Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[stever20]

I don't understand this whole move the needle conversation. I hate to say this but look at numbers. No one is watching the Big East on FS1. Its only been 2 years but if the BE stays at 10 and ratings don't improve is Fox going to she'll out that money in 10 years. Absolutely not. The point people are making about Dayton is people will watch. That will help at least a little. Xavier fans don't want to hear that but it's fact. Please stop talking Gonzaga and Uconn. If the BE expands those 2 schools are not options. Won't happen.

How many Dayton games were on ESPN? 8
How many Cincy games were on ESPN? 17
How many Xavier games were on ESPN? 5
How many Ohio St games were on ESPN? 14

The City of Dayton's tv ratings were driven a lot by all the local teams being on- not just Dayton- who had less than 20% of the games televised on ESPN of those 4- and that doesn't even take into account Kentucky fans. To say that Dayton should get into the Big East because of the Dayton City tv ratings- that's a joke.

[DeltaV]

Are there any 'move the needle' programs out there? Would even Gonzaga really get that many casual viewers, let alone Dayton or VCU? Hell, would even Wake Forest or Vanderbilt (in some strange P5->16x4 implosion scenario) really get anyone outside of their alumni excited?

Yes, bringing Dayton into the conference is going to get a lot of viewership from that area...but its still not going to be the numbers that would rival ESPN. Bob in Accounting isn't going to be talking about the Gonzaga Dayton game he randomly decided to flip on.

I don't like to say it, but I think the best thing that would raise our viewership would be FS1 getting a big chunk of BIG games. Nova Providence isn't going to get the casual viewers that Indiana Ohio State would...but if the Big East game has a great finish that runs a few minutes into the beginning of the Big 10 game, that viewer may be willing to tune in next time Providence plays, instead of going with the FSU Clemson game on ESPN that everyone knows will be a woofer.

[stever20]

I don't understand this whole move the needle conversation. I hate to say this but look at numbers. No one is watching the Big East on FS1. Its only been 2 years but if the BE stays at 10 and ratings don't improve is Fox going to she'll out that money in 10 years. Absolutely not. The point people are making about Dayton is people will watch. That will help at least a little. Xavier fans don't want to hear that but it's fact. Please stop talking Gonzaga and Uconn. If the BE expands those 2 schools are not options. Won't happen.

People aren't watching FS1 in general. It's not like it's just the Big East is getting bad ratings.

They are- but they are watching FS1 for things like the UFC and NASCAR. Mainstream sports like MLB and College sports on the other hand aren't.

I think what the issue is- your UFC/NASCAR fans are a LOT more hardcore- and will find it no matter where it is. Your more casual sports fans aren't like that though- it's pretty obvious with what we've seen so far.

[Xudash]

Xudash does that mean you don't want Dayton in? Lol

At any rate, HoosierPal provided a single metric (i.e. the Nielsen rating) without considering market size, potential or location. My point stands whether it involves UD or XYZ U.

Take UD out of the conversation and my overall point still stands: it's about "move the needle" programs, TV markets and program position and sustainability for generating NCAA Tournament Units. That mix will determine the list of expansion candidates, IF the Big East ever decides it's worthwhile to expand.

Please show your data that refutes ESPN's. Thank you.

They obviously don't move your needle, but people in Dayton watch college basketball. That might move Fox Sports needle, which would trump your needle.

And I assume that IF Dayton played Xavier, no one in Cincy would watch giving it horrible ratings, as it wouldn't be a needle mover.

I'm not refuting ESPN's data.

Relatively speaking, UD is a hotbed for college basketball viewership.

Now I want you to tell me what you think that 1.9 number translates to in Dayton, OH in terms of actual estimated viewers from the meter. Or do you just want to continue to roll with your singular data point?

Please let me know if you decide to walk that 1.9 into Fox's offices as the defining argument for UD's inclusion. I want to witness their reaction.

[HoosierPal]

At any rate, HoosierPal provided a single metric (i.e. the Nielsen rating) without considering market size, potential or location. My point stands whether it involves UD or XYZ U.

