Bubble Watch

[gavitspeaks]

I think we should all consider it a job well done if we get 5 in, which we will. Gonna be tough to get that sixth team in I think. As we said a week or two ago, teams will play their way in and out. That's happened. St. John's is in. Purdue will likely be in. Davidson has a legit chance, which after today's UD win, likely means 3 from the A10.

No offense to Xavier but they haven't olayed themselves in. Xavier is hanging it's hat on SOS. They are better than that. That's a weak argument. Their last 11 games have not been good.

Congrats to the Johnnies!!!!! Great stuff. That's a terrific story.[/quote]

I see Xavier differently than that. While SOS is certainly in their favor, they have more than that going for them. It's not like they've been simply losing games vs a tough schedule. Consider the following:

- 3-3 vs top 25






I have no problem with Xavier getting in. That would be great. Your point about being 3-3 vs. The Top 25 is well taken and understood. I'm saying that it's getting crowded and I could see them being left out with maybe some likelihood of playing in the PIG in Dayton. Let's face it 6-5 in the last 11 is average...very average. 18-13 is average too and knowledgable Xavier fans will admit that.

would be great to get them in. Prepared for them to be out though.
- 4-3 vs 26-50

I'm not sure what your problem is with their last 11 games. They've gone 6-5 against a tough schedule. Sure they had a loss to Creighton, but on the other hand, they had road wins over Georgetown and Cincinnati.

The Big East will get 6.[/quote]

[Bill Marsh]

If X loses at Creighton they have no chance of NCAA. They are already on bubble with a very good chance of returning to Dayton.

I realize Dayton fans hate X more than they like UD. But unless you haven't noticed. You're not in this conference .

that's just a ridiculous comment, I have no feelings toward X and I'm on the record saying it's not fair to send X to Dayton for the PIG because of the reception they'll receive from the largely under 40 crowd...if you're over 40 years old you have a lot more perspective on UD-X. If X doesn't win @ Creighton their done, they'll be the loser of 3 straight, 4-6 over their last 10 with an rpi of 49. Take the name away from the team in front of that resume and give me your analysis.

Last 10 games doesn't matter. They look at the entire body of work. The issue really is how does that body of work compare with other teams that are competing for the last few spots. I guarantee you that there are others who will have similar negatives. In Xavier's case , they have positives to counterbalance those negatives that some others don't have.

An RPI of 48 by itself is good enough to get in. Usually teams that are dropped to the wrong side of the bubble are teams with weak SOS, not teams with top 20 SOS like Xavier.

[Bill Marsh]

I have no problem with Xavier getting in. That would be great. Your point about being 3-3 vs. The Top 25 is well taken and understood. I'm saying that it's getting crowded and I could see them being left out with maybe some likelihood of playing in the PIG in Dayton. Let's face it 6-5 in the last 11 is average...very average. 18-13 is average too and knowledgable Xavier fans will admit that.

would be great to get them in. Prepared for them to be out though.

Good points. Xavier can remove all doubt by winning the Creighton game. I think they'll be highly motivated, both for a win to get into the tournament and to get revenge for getting beaten by Creighton earlier in the season. Little doubt that they'll win that game IMO.

[stever20]

The problem with Xavier is a loss to Creighton, and then in the BET:
18-14 record
They get up to 5 sub 100 losses- that's a whole lot.
only 5-11 away from home, with 4 sub 100 losses
The RPI best case would be right around 50, though could be worse than that. RPI Forecast has Xavier's RPI with a loss to Creighton at 49.4. A loss in the BET would take them down further. So it won't be 48.

SOS can only take you so far. At some point, you have to have the wins.

1 thing I will say, Xavier caught a big break in Seton Hall beating Creighton yesterday. May keep Seton Hall in the RPI top 100. That would have been a 6th sub 100 loss.

The one reason why Xavier could struggle vs Creighton is that it's Creighton Senior day. Look at what Xavier did 1st half with Nova.

