Back off the ledge

[Bill Marsh]

Please read this: Great explanation as to why we shouldn't overreact to yesterday.

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2015/03/day-6-open-thread-picking-lines.html

Thanks. Good read.

[admin]

Please read this: Great explanation as to why we shouldn't overreact to yesterday.

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2015/03/day-6-open-thread-picking-lines.html

Thanks. Good read.

Is NC State better than Villanova? No. Not even close. Villanova just happened to have a nightmare game at a terrible time (though despite their second worst shooting performance of the season they still had a shot to win in the final 30 seconds). Villanova outscored the Big East by 0.21 PPP while NC State outscored the ACC by 0.04 PPP. You can argue that the ACC was better than the Big East, but you can argue just as well that the Big East was stronger than the ACC. And hell, we'd have had to rewrite that whole narrative if Butler had knocked off the ACC tourney champ about an hour later. And did we forget that the team which finished 6th in the 10 team Big East league is still alive in the Sweet 16? All of those latter points would have come up if the media wanted to promote a "Big East > ACC narrative". But the media was driving the ACC bandwagon all season long, so they're going to find the pieces to fit into that.

Sums it up well.

[MackNova]

Look, I think most of us realize the Big East is a solid league. But if we're going to produce 1 Sweet 16 team in 2 years, that's not helping, especially when 99% of the country never watches us play. They just assume the Big East is dead. Then when we finally get on a national stage, we blow it.

I get that only Nova and GTown were projected to make it according to the seeds. But when you have 5 teams seeded 6th or higher, you're supposed to get more than 1 team into the S16.

Really, the issue is Nova. If Nova wins yesterday, none of this matters. But they didn't, so the perception that Nova is overrated and that the Big East sucks will remain for another year. Maybe Xavier makes the Final Four, and I hope they do, but I doubt it.

[gogopuff]

In the last 2 NCAA Tournaments the Big East is 0-6 when playing games in which they are +/- 3 seeds of their opponents(8v9, 7v10, 4v5, etc).

The other 3 losses are as a +5 seed (PC v Dayton), a +5 seed, and a +8 seed (both Nova).

[micgoG'town]

Of course San Diago St. has the flu going into the Duke game.

[billyjack]

I could write a lot about this, but I'm tied up most of the day.

But here's a quick thought:
"Frankie the Barber from Pawtucket" and I predicted last October that the Big East would get 6 NCAA bids, and 3 teams in the Sweet-16. Upon hearing that, several posters asked what kind of weed i was smoking, cuz they wanted to get some for themselves. Well, we got 6 bids, 1 Sweet-16, with 3 other games being lost in OT, on a one possession game, an in a game that was tied with 4 minutes left.

Please explain how in October, a 6-bid 3-teams-in-Sweet-16 scenario could only be envisioned under serious pot smoking, but a 6-bid 1-team-in-Sweet-16 is cause for roof ledge climbing...? Rhetorical, don't answer. This is about trends, movement, RPI, progress, recruiting, attendance all improving year to year, brick by brick.

Yesterday was disappointing because they implications of 3 Sweet-16 teams would have blown away the talking heads. We are still ahead of schedule.

P.S. Virginia lost today. Second straight year couldn't get past Sweet-16. Va fans would be nuts to blow up Bennett.

[stever20]

what schedule? Your schedule? We were told by YOUR coach that this isn't the new big east this is the Big East. So your schedule thing is just an excuse. The fact is we had 2 sweet 16 seeds, and Xavier who caught a break in getting Georgia State instead of Iowa St. Yesterday is absolutely a disappointment and if it's not a disappointment to you, than you are one of these folks who just believes in participation ribbons. There's no way if you are competitive to spin yesterday as anything but a disappointment.

And this crap that last year we got 4 teams in with horrible seeds. Yes Xavier and PC had bad seeds. Xavier was in a PIG and a team from a PIG has won a game in the rd of 32 every year. And Nova was still a 2 seed. Creighton was a 3 seed. The fact is the top teams in our conference have choked in the tourney. Period.

[Michael in Raleigh]

If the Big East is mid major, let's see if I can make the other power conferences look mid major, too.

- The Big Ten has won but one national championship in 26 years, and none in 15 years. It includes a team that has never once been to the NCAA tournament, despite all of its teams having D1 status since the start of the NCAA championship tournament in the '30's.

