Bubble Watch

[Jet915]

Texas A&M's RPI is 46 (worse than Xavier), they are 2-6 vs. the Top 50 RPI (two wins are LSU whose RPI is 47). No bad losses but I think they are closer to the bubble then most think. They lose to Alabama at home, they will definitely be on the bubble.

[stever20]

Texas A&M's RPI is 46 (worse than Xavier), they are 2-6 vs. the Top 50 RPI (two wins are LSU whose RPI is 47). No bad losses but I think they are closer to the bubble then most think. They lose to Alabama at home, they will definitely be on the bubble.

A&M likely needs 1 win to make the tourney, either Alabama on Saturday or in the SEC tourney.

Only thing you would think if both A&M and Xavier lose that Xavier would be hurt more in the RPI- but I think because A&M is at home, that would hurt even more.

[GumbyDamnit!]

St John's has to win 4 games to get in. Just looking right now they are a 68% favorite vs Seton Hall. But then they're now a dog to Xavier(49%), 51% vs Georgetown, and 53% @ Marquette. I'm sorry- but to expect this years St John's team to win all of those games- is comical

Other dead on quotes from Stever in this thread concerning SJU:

I don't think there's a doubt in the world- if St John's gets to 19 wins, they are in(with the exception if win #19 is in the 1st rd of the BET vs Creighton or Marquette). I just do not think they are playing well enough to get to 19 wins. St John's last 11 has gone 4-7. With their end schedule though, I just don't see that happening.

If Florida gets to 19-12, their projected RPI is 33.1 with an overall SOS of 6.
Just from a statistical perspective, Florida is in better shape. I mean, St John's would have to win all 5 of their favored games, with 3 being pretty much pick'em type games.

...Bump

[DudeAnon]

St John's has to win 4 games to get in. Just looking right now they are a 68% favorite vs Seton Hall. But then they're now a dog to Xavier(49%), 51% vs Georgetown, and 53% @ Marquette. I'm sorry- but to expect this years St John's team to win all of those games- is comical

Other dead on quotes from Stever in this thread concerning SJU:

I don't think there's a doubt in the world- if St John's gets to 19 wins, they are in(with the exception if win #19 is in the 1st rd of the BET vs Creighton or Marquette). I just do not think they are playing well enough to get to 19 wins. St John's last 11 has gone 4-7. With their end schedule though, I just don't see that happening.

If Florida gets to 19-12, their projected RPI is 33.1 with an overall SOS of 6.
Just from a statistical perspective, Florida is in better shape. I mean, St John's would have to win all 5 of their favored games, with 3 being pretty much pick'em type games.

...Bump

double bump

[DudeAnon]

VCU is the gift that keeps on giving for the A-10. They are down by 20 to Davidson. Which should move them off the bubble.

[stever20]

it's remarkable how bounce of a ball changes things. UConn may be the most snake bit team I've seen in years this year. Tonight they took their 3rd 1 point loss in combination with 3 4 points or less losses. The old adage though from Bill Parcells.... You are what your record says you are.

I think bubble teams still will feel so much better when UConn loses in the AAC tourney.

[Bill Marsh]

After last might's games, we have the following in RPI:

17. VCU
20. Providence
21. Georgetown

As VCU continues to fade, their chances of being dropped a line or two in seeding increase as a result of their personnel losses. This increases the chances of Providence and Georgetown each competing for a 5 seed as long as neither suffers an upset in the BE tournament.

[Omaha1]

After last might's games, we have the following in RPI:

17. VCU
20. Providence
21. Georgetown

As VCU continues to fade, their chances of being dropped a line or two in seeding increase as a result of their personnel losses. This increases the chances of Providence and Georgetown each competing for a 5 seed as long as neither suffers an upset in the BE tournament.

The last month of the season after the injuries VCU has not looked like an NCAA team at all. That has helped the A10 because teams that are on the bubble are beating them and the untrained eye gives them credit for a better win than it is.

[stever20]

After last might's games, we have the following in RPI:

17. VCU
20. Providence
21. Georgetown

As VCU continues to fade, their chances of being dropped a line or two in seeding increase as a result of their personnel losses. This increases the chances of Providence and Georgetown each competing for a 5 seed as long as neither suffers an upset in the BE tournament.

The last month of the season after the injuries VCU has not looked like an NCAA team at all. That has helped the A10 because teams that are on the bubble are beating them and the untrained eye gives them credit for a better win than it is.

yeah although the 2 that are benefitting the most- Dayton and Davidson- were already on the bubble w/o VCU wins. The VCU win just put them over the top.

[cm5yz6]

After last might's games, we have the following in RPI:

17. VCU
20. Providence
21. Georgetown

As VCU continues to fade, their chances of being dropped a line or two in seeding increase as a result of their personnel losses. This increases the chances of Providence and Georgetown each competing for a 5 seed as long as neither suffers an upset in the BE tournament.

Thanks for the VCU update Bill