatti also.

To take Big East candidate bias out of the discussion lets talk the Fresno DMA. It's relatively small like the Dayton DMA. It also stops an hour drive from Fresno in either direction whereas the Sacramento DMA extends much more broadly. Fresno has many fans in Modesto and Bakersfield and yet none of them are in the Fresno DMA.

In the case of Fresno, ESPN choose Fresno many times and got decent ratings. CBSSports chose San Jose in a huge DMA and got poor ratings. Basing your decision on DMA size resulted in a poor decision because it doesn't account for affinity. Fresno has some affinity across the valley which is 3 DMA's and has limited competition. San Jose has no affinity past the San Jose DMA and has significant competition for the viewers time.

[JPSchmack]

First, I don’t know why you feel any addition needs to be a “move the needle” basketball program. Those who move the needle do so because they have huge alumni bases (aka BCS football programs). Gonzaga doesn’t even “move the needle.” They had ONE game over 1 million viewers (The WCC final vs BYU on a Tuesday before everyone else played their tournaments, to see if at at-large was stolen by BYU drew 1.432 million). Their OT thriller vs Arizona drew 781,000. That’s “moving the needle” more than your current ratings, but move the Zags to FS1 and they’ll draw less. And a lot less when they’re playing at 10 or 11 pm ET.

The easiest path to more money for the league (the Big Ten signing an FS1 contract would help) is simply more NCAA bids & wins. And you don’t need to add Sweet 16 teams for that.

I understand why Xavier fans are anti-Dayton in expansion talks: Because they’re anti-Dayton period. I find it silly. A school that’s going to lose 3 of every 4 to Xavier as they have for 30 years, and will win a lot of OOC games as they have for 20 years, and has the ability to go deep into the NCAA Tournament, with 5 wins the last two years. And BE teams wouldn’t have to ever risk a First Four game vs UD, or even a match-up with UD. That seems desirable to me. Which brings me to my main point:

Conference play is a zero sum game. You’ve got 90 Big East wins and 90 Big East losses with 10 teams. Adding a program that is going to finish second behind Villanova is handing the other nine teams in the league 11-14 conference losses. It just bumps everyone down one. They slide into an NCAA bid, and with two more losses, your last NCAA team now has 15 losses and goes to the NIT. That might help the league as a whole, but as a fan, if it's your team getting bumped out, why do you want that?


And that’s why you should add Dayton. Dayton’s gonna finish 5th to 8th, bring a 10-2 OOC record into the league, Xavier will beat ‘em, and maybe that gets you a 7th or 8th team into the dance, provided your other addition is a smart one.

What do you want out of the 12th team? You want a team that’s going to win OOC games, LOSE Big East games, and deliver TV markets. Ideally in the East. And this is going to sound crazy to you, but just listen:

You should add Dayton & St. Bonaventure.

With UD/Bona, the Big East OOC win pct last year would be the same (actually down .002, but in the Big East, Bona ain’t scheduling Pitt). But when Dayton goes 8-10 and Bonaventure goes 3-15 at best, the puts Dayton and Seton Hall into the dance. Eight of 12 teams in the NCAA, and UD can’t beat Providence in the R64, so maybe they avoid an upset and it’s 3 more NCAA units.

Any option you could bring in - Saint Louis, Richmond, Davidson - are in bigger markets (not really, I’ll explain) but they don’t DELIVER those markets.
In Saint Louis, you have Missouri, Illinois, half the MVC, MLB, NFL, NHL. It’s a tiny school none cares about.
In Richmond, you have VCU, who is far bigger, UVA/VT/CAA getting coverage, etc. It’s a tiny school few care about.
In Davidson, you have the ACC and a ton of smaller schools, plus NBA and NFL. It’s a tiny school none cares about.

Bonaventure is in a tiny, tiny market. And 90% of the grads don’t live there. They live all over the region. From Rochester to Bona to Buffalo, there are 2.5 million people, the size of St. Louis.

In that area you have Bona, Canisius, Niagara, and Buffalo, the Bills and Sabres. NOTHING in Rochester: no Division I schools.

But the media in those cities that cover sports… went to St. Bonaventure! Buffalo has covered Bona since the 1960s when Buffalo’s best product went to Bona. They never stopped because Bona grads want to keep covering them.

Bona already plays 1 to 3 games in Buffalo/Rochester every year. If they schedule a Big East game in Rochester annually, every year there will be a column about how “Bona plays Georgetown, Nova, Seton Hall, St. John’s and Providence; Syracuse doesn’t and still won’t play Bona.”


You invest in Bona, and they won’t hurt the league, they’ll help OOC, go 3-15 in conference to enable ONE OF YOU GUYS to make the dance as the 7th and/or 8th place team. They will take the massive increase in media coverage (and the the money), improve their program and, over time, will turn that area into Big East territory, delivering TWO markets that equals the size of the No. 22 market.

[Bill Marsh]

I think 1 question- let's say for discussions sake the A10 picked up Wichita. That gets them to 15. Who would #16 be for them?

They don't need to go to 16. They can go to 15 just like the ACC.

[Bill Marsh]

what two programs would exist to kick start it at that point to such a degree that their inclusion is warranted at the margin?

Any additions have to be strategic, for the brand and accretive financially. There are no programs popping onto the radar from what's out there now that fits the bill.

Gonzaga and Dayton.

[Michael in Raleigh]

To follow up on the question of why Creighton got into the Big East, as opposed to someone like VCU, it's worth noting that Creighton's president is on the Marquette board of directors. It matters who you know with these things, just as it does with most things in life. (I'm not saying this was the only reason, just that it makes a big difference).

http://m.omaha.com/news/big-east-how-cr ... l?mode=jqm

[Butlerfan28]

what two programs would exist to kick start it at that point to such a degree that their inclusion is warranted at the margin?

Any additions have to be strategic, for the brand and accretive financially. There are no programs popping onto the radar from what's out there now that fits the bill.

Gonzaga and Dayton.

Wonder why those two Bill? How would you see them fitting in schedule wise? Remember you have other sports you have to play. I couldn't think of two other additions that would be more challenging logistically. Also not sure what markets or affinity you add as you are no less diverse.

So curious as to your logic.

[NJRedman]

The A-10 should drop Fordham and pick up Iona, WSU and Northern Iowa. A 16 team conference with real punching power.

[BEX]

Olean Welders in the BE? You can't be serious. Can't wait to bus up to the Reilly center in 3 feet of snow.

[JPSchmack]

Olean Welders in the BE? You can't be serious. Can't wait to bus up to the Reilly center in 3 feet of snow.

I am serious. And just gave you a plethora of facts as to how it makes the Big East better. Which ones did you struggle with?

You want to take Gonzaga, who's located in Washington's version of Olean and is 3000 miles away so you can grab a team that plays at 10 pm ET, will displace one of your NCAA teams, makes the 10 of you lose more, and (allegedly) increase TV ratings (when they drew under 800,000 on ESPN for their OT thriller against Arizona).

But you don't want a team that raises your current 7th place team to the NCAA bubble, gives you a realistic chance at 8 bids in a given year, and with the Big East brand can claim an area with 2.5 million people virtually uncontested... because of a bus ride? A bus ride you actually don't have to take. If your team is bussing three hours to Bonaventure, your director of ops should be fired. Charter to Bradford (if you're not playing the Bonnies in Rochester/Buffalo)