Bubble Watch

[stever20]

X helped out today with losses by Pitt, Stanford and Purdue.

I don't think X is helped/hurt by those. I think the question with Xavier is how folks on the committee view teams with mediocre records. As the committee has shown recently- mediocre records don't make the tourney much. Since we've gone to 68(this is the 5th year believe it or not), only 5 14 loss teams(all the 1st year) and 0 18 win teams have made the tourney. So in my mind, if the committee doesn't mind mediocre records, they're safe. If they do mind mediocre records, they're out. In a way with them, other teams don't matter quite as much now.

I do wonder how the number of these teams will impact things. That may help X out some.

OTOH, maybe it's just a matter of there not having been any 18-14 teams who were able to put up a top 50 RPI IN THE PAST 2-3 years. Obviously it's unusual for that combination of 18-14 + top 50 RPI.

I think you're adding 2+2 and coming up with 5 by assuming that any committee's decision was based on an 18-14 record. Because that's all you have - an assumption. If you really want to make your case, you have to give examples of teams who were 18-14 AND had a top 50 RPI.

You dismiss 2011 as an anomaly whereas I see it as proof positive of the fact that they will take a 14 loss team if that team has the best credentials. It is the exception but so is 18-14 + top 50 RPI. It all comes down to the resume presented by the other teams competing for the same spot.

We've beaten this poor dead horse mercilessly. I think it will all be moot when Xavier beats Creighton.

Except that Xavier won't have a top 50 RPI. RPI forecast is pretty clear, they expect if Xavier loses to Creighton for Xavier's RPI to be 49. And that makes sense- Xavier is in the 40-42 range for RPI right now- so a loss would drop them down to around 50.

The thing also is Xavier just doesn't compare with 4 of those 5 teams that made the tourney with 14 losses. Only better than USC- who was considered the worst selection ever.

[Bill Marsh]

I don't think X is helped/hurt by those. I think the question with Xavier is how folks on the committee view teams with mediocre records. As the committee has shown recently- mediocre records don't make the tourney much. Since we've gone to 68(this is the 5th year believe it or not), only 5 14 loss teams(all the 1st year) and 0 18 win teams have made the tourney. So in my mind, if the committee doesn't mind mediocre records, they're safe. If they do mind mediocre records, they're out. In a way with them, other teams don't matter quite as much now.

I do wonder how the number of these teams will impact things. That may help X out some.

OTOH, maybe it's just a matter of there not having been any 18-14 teams who were able to put up a top 50 RPI IN THE PAST 2-3 years. Obviously it's unusual for that combination of 18-14 + top 50 RPI.

I think you're adding 2+2 and coming up with 5 by assuming that any committee's decision was based on an 18-14 record. Because that's all you have - an assumption. If you really want to make your case, you have to give examples of teams who were 18-14 AND had a top 50 RPI.

You dismiss 2011 as an anomaly whereas I see it as proof positive of the fact that they will take a 14 loss team if that team has the best credentials. It is the exception but so is 18-14 + top 50 RPI. It all comes down to the resume presented by the other teams competing for the same spot.

We've beaten this poor dead horse mercilessly. I think it will all be moot when Xavier beats Creighton.

Except that Xavier won't have a top 50 RPI. RPI forecast is pretty clear, they expect if Xavier loses to Creighton for Xavier's RPI to be 49. And that makes sense- Xavier is in the 40-42 range for RPI right now- so a loss would drop them down to around 50.

The thing also is Xavier just doesn't compare with 4 of those 5 teams that made the tourney with 14 losses. Only better than USC- who was considered the worst selection ever.

49 isn't in the top 50?

It doesn't matter how X compares to teams for 2011. What matters is how they compare with other bubble teams from 2015.

[stever20]

They would still be taking another loss in the BET. So if they were 49 entering the BET, and lose a game, they aren't going to be in the top 50....

And my point on comparing vs 2011- they took with 1 exception teams that had much better resumes than what Xavier has. If you have bad records you better have not many bad losses(Xavier does), or a poor record away from home(Xavier does).

[NJRedman]

They would still be taking another loss in the BET. So if they were 49 entering the BET, and lose a game, they aren't going to be in the top 50....

And my point on comparing vs 2011- they took with 1 exception teams that had much better resumes than what Xavier has. If you have bad records you better have not many bad losses(Xavier does), or a poor record away from home(Xavier does).

But they wouldn't be the only fringe top 50 team to lose during conference tournys. A lot of them will lose as well.

[stever20]

They would still be taking another loss in the BET. So if they were 49 entering the BET, and lose a game, they aren't going to be in the top 50....

And my point on comparing vs 2011- they took with 1 exception teams that had much better resumes than what Xavier has. If you have bad records you better have not many bad losses(Xavier does), or a poor record away from home(Xavier does).

But they wouldn't be the only fringe top 50 team to lose during conference tournys. A lot of them will lose as well.

a lot will lose without winning a game, but then again, most won't. Also teams ranked below them to start will win games and pass them up as well.

