ESPN: X, Butler and Providence just Mediocre and Generic

[chicagojayfan]

So according to ESPN's Giant Killer special you guys aren't very good at anything and will be upset in the first round. Oh and GTown is gonna lose AGAIN in the first round. I know some wish we stayed with them, but I have the feeling that if we did, this wouldn't be much different.

F ESPN and F their talking heads who are gonna look like fools when we show them how good this league really is. Though they will act like they weren't wrong at all.

I despise ESPN. They are so blatant in the way they support their own investments that it's not even funny anymore. Add in the fact that the quality of their sports analysis has gone down precipitously and I really only watch them when forced to because a game I want to see is only available there.

[stever20]

This is pretty comical.

let's look at the list of the Big East teams
Xavier 39% chance to lose vs Ole MIss
Providence 37% chance to lose to Boise or 27% vs Dayton
Georgetown 15% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 1.7% chance to lose vs Lafayette
Butler 38% chance to lose to Texas

don't have the St John's/SDSU game

now let's go to Ken Pom-
Xavier 42% chance to lose to Ole Miss
Providence game not on there yet
Georgetown 16% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 3% chance to lose to Lafayette
Butler 52% chance to lose to Texas

So ALL 4 games Ken Pom has a better chance for us to lose than ESPN does. Man, that Ken Pom is so biased against the Big East.

[billyjack]

This is pretty comical.

let's look at the list of the Big East teams
Xavier 39% chance to lose vs Ole MIss
Providence 37% chance to lose to Boise or 27% vs Dayton
Georgetown 15% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 1.7% chance to lose vs Lafayette
Butler 38% chance to lose to Texas

don't have the St John's/SDSU game

now let's go to Ken Pom-
Xavier 42% chance to lose to Ole Miss
Providence game not on there yet
Georgetown 16% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 3% chance to lose to Lafayette
Butler 52% chance to lose to Texas

So ALL 4 games Ken Pom has a better chance for us to lose than ESPN does. Man, that Ken Pom is so biased against the Big East.

"Noun, verb, cherrypick."
ESPN commentators give Georgetown an 85% chance of losing to Eastern Washington.

[XUFan09]

Guys on Fox Sports actually are even picking Eastern Washington for an upset bid, with the logic being that Georgetown was overseeded (admittedly, a 4 seed was a bit unexpected) and recent history has involved early exits. It's not a crazy notion, even if I think Eastern Washington is going to lose by double digits. What's common between all these networks is the impulse to emphasize their upset picks, because they look good if they're right but people forget if they're wrong. Take the 5-12 matchups; everyone is talking about Buffalo over WVU, which has to piss off fans.

For 4-13 matchups, Valpo over Maryland is actually my favorite upset pick. Maryland is rated much lower on Kenpom than normal 4 seeds (33rd) and Valpo is easily the best 13 seed at 65th. Bryce Drew just needs one of his players to channel their inner-him!

[stever20]

Guys on Fox Sports actually are even picking Eastern Washington for an upset bid, with the logic being that Georgetown was overseeded (admittedly, a 4 seed was a bit unexpected) and recent history has involved early exits. It's not a crazy notion, even if I think Eastern Washington is going to lose by double digits. What's common between all these networks is the impulse to emphasize their upset picks, because they look good if they're right but people forget if they're wrong. Take the 5-12 matchups; everyone is talking about Buffalo over WVU, which has to piss off fans.

For 4-13 matchups, Valpo over Maryland is actually my favorite upset pick. Maryland is rated much lower on Kenpom than normal 4 seeds (33rd) and Valpo is easily the best 13 seed at 65th. Bryce Drew just needs one of his players to channel their inner-him!

The 5-12's just are so uncanny because every year there's at least 1 of them. In the last 20 years(so 80 games) the 5's are only 47-33 (.588) in those games(after going 29-11(.725) the first 10 years of the 64 team tournament. 6 seeds last 20 years have won 66% of their games- 53-27(.663)(after going 26-14 (.650) first 10 years). So the 6/11 has stayed stable, while the 5/12 pct has gone way down).

[stever20]

was looking at the 68 team history, last 4 years....
1 vs 16 obviously 16-0 and 8-0 vs pig
2 vs 15 13-3
3 vs 14 14-2- 1-0 vs pig
4 vs 13 13-3 0-1 vs pig
5 vs 12 7-9 2-1 vs pig
6 vs 11 8-8 0-3 vs pig
7 vs 10 11-5
8 vs 9 11-5

a few really amazing things. The 5 record vs 12 is unreal last 4 years. And if you take the pig out of it only 5-8 against 12's(which are normally those smaller conference champions).