Take UD out of the conversation and my overall point still stands: it's about "move the needle" programs, TV markets and program position and sustainability for generating NCAA Tournament Units. That mix will determine the list of expansion candidates, IF the Big East ever decides it's worthwhile to expand.

Please show your data that refutes ESPN's. Thank you.

They obviously don't move your needle, but people in Dayton watch college basketball. That might move Fox Sports needle, which would trump your needle.

And I assume that IF Dayton played Xavier, no one in Cincy would watch giving it horrible ratings, as it wouldn't be a needle mover.

I'm not refuting ESPN's data.

Please let me know if you decide to walk that 1.9 into Fox's offices as the defining argument for UD's inclusion. I want to witness their reaction.

See you Monday Morning in the Fox Sports main office.

[Butlerfan28]

ESPN Data says Dayton is your 'hot spot' candidate.

ESPN published their ratings by market. Dayton finished 7th. Sure those TV's were on The Ohio State U games, Dayton games, Cincy games, etc,. but people in Dayton are watching basketball on TV. That is what Fox Sports 1 should want, VIEWERS. Raleigh-Durham is Tobacco Road, KC is KU and Mizzou, Charlotte heavily ACC (a twist of Davidson perhaps?) and Memphis is Memphis. Sure it's ESPN data, but show me other data that says Dayton is not a TV basketball hot spot.

Louisville’s 13th Year as Top Market Sets Record for Highest Season Average of Any Market

ESPN telecasts in Louisville averaged a metered market-leading 5.9 rating, its 13th straight year at the top and the largest regular-season average for the sport on ESPN in any market on record. Greensboro, with a 3.0 average rating, ended the season with the second highest rating for the fourth consecutive year. Raleigh-Durham (2.7) and Kansas City (2.4) – which were tied for second last season — were the third and fourth top markets, respectively this year. The remaining top 10: Columbus (2.1), Cincinnati (1.9), Dayton (1.9), Indianapolis (1.8), Charlotte (1.8) and Memphis (1.8).

You do understand that the Dayton TMA is ranked 64th in the nation, right? Granted, Omaha comes in at #74, but Omaha isn't adjacent to the Cincinnati TMA, and obviously doesn't have a conference mate right next door (forget SJU and SHU in this regard, given the NY/NJ market). It's just not about a numerical Nielsen rating, it's about market size and location.

Actually, given that the Big East is holding at ten for a while and possibly for a very long time, and knowing that the primary drivers are television and programs that can drive NCAA Units on a sustainable basis, it has to be about "needle moving" and the right TMA mix and proven, sustainable programs.

Today, that only translates to UCONN and Gonzaga; perhaps VCU had Shaka stayed. Nothing else out there moves the needle or makes sense at this point.

Sure but UConn isn't likely to give up football and Gonzaga is in a smaller DMA than Dayton and isn't moving their campus east. If you really wanted Gonzaga you would need to fill in the west. Butler would hate it but you could go 14 by adding Dayton/VCU, Wichita State, BYU and Gonzaga. Salt lake to Spokane would be a possible weekend trip.

West would be: Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, Wichita State, BYU, Gonzaga.
East would be: Xavier, and the rest

Basketball would be strong.
Conference would be diverse

Volleyball in the west would be brutally tough.

[Butlerfan28]

Xudash does that mean you don't want Dayton in? Lol

At any rate, HoosierPal provided a single metric (i.e. the Nielsen rating) without considering market size, potential or location. My point stands whether it involves UD or XYZ U.

Take UD out of the conversation and my overall point still stands: it's about "move the needle" programs, TV markets and program position and sustainability for generating NCAA Tournament Units. That mix will determine the list of expansion candidates, IF the Big East ever decides it's worthwhile to expand.

Please show your data that refutes ESPN's. Thank you.

They obviously don't move your needle, but people in Dayton watch college basketball. That might move Fox Sports needle, which would trump your needle.

And I assume that IF Dayton played Xavier, no one in Cincy would watch giving it horrible ratings, as it wouldn't be a needle mover.

Really though you need to consider the adds in terms of how does it change the composition of the conference and who might view it. What are the story lines. UConn if available would add the best story lines but don't think they are dropping football. VCU Georgetown provides an interesting storyline if they can stay good. Wichita State does also versus Creighton I believe.