I just think if you are Xavier, you don't want to put yourself in that position.

And if Xavier doesn't make the tourney, they have absolutely no one to blame but themselves. 5 sub 100 losses with only 18-14 record? That's all on them.

[GumbyDamnit!]

They would still be taking another loss in the BET. So if they were 49 entering the BET, and lose a game, they aren't going to be in the top 50....

And my point on comparing vs 2011- they took with 1 exception teams that had much better resumes than what Xavier has. If you have bad records you better have not many bad losses(Xavier does), or a poor record away from home(Xavier does).

Hypotheticals are just that. Show me the specific team(s) that you would put in the tourney over them and then we can compare their resumes and decide who is more deserving. You keep saying that at 18-14 they are out. I may agree with that statement more if you could present the 3-4 teams you'd put in over them. Someone has to make it. Give me your best bets.

I predict X wins vs CU thus making this all a pointless debate.

[stever20]

They would still be taking another loss in the BET. So if they were 49 entering the BET, and lose a game, they aren't going to be in the top 50....

And my point on comparing vs 2011- they took with 1 exception teams that had much better resumes than what Xavier has. If you have bad records you better have not many bad losses(Xavier does), or a poor record away from home(Xavier does).

Hypotheticals are just that. Show me the specific team(s) that you would put in the tourney over them and then we can compare their resumes and decide who is more deserving. You keep saying that at 18-14 they are out. I may agree with that statement more if you could present the 3-4 teams you'd put in over them. Someone has to make it. Give me your best bets.

I predict X wins vs CU thus making this all a pointless debate.

my point at 18-14, a lot of folks on the committee wouldn't even consider them. Even so, right now Xavier is 41 in the RPI. 38 of the 40 teams get in before Xavier does if Xavier loses out(only Buffalo doesn't and Oklahoma St as well...). 10 auto bids in there. So that takes 28 of the 36 at larges. Then just above Xavier in the RPI right now.... Davidson, Indiana, LSU, Iowa, and Ole Miss. That gets us up to 33. You have Cincy, UCLA, and NC State(though with both UCLA and NC State you have the 14 loss issue with them.). You have Purdue. You have Oklahoma St if they can beat TCU and West Virginia getting in.

Right now, top 30 of the RPI, only Georgetown doesn't have 20 wins. You go top 40- add to that number 5 more teams who don't have 20 wins. So only 6 of the top 40 don't have 20 wins(those 6 teams- Georgetown, Buffalo, Mich St, Georgia, St John's, and Oklahoma St). Of those 4- 4 are pretty much locks now. . With only 4 teams in the top 40 not having top 100 schedules. Those 4 teams- Northern Iowa, Colorado St, Notre Dame, and Dayton- 3 pretty much locks and Colorado St very good chance of getting in.. So top 40 is pretty much safe with 2-3 exceptions. Even 41-50- only 5 don't have 20 wins(Xavier, Indiana, Texas, Ole Miss, and Pittsburgh), and only 2 don't have top 100 schedules(Davidson and Old Dominion). I think it's pretty telling that of the top 50 of the RPI right now only 6 teams aren't in the top 100 SOS.

I too think Xavier beats Creighton, even with it being Creighton's senior day. Xavier should come out a desperate basketball team.

[TheBall]

In the past 20 years, 7 teams have danced as at large bids with 14 losses. Georgia in early 2000's, arizona in 2008, and 5 teams in 2011

Of course you would rather not be in the position to have to dance with that many losses, as it is not frequent. But x's resume compares favorably to those teams.

[stever20]

In the past 20 years, 7 teams have danced as at large bids with 14 losses. Georgia in early 2000's, arizona in 2008, and 5 teams in 2011

Of course you would rather not be in the position to have to dance with that many losses, as it is not frequent. But x's resume compares favorably to those teams.

X's resume does not compare with any of the 5 teams in 2011 except for USC(who was probably the worst team EVER to be selected). Arizona in 2008- 11 top 100 wins and only 2 bad losses, and 8-8 away from home- that resume is better than X's..... Georgia in 2000- you can't compare the committee back then to now.

Saw Team Rankings gives Xavier at 18 wins a 25% chance now of making it. It's not impossible, but man you don't want to take those odds at all.

[gavitspeaks]

X helped out today with losses by Pitt, Stanford and Purdue.

I don't think X is helped/hurt by those. I think the question with Xavier is how folks on the committee view teams with mediocre records. As the committee has shown recently- mediocre records don't make the tourney much. Since we've gone to 68(this is the 5th year believe it or not), only 5 14 loss teams(all the 1st year) and 0 18 win teams have made the tourney. So in my mind, if the committee doesn't mind mediocre records, they're safe. If they do mind mediocre records, they're out. In a way with them, other teams don't matter quite as much now.

I do wonder how the number of these teams will impact things. That may help X out some.

I do think it could help us get 6 (and thus help Xavier) when considering there really isnt a great pool of 68 teams to choose from. The last 3-5 teams aren't overly deserving.