6 vs 11 is something as well. 0-3 for 6 playing 11's who come out of PIG. That's the place where Xavier and PC are going to be. Like was said- it's a big advantage getting those 1st game jitters out. Kind of bodes well for Butler though- 6 vs 11 8-5 when not playing a PIG team.

and lastly, who knew that the 7 and 8's were so good recently vs 9's and 10's. Last year both were 3-1.

[ChestRockwell85]

I would not be surprised at all to see Providence make the elite eight/final four. They are possibly the most talented team in our conference and they have a chip on their shoulder.

I have Providence going to the Elite 8 and I firmly believe they will get there.

[DudeAnon]

This is pretty comical.

let's look at the list of the Big East teams
Xavier 39% chance to lose vs Ole MIss
Providence 37% chance to lose to Boise or 27% vs Dayton
Georgetown 15% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 1.7% chance to lose vs Lafayette
Butler 38% chance to lose to Texas

don't have the St John's/SDSU game

now let's go to Ken Pom-
Xavier 42% chance to lose to Ole Miss
Providence game not on there yet
Georgetown 16% chance to lose to E Washington
Nova 3% chance to lose to Lafayette
Butler 52% chance to lose to Texas

So ALL 4 games Ken Pom has a better chance for us to lose than ESPN does. Man, that Ken Pom is so biased against the Big East.

Honest question stever, do you ever get sick of thriving on negativity? Everyone plays the devils advocate from time to time, you long for it.

[Bill Marsh]

I found this fan comment typical:

politicallyincorrect - Mar 16, 2015 at 10:02 AM

IMO…

Villanova is a horrendously unjust choice for 1 seed……
bad league, bad tourney history in recent years, best win is VCU………… this is a midmajor w/o any major wins, and unlike Gonzaga they have shown to not be competitive with top teams in the actual tourney

If in the ACC Villanova would battle NCState for 6th place….. and I would favor NCState….. and hey, this may well be proved in the rd of 32

at least they did put the rightful 1 seed Virginia in this bracket but this is an asinine choice for 1 seed

the entire BE is a national charity case and joke………….. how is GTown seeded.. or Xavier? GTown, in particular is a complete disgrace……….

this crap needs to stop

Let's play our game and win a few to get them to STFU.

Thought it might be interesting to post the actual facts in response to this idiot:

Top 50 Wins:

NC STATE

5 - Duke
11 - @North Carolina
21 - @Louisville
44 - Boise State

That's it.

VILLANOVA

14 - (N) VCU
23 - @Providence
23 - (N) Providence
23 - Providence
25 - Georgetown
30 - @Xavier
30 - (N) Xavier
30 - Xavier
31 - @Butler
31 - Butler
34 - Temple
36 - @St. John's
36 - St. John's

As for his claim that Villanova would struggling for 6th place against NC State (10-8) in the ACC, in their only ACC matchup, Villanova beat Syracuse (9-9), who finished just a game behind NC State.

[chicagojayfan]

They're putting Texas as the favorite because the advanced metrics love them because they've played a brutal schedule. However, they have been atrocious versus top 50 teams and have a coach that Friar fans can attest is not adept at maximizing on court talent.

Butler will struggle with their size, but they've been tall and long teams already like UNC and Providence. Simply put, Butler is just tougher and if you don't think they haven't seen they are listed as underdogs and are using that for motivation, I've got a bridge for sale.

As for PC and Xavier, they'll let their game do the talking. Both are flat out superior teams to their play in opponents and I expect them to prove that. Xavier haa great balance and depth while PC has IMO the best player in their region.

Agree with this analysis. I'd add in that I think the metrics/RPI have overrated the B12 this year. We'll see for sure in the tourney, but I don't think they are the powerhouse they are supposed to be.

Butler will be a tough matchup for a lot of teams. Tough and disciplined D, a guy who can get to the paint and score and a couple of tremendous outside shooters. Not many teams play that way these days and teams will struggle to figure them out.

I'll indulge with patting myself on the back here. It's a rare enough occurrence that I need to do it sometimes

B-12 O-3 and Butler wins over Texas in an ugly game where first one to 50 wins. With Jones healthy they win this one going away