Bubble Watch

[stever20]

looking at the top to see how this could impact the higher seeds for once....

Kentucky RPI 1 NCAA SOS 35 opp SOS 4
Kansas RPI 2 NCAA SOS 1 Opp SOS 3
Virginia RPI 3 NCAA SOS 13 Opp SOS 19
Nova RPI 4 NCAA SOS 30 Opp SOS 8
Duke RPI 5 NCAA SOS 9 Opp SOS 23
Wisconsin RPI 6 NCAA SOS 22 Opp SOS 13
Arizona RPI 7 NCAA SOS 44 Opp SOS 25
Gonzaga RPI 8 NCAA SOS 77 Opp SOS 80

So looking at it, Kentucky, Nova, Wisconsin, and Arizona all impacted with the opp SOS better than their own SOS.
Virginia and Duke both impacted with the opp SOS worse than their own SOS.
Kansas and Gonzaga only impacted by 2-3 spots...

Almost made the mistake- Maryland is #9- almost was going to throw them in the same boat as UVA/Duke with the ACC- but of course they are in the Big Ten now.

I'll say a MAJOR one. VCU. NCAA SOS is a whopping 6. Opp SOS is 74!
Colorado ST NCAA 95 Opp 128

some are the other way though.
Northern Iowa. NCAA SOS is 154. Opp SOS is 97. 55 spot difference
Notre Dame. NCAA SOS is 128. Opp SOS is 27. 101 spot difference!!!!!!
Dayton. NCAA SOS is 138. Opp SOS is 71. 67 spot difference

[FormulaX]

Really, Tulsa still? They will be FAR OUT... They matched up well and beat Temple 2x. Besides that, BEST wins vs rpi 79 Memph and rpi 81 uConn. No other rpi 100 wins. none! But, 10! 200+ wins. Losses vs rpi 179 and a div. 2 team. OUT OUT OUT
*I bet many of these bracket heads dont even know about the div 2 loss. The committee will.

[stever20]

Really, Tulsa still? They will be FAR OUT... They matched up well and beat Temple 2x. Besides that, BEST wins vs rpi 79 Memph and rpi 81 uConn. No other rpi 100 wins. none! But, 10! 200+ wins. Losses vs rpi 179 and a div. 2 team. OUT OUT OUT
*I bet many of these bracket heads dont even know about the div 2 loss. The committee will.

A lot of those bracket heads regularly get every team in the tourney 100% correct.

Also Tulsa has some of their big games left. @ Memphis and Cincy are 2 huge chances for them to get 2 top 100 wins. Get both and they're 6-6 vs RPI top 100 along with a pretty decent schedule.

to put things in perspective. ESPN last year had 9 conferences they felt had separated getting all the at larges- I'm adding a 10th in the MVC.. It was the F5, BE, AAC, A10, MWC, and MVC.
AAC- 5 teams at least 5 games over .500
A10- 6 teams at least 5 games over .500
ACC- 8 teams at least 5 games over .500
B12- 8 teams at least 5 games over .500
BE- 6 teams at least 5 games over .500
B10- 8 teams at least 5 games over .500
MVC- 4 teams at least 5 games over .500
MWC- 5 teams at least 5 games over .500
P12- 6 teams at least 5 games over .500
SEC- 7 teams at least 5 games over .500
total- 63 teams. Now subtract 10 with auto bids. That leaves 53 teams battling for 36 at larges. Now maybe there's a Old Dominion in CUSA, Buffalo in the MAC- but that would be it.

Now of those 53 teams.....
that includes-
MVC- Evansville and Illinois have no shot.
P12- Cal doesn't have much of a shot.
SEC- Alabama doesn't have much of a shot.
B12- TCU doesn't have much of a shot.
A10- GW, UMass don't have much of a shot
AAC- Memphis doesn't have much of a shot
So with those 7 teams out, that takes you down to 46 teams, with 36 making it.

[gavitspeaks]

Really, Tulsa still? They will be FAR OUT... They matched up well and beat Temple 2x. Besides that, BEST wins vs rpi 79 Memph and rpi 81 uConn. No other rpi 100 wins. none! But, 10! 200+ wins. Losses vs rpi 179 and a div. 2 team. OUT OUT OUT
*I bet many of these bracket heads dont even know about the div 2 loss. The committee will.

Davidson is getting in. Possibly Rhode Island. Tough loss for Indiana U tonight. They may end up as a final bid or out with the way they are playing.

[stever20]

Wyoming loses to Fresno St eliminating any chance of an at large for them from the MWC- even with a 21-7 record. 3 teams max from the MWC.

[stever20]

in late action UCLA hammering Washington(talk about another team along with Florida that has just gone into the tank just about- remember they were 11-0 at one point- they then lost to Stony Brook and now have lost 11 of 15.)- and Oregon beating Cal.

[stever20]

Teams in Lunardi's last 8 in/1st 8 out that won on Wednesday
Cincy- 7th team in
Oregon- 3rd team in
UCLA- last team in
Davidson- 2nd team out
Boise St- 3rd team out
Tulsa- 5th team out
Miami- 6th team out

teams in Lunardi's last 8 in/1st 8 out that lost on Wednesday-
Illinois- 2nd team in
Rhode Island- 8th team out

Have to think the loss knocks Illinois out of the bracket. 1st team out was Stanford, though Davidson may pass them with their big win at Rhode Island tonight.

[Bill Marsh]

Georgia came up with a big road win overOle Miss, removing any doubts about their status and putting pressure on Ole Miss to win down the stretch.

Illinois dropped their 3rd in a row, losing to Iowa, and has pretty much faded from the tournament picture.

[admin]

This morning from Lunardi:

[Bill Marsh]

Davidson and UCLA sure helped themselves last night. Davidson seems solid. The remaining schedule favors UCLA.

URI and Illinois are in trouble.