[Xudash]

Are there any 'move the needle' programs out there? Would even Gonzaga really get that many casual viewers, let alone Dayton or VCU? Hell, would even Wake Forest or Vanderbilt (in some strange P5->16x4 implosion scenario) really get anyone outside of their alumni excited?

Yes, bringing Dayton into the conference is going to get a lot of viewership from that area...but its still not going to be the numbers that would rival ESPN. Bob in Accounting isn't going to be talking about the Gonzaga Dayton game he randomly decided to flip on.

I don't like to say it, but I think the best thing that would raise our viewership would be FS1 getting a big chunk of BIG games. Nova Providence isn't going to get the casual viewers that Indiana Ohio State would...but if the Big East game has a great finish that runs a few minutes into the beginning of the Big 10 game, that viewer may be willing to tune in next time Providence plays, instead of going with the FSU Clemson game on ESPN that everyone knows will be a woofer.

This.

I mentioned "move the needle" programs as a criterion, that doesn't mean I have any obvious ones to offer at this point. I mentioned UCONN and Gonzaga as a possible two who may be the most obvious at this point; they seem to be kicked around here the most. The idea here involves the scenario where the BE waits to see what happens with football, notwithstanding your valid point/example of Wake and Vandy.

Perhaps Val and Delaney put together the BE/B1G deal with your thought in mind, especially given the nexus involved between the conferences and Fox.

The bottom line is that the BE is not likely to expand for the foreseeable future.

[GoldenWarrior11]

The Big East can't control the ratings of FS1. It is doing everything it needs to be doing in order for the product to grow. It has entertaining games, exciting personalities (both on air and on the sidelines) and big markets (New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, D.C., Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati and Omaha). Most importantly, it has produced 10 teams in the tournament over the past two seasons.

While ratings would certainly be a point of emphasis for any expansion candidate(s), attendance of that school would be equally, if not more, important. Just like the fact that VCU has had a recent history of sustained success in basketball, it is also a fact that Dayton consistently sells out its games (over 200,000 people at UD games this year), has a big arena (13k) and travels extremely well. We need to make sure we keep selling the seats at MSG for the tournament. Dayton, like Creighton did last year, would be a big help in accomplishing that.

If the Big East is interested in VCU (and I would think there would at least be some internal discussion regarding their candidacy), they should wait a year or two and see how their program responds to losing Smart. In all likelihood, they continue the sustained success and competitiveness. However, they could still take major steps back if they hire the wrong coach.

[stever20]

Are there any 'move the needle' programs out there? Would even Gonzaga really get that many casual viewers, let alone Dayton or VCU? Hell, would even Wake Forest or Vanderbilt (in some strange P5->16x4 implosion scenario) really get anyone outside of their alumni excited?

Yes, bringing Dayton into the conference is going to get a lot of viewership from that area...but its still not going to be the numbers that would rival ESPN. Bob in Accounting isn't going to be talking about the Gonzaga Dayton game he randomly decided to flip on.

I don't like to say it, but I think the best thing that would raise our viewership would be FS1 getting a big chunk of BIG games. Nova Providence isn't going to get the casual viewers that Indiana Ohio State would...but if the Big East game has a great finish that runs a few minutes into the beginning of the Big 10 game, that viewer may be willing to tune in next time Providence plays, instead of going with the FSU Clemson game on ESPN that everyone knows will be a woofer.

This.

I mentioned "move the needle" programs as a criterion, that doesn't mean I have any obvious ones to offer at this point. I mentioned UCONN and Gonzaga as a possible two who may be the most obvious at this point; they seem to be kicked around here the most. The idea here involves the scenario where the BE waits to see what happens with football, notwithstanding your valid point/example of Wake and Vandy.

Perhaps Val and Delaney put together the BE/B1G deal with your thought in mind, especially given the nexus involved between the conferences and Fox.

The bottom line is that the BE is not likely to expand for the foreseeable future.

Folks here way overestimate the Big Ten's relationship with Fox. Big Ten isn't going to do what is best for Fox. They aren't going to do what is best for the Big East. They're going to do what is best for the Big Ten. Period.