- The SEC is analagous to the AAC or West Coast Conference, with Kentucky and Florida alternating the roles of UConn or Gonzaga. No other SEC team has won the national title, or even been to the title game, since 1994. The rest of the league is wildly inconsistent

- The Pac-12 has not won a national championship in 18 years and has won just two since UCLA's string of titles under Wooden ended in the mid-70's. It hasn't even had a Final Four team since 2008.

- The Big 12 has won one national title in its 19 year existence. Current members had not won other titles in their previous conference homes since '88.

- No team has made the Final Four under the ACC banner in five years. The only team to win a national title besides UNC and Duke under the ACC banner since 1983 is Maryland, which is no longer in the league. Now, we could credit the ACC for Final Fours and a national title in the past five years thanks to Louisville, but only if we apply that logic by crediting the Big East with Butler's razor-thin miss at the 2010 title and with their 2011 title appearance. On the other hand, if we don't allow Big East credit for Butler, then the Big East gets credit for Syracuse and Louisville.

All those leagues look pretty meek when looked at in such light, don't they? That's what happens when people use lazy, negative narratives.

The truth is that there is no dominant conference in college basketball. Last year the ACC had just one Sweet 16 team. This year there will be at least three. The Big 12 gets tons of bids each year but doesn't get to the Final Four much, besides KU, and almost never wins titles. The Pac-12 hasn't been to the FF since 2008 yet is still a good league. The SEC is so incredibly top-heavy it should be embarrassing. The Big Ten can't pull through in the tournament.

Honestly, what's so different about the Big East? Like the Pac-12, there has been a drought of Final Four appearances (not counting Butler's appearances), but like the Big 12, the league is very deep with a relatively small number of teams. Villanova dominated this year and just shot terribly last night. Simple as that. Butler lost an overtime game to the ACC tournament champions in an absolute nailbiter. Providence lost a toss-up game. Georgetown did, too. St. John's lost, but without their best player in the game. And Xavier is in the Sweet 16. That kind of thing happens to all good leagues.

[XUFan09]

The Big East was a deep league full of solid teams and one elite team. The solid teams went 3-2 in the first round and 1-2 in the second round, which isn't that bad. Ideally, you would want at least one more win total from this group, whether it's the Round of 64 or the Round of 32, but they didn't finish far off the mark. What really hurts is that their one elite team was upset in the Round of 32. It happens to a 1 seed almost every year, but it just sucks that this specific conference doesn't have a second or third elite team to carry the banner when that one team went down. If Villanova had won, no one would be saying anything right now. If Georgetown or Butler had won, no one would have been saying much. It was just bad luck for the conference to finish yesterday on that note after going 4-2 in the Round of 64. The rest of the conference will be back next year with some with some great talent coming in and some younger players maturing, and in the meantime we can hope for a miracle from Xavier on Thursday.

[robinreed]

I wasn't surprised by the Friday night losses, but yesterday was very discouraging - especially Villanova and Butler. (I actually thought that Georgetown was overseeded and wasn't surprised by their loss.) right. Now I'm brokenhearted and it's really hard to watch any basketball. Xavier is a pleasant surprise, which would have been a nice addition to a Villanova run, but by itself it doesn't mean much to anyone but Xavier fans. Does anyone really expect them to beat Arizona? Nonetheless, I'm happy for them.

I'm beginning to think that the conference may have been overrated due to the OOC success early in the season. Without one-and-done type talent, the league's best teams were largely built around upperclassmen, veterans of the college basketball wars. That's an advantage in November and December when other teams are still bringing their elite young talent along an developing their team chemistry. But by March, teams with elite but younger talent now have a full 30-game season under their belts. The edge we had on paper was apparently much thinner at this time of year than it appeared.

Regretfully I must agree with you Bill. Let's not get too full of ourselves, this is a big comedown and I say this as an XU grad and fan. I hope for a win against zona but it will take prayer, divine intervention and luck. This on top of a really bad TV performance in our BE tourney are bad signs for the future. However we still are better than the "G5" conferences as well as the A10, Horizon etc. in money and basketball. Perhaps this should be a sign to people who believe Wichita, VCU and Gonzaga should not be in our league. Please consider expansion !!!!