Bubble Watch

[HoosierPal]

Temple is just 8-9 vs the rpi top 200. That's just 8 top 200 wins. Seems tenuous to me.

look at BYU though-
4 top 100 wins, 3 sub 100 losses. 41 RPI
Temple-
6 top 100 wins, 1 sub 100 loss. 32 RPI

BYU with win over Portland/loss to Gonzaga doesn't add anything
Temple with win over Memphis/loss to SMU adds a 7th top 100 win

Profiles like BYU get left out a whole lot more often than Temple's.

As you remember, SMU was (to me) unfairly left out of last year's tourney with a RPI of 33 and a 27-6 record.

[stever20]

Temple is just 8-9 vs the rpi top 200. That's just 8 top 200 wins. Seems tenuous to me.

look at BYU though-
4 top 100 wins, 3 sub 100 losses. 41 RPI
Temple-
6 top 100 wins, 1 sub 100 loss. 32 RPI

BYU with win over Portland/loss to Gonzaga doesn't add anything
Temple with win over Memphis/loss to SMU adds a 7th top 100 win

Profiles like BYU get left out a whole lot more often than Temple's.

As you remember, SMU was (to me) unfairly left out of last year's tourney with a RPI of 33 and a 27-6 record.

SMU had a horrible OOC SOS and had like 3 sub 100 losses. Very different than Temple. And they had a 53 RPI not 33.

Just looking at Lunardi's latest bracket, the team that I think could be the shock miss is more and more VCU. He's got them down to a 10 now. They lose 1st round, they could easily be out.

[Bill Marsh]

I think the key is SOS. The committee has made it clear that teams who challenge themselves with difficult schedules will be rewarded and teams that don't will be passed over. Here is SOS for the 3 teams:

Temple - 68
BYU - 85
Southern Miss - 127 (last year)

Southern Mississippi was a classic case of the committee feeling that their schedule was just to weak for them to be rewarded

[stever20]

I think the key is SOS. The committee has made it clear that teams who challenge themselves with difficult schedules will be rewarded and teams that don't will be passed over. Here is SOS for the 3 teams:

Temple - 68
BYU - 85
Southern Miss - 127 (last year)

Southern Mississippi was a classic case of the committee feeling that their schedule was just to weak for them to be rewarded

Yeah- totally agree.. I think also Temple is a bad one for BYU to get compared to because Temple is the only other bubble team that can match BYU's win over Gonzaga.

Also, one of Temple's wins could get upgraded to top 50 this week- La Tech right now is #53. So that could help Temple's profile out some as well...

[Bill Marsh]

look at BYU though-
4 top 100 wins, 3 sub 100 losses. 41 RPI
Temple-
6 top 100 wins, 1 sub 100 loss. 32 RPI

BYU with win over Portland/loss to Gonzaga doesn't add anything
Temple with win over Memphis/loss to SMU adds a 7th top 100 win

Profiles like BYU get left out a whole lot more often than Temple's.

As you remember, SMU was (to me) unfairly left out of last year's tourney with a RPI of 33 and a 27-6 record.

SMU had a horrible OOC SOS and had like 3 sub 100 losses. Very different than Temple. And they had a 53 RPI not 33.

Just looking at Lunardi's latest bracket, the team that I think could be the shock miss is more and more VCU. He's got them down to a 10 now. They lose 1st round, they could easily be out.

I assume that the SMU he was talking about was Southern Mississippi, which did have a 32 RPI or something like that, not Southern Methodist.

[stever20]

You may be right. Never heard Southern Miss called SMU before.

[Bill Marsh]

You may be right. Never heard Southern Miss called SMU before.

Agree. I think it's USM. But I have to think they are who he was talking about, based on the comment.

[stever20]

I think if I'm Xavier I'm rooting for Gonzaga Tuesday night vs BYU. A BYU win puts Xavier for instance in Lunardi's bracket math only 5 spots ahead of going to Dayton. No real danger in missing the tourney- but want to obviously avoid Dayton at all costs.

[stever20]

Think it's interesting what Ken Pomeroy said about Tulsa:
So Frank Haith’s team has been able to produce quite a few more wins than the ability of the team would suggest. But they also lost to the Savage Storm of Southeast Oklahoma State, a Division-II school. It’s easily the worst loss for any team under consideration for the tournament. However, this loss is not included in RPI data and nobody seems to know how this loss will be subjectively accounted for by committee members. It seems like something we should have nailed down by now.

It is a very good point that there should be something totally objective done to account for Tulsa losing to SE Oklahoma St. And his final sentence is absolutely on the spot- something we should have nailed down by now.

[BEX]

I think if I'm Xavier I'm rooting for Gonzaga Tuesday night vs BYU. A BYU win puts Xavier for instance in Lunardi's bracket math only 5 spots ahead of going to Dayton. No real danger in missing the tourney- but want to obviously avoid Dayton at all costs.

This ain't our 1st rodeo. 25th, in fact, including 9 of the last 10. Make the Dance and Advance is all that concerns us this time of year.