Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

maybe to you- but in the eyes of the bracketologists, you are dead wrong. You must not read any bracketology other than bracket matrix which doesn't post folks first 4 out.

I don't read bracket matrix. I glance at the Lunardi and Jerry Palm each day, but I take them with a grain of salt. You give them far too much credit. They don't have a vote. They will have nothing to do with making the decision of who will get into the tournament.

So, I'm not wrong - dead or otherwise. Because for me to be wrong, the bracketologists would have to be the standard. They're not. The committee is. The bracketologists have an opinion. I have an opinion. You have an opinion. Sometimes they're different and different is all they are. Not right or wrong, we'll only know who's right on Sunday.

What you're ignoring in all of this is that Tulsa's profile is still in flux. When you see that a team like Ole Miss has lost, you now know their final RPI, but you don't know what Tulsa's will be. If they play to form, they will beat Houston tomorrow and will then lose to Cincinnati on Saturday. That combination will hurt their RPI, so Ole Miss will still look better than they do. As will Stanford, Richmond, etc.

BTW, Lunardi still has Tulsa out. So, he seems to agree with me.

[stever20]

maybe to you- but in the eyes of the bracketologists, you are dead wrong. You must not read any bracketology other than bracket matrix which doesn't post folks first 4 out.

I don't read bracket matrix. I glance at the Lunardi and Jerry Palm each day, but I take them with a grain of salt. You give them far too much credit. They don't have a vote. They will have nothing to do with making the decision of who will get into the tournament.

So, I'm not wrong - dead or otherwise. Because for me to be wrong, the bracketologists would have to be the standard. They're not. The committee is. The bracketologists have an opinion. I have an opinion. You have an opinion. Sometimes they're different and different is all they are. Not right or wrong, we'll only know who's right on Sunday.

What you're ignoring in all of this is that Tulsa's profile is still in flux. When you see that a team like Ole Miss has lost, you now know their final RPI, but you don't know what Tulsa's will be. If they play to form, they will beat Houston tomorrow and will then lose to Cincinnati on Saturday. That combination will hurt their RPI, so Ole Miss will still look better than they do. As will Stanford, Richmond, etc.

BTW, Lunardi still has Tulsa out. So, he seems to agree with me.

The bracketologists are far better than you want to give them credit. Last year they got 35/36 teams correct. For one the committee has gotten MUCH more consistent than they used to be so they're easier to predict.

Also Stanford and Richmond by most folks accounts are below Tulsa right now.

Also- It's very possible Tulsa doesn't see Cincy on Saturday. UConn at home could easily knock off Cincy. Then a win for Tulsa over UConn would be a 1.4 win as it'd be considered a road game in the RPI. Considering Tulsa's RPI right now is up to 44 right now, they have a real shot.

[Bill Marsh]

maybe to you- but in the eyes of the bracketologists, you are dead wrong. You must not read any bracketology other than bracket matrix which doesn't post folks first 4 out.

I don't read bracket matrix. I glance at the Lunardi and Jerry Palm each day, but I take them with a grain of salt. You give them far too much credit. They don't have a vote. They will have nothing to do with making the decision of who will get into the tournament.

So, I'm not wrong - dead or otherwise. Because for me to be wrong, the bracketologists would have to be the standard. They're not. The committee is. The bracketologists have an opinion. I have an opinion. You have an opinion. Sometimes they're different and different is all they are. Not right or wrong, we'll only know who's right on Sunday.

What you're ignoring in all of this is that Tulsa's profile is still in flux. When you see that a team like Ole Miss has lost, you now know their final RPI, but you don't know what Tulsa's will be. If they play to form, they will beat Houston tomorrow and will then lose to Cincinnati on Saturday. That combination will hurt their RPI, so Ole Miss will still look better than they do. As will Stanford, Richmond, etc.

BTW, Lunardi still has Tulsa out. So, he seems to agree with me.

The bracketologists are far better than you want to give them credit. Last year they got 35/36 teams correct. For one the committee has gotten MUCH more consistent than they used to be so they're easier to predict.

Also Stanford and Richmond by most folks accounts are below Tulsa right now.

Also- It's very possible Tulsa doesn't see Cincy on Saturday. UConn at home could easily knock off Cincy. Then a win for Tulsa over UConn would be a 1.4 win as it'd be considered a road game in the RPI. Considering Tulsa's RPI right now is up to 44 right now, they have a real shot.