1 thing with the current RPI for Xavier- right now it's .5847 at #39. #46 LSU is at .5824. That's a gap of only .0023. That's a pretty small gap. They could be down to 42 just today...

[Jet915]

X helped out today with losses by Pitt, Stanford and Purdue.

[TheBall]

Pitt's bubble goes pop. Terrible loss to wake forest

[stever20]

X helped out today with losses by Pitt, Stanford and Purdue.

I don't think X is helped/hurt by those. I think the question with Xavier is how folks on the committee view teams with mediocre records. As the committee has shown recently- mediocre records don't make the tourney much. Since we've gone to 68(this is the 5th year believe it or not), only 5 14 loss teams(all the 1st year) and 0 18 win teams have made the tourney. So in my mind, if the committee doesn't mind mediocre records, they're safe. If they do mind mediocre records, they're out. In a way with them, other teams don't matter quite as much now.

I do wonder how the number of these teams will impact things. That may help X out some.

[TheBall]

Xavier has 4 top 50 wins (actually all of those are top 25, but that may change). They have 9 total top 100 wins.

Teams with that many quality wins don't usually get left out. That's the type of thing the committee can point to to justify their inclusion. Ability to beat good teams.

[stever20]

Xavier has 4 top 50 wins (actually all of those are top 25, but that may change). They have 9 total top 100 wins.

Teams with that many quality wins don't usually get left out. That's the type of thing the committee can point to to justify their inclusion. Ability to beat good teams.

If Xavier had no bad losses I think it would be a different story. But they would have 5 sub 100 losses at that point. That's a lot.

My point is pretty simple. A team that is trying to get in with only 18 wins or 14 losses, doesn't need many warts.

look back in 2011 when 5 14 loss teams made the tourney
Penn St- 1 sub 100 loss, 6-9 away from home, #8 SOS, 10 top 100 wins
Mich St- 1 sub 100 loss, 6-11 away from home, #14 SOS, 10 top 100 wins
Tennessee- 3 sub 100 losses, 9-6 away from home, #4 SOS, 11 top 100 wins
USC 7 sub 100 losses, 7-10 away from home, #37 SOS, 8 top 100 wins
Marquette 1 sub 100 loss, 6-10 away from home, #20 SOS, 7 top 100 wins

now look at Xavier 4 sub 100 losses(would be 5), 5-9 away from home(would be 5-11), right now #14 SOS(but would go down a bit after Creighton), 9 top 100 wins

Outside of USC(who many said was the worst selection by the committee ever), Xavier doesn't measure up well with the others. Marquette had 2 fewer top 100 wins, but also 4 fewer sub 100 losses and was a game better away from home.

[Bill Marsh]

X helped out today with losses by Pitt, Stanford and Purdue.

I don't think X is helped/hurt by those. I think the question with Xavier is how folks on the committee view teams with mediocre records. As the committee has shown recently- mediocre records don't make the tourney much. Since we've gone to 68(this is the 5th year believe it or not), only 5 14 loss teams(all the 1st year) and 0 18 win teams have made the tourney. So in my mind, if the committee doesn't mind mediocre records, they're safe. If they do mind mediocre records, they're out. In a way with them, other teams don't matter quite as much now.

I do wonder how the number of these teams will impact things. That may help X out some.

OTOH, maybe it's just a matter of there not having been any 18-14 teams who were able to put up a top 50 RPI IN THE PAST 2-3 years. Obviously it's unusual for that combination of 18-14 + top 50 RPI.

I think you're adding 2+2 and coming up with 5 by assuming that any committee's decision was based on an 18-14 record. Because that's all you have - an assumption. If you really want to make your case, you have to give examples of teams who were 18-14 AND had a top 50 RPI.

You dismiss 2011 as an anomaly whereas I see it as proof positive of the fact that they will take a 14 loss team if that team has the best credentials. It is the exception but so is 18-14 + top 50 RPI. It all comes down to the resume presented by the other teams competing for the same spot.

We've beaten this poor dead horse mercilessly. I think it will all be moot when Xavier beats Creighton.