Claiming that getting 35/36 teams correct is a complete joke. You and I can pick 32 of those 36 right now. There are only a handful about which there are any doubt. Missing on one means a 25% error rate on the last 4 in. That's not very good.

[stever20]

Year before the Bracket Matrix was 100%. 62 teams seeded +/- 1 or completely right. Last year it was 63 teams seeded +/- 1 or completely right. You can continue to downplay the bracketologists but the fact is they are very accurate. The guy from Syracuse had all teams correct and had 67 within 1 seed..

Also the committee has gotten much more consistent. Not sure if they put things in after the 2011 season- but last 3 years the Matrix has missed 2 teams. 2011 the matrix missed 3 teams.

[shupirate98]

Claiming that getting 35/36 teams correct is a complete joke. You and I can pick 32 of those 36 right now. There are only a handful about which there are any doubt. Missing on one means a 25% error rate on the last 4 in. That's not very good.

I projected that Villanova would make the field last season. Somebody congratulate me!

[Bill Marsh]

Claiming that getting 35/36 teams correct is a complete joke. You and I can pick 32 of those 36 right now. There are only a handful about which there are any doubt. Missing on one means a 25% error rate on the last 4 in. That's not very good.

I projected that Villanova would make the field last season. Somebody congratulate me!

If someone really wanted to measure the accuracy of these guys, they'd rate them based on how correctly they predicted the line that each team would appear on. But they'll never do that because it will just show how many misses they actually have.

[stever20]

Claiming that getting 35/36 teams correct is a complete joke. You and I can pick 32 of those 36 right now. There are only a handful about which there are any doubt. Missing on one means a 25% error rate on the last 4 in. That's not very good.

I projected that Villanova would make the field last season. Somebody congratulate me!

If someone really wanted to measure the accuracy of these guys, they'd rate them based on how correctly they predicted the line that each team would appear on. But they'll never do that because it will just show how many misses they actually have.

They do. Last year 36 were seeded correctly. 63 were within 1 seed.

looking at the 5 that they missed....
Saint Louis- Matrix had them at a 7 committee as a 5.
UConn- Matrix had them at a 5 committee as a 7(oops)
Kentucky- Matrix had them at a 6 committee as a 8(oops)
BYU- Matrix had them at a 12 committee as a 10
And of course NC State

Pretty much everyone thought the committee completely screwed up with regards to Kentucky to stick it to Wichita St. And UConn won the title.

[HoosierPal]

I'm not sure what the big deal is here. Facts are facts. Tulsa is still in the conversation. Two wins and they just might get in. A win and a loss, they might not. This will all play out in the next two days. But today, Tulsa is still on the board. If Houston beats them, they are done.

[stever20]

I'm not sure what the big deal is here. Facts are facts. Tulsa is still in the conversation. Two wins and they just might get in. A win and a loss, they might not. This will all play out in the next two days. But today, Tulsa is still on the board. If Houston beats them, they are done.

Totally agree with you. The point is that Tulsa absolutely doesn't need to win the tourney to make the tourney. Bill might hate that fact but that is absolutely the fact.

I kind of hope they do win the AAC tourney and we see exactly what seed they get to see which opinion is correct...

One thing regarding Tulsa, wouldn't be shocked if we see the RPI revised to account for D2 losses in the RPI going forward.

[Bill Marsh]

1 thing that is good looking at the guy from Syracuse-

There's only 6 even possible bid thief leagues left...
Big Ten- Michigan/Penn St
MWC- Wyoming/Fresno St(Fresno playing right now)
Pac 12- Stanford
A10- La Salle/Richmond/St Bonaventure/GW/RI
SEC- Florida/Auburn/Tennessee/South Carolina
AAC-East Carolina/Memphis/UConn/Houston

part of this is the fact that so many leagues are done with their QF now and had a good bit of chalk quite frankly.

Are you talking about Patrick Stevens?

If you are, my ears perk up. Because he's not just one of the usual suspects; he's the guy who actually gets his brackets right more often than anyone else year in and year out. He can be found at http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens/ for anyone who's interested.

Here's what he has to say about Tulsa, going into today's game with Houston

"After so many teams fell apart Thursday, suddenly Tulsa looks a bit better by comparison. Not so good that it can be absolved of a loss to Southeastern Oklahoma State, but it could create consternation with an extended stay at the American tournament. Beating Houston (13-18), though, won't improve the Golden Hurricanes' resume."

Pretty much the same thing as I've been saying about them.