Bubble Watch

[stever20]

Bill it's 20/75. That's a whole hell of a lot greater percentage than only 20%. Also 13/32 that posted brackets today have Tulsa in- over 40%.

Of all the teams out right now in the bracket matrix- only UCLA is in more brackets overall- at 38/75. However, of the ones that posted brackets today only 6/32 have UCLA in.

Also to put things in perspective- the last team in the bracket Matrix is Stanford. They are at 55/75. Of the ones posted brackets today, it's 23/32

The site's just been updated to reflect the latest brackets. Thanks for bringing us the update. Steve. But 20/75 isn't a hole lot greater than 20%; it's 26.6%.

I agree that Tulsa helped themselves with the win over Temple. I posted that this morning. But 40% having them in still means that the majority (60%) have them out. I'm willing to bet that a lot of these bracket posters are just crunching the numbers to come up with an overnight result. The committee will be spending 4 full days with reports from staff who have been compiling information weeks in advance. I'm sure that a percentage of the overnight bracketers are overlooking the SEOS loss. I highly doubt that the committee will.

I think your perception of these bracketologists is crazy. They spend a whole lot more time on it than you do. To act like they haven't taken the loss into account is a joke. Tulsa right now has #39 RPI.

Also remember what Jerry Palm said. The SEOS loss is a small slice of a huge cake. It's not the death ray that you want to make it out to be.

[stever20]

Here's the official NCAA RPI as of today...
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi
Villanova 5
Georgetown 21
Providence 22
Butler 23
Xavier 30
St John's 46
Seton Hall 71
Creighton 133
Marquette 143
DePaul 147

For the AAC top teams:
SMU 18
Temple 31
Tulsa 39
Cincy 49

For the A10 top teams
VCU 12
Dayton 35
UMass 38
Davidson 57

[stever20]

Just looking there are 32 teams in every bracket done today in an at large or auto position(10.12 lowest average). This included 11 automatic champions. So that would be 21 at larges there. 7 more auto champions(12.27 or lower) are on every bracket done today. So that's up to 18 automatic champions. 39 teams on every bracket today.

then with 32/33 brackets- you add 6 at larges, so up to 27 at larges. Also then add 2 more auto bids- so up to 20 auto bids...

Then with 31/33 brackets you add 2 at larges, up to 29. Also then add 2 more auto bids so up to 22 auto bids...

Then with 30/33 brackets you add 2 at larges, up to 31. Also then add 2 more auto bids so up to 24 auto bids.
29/33 you add 1 more at larges, so up to 32. Also 2 more auto bids so up to 26 auto bids.

looking near the bottom of the bracket
2nd 4 byes-
Iowa 32 9.75 avg
Texas 32 9.938 avg
Texas A&M 32 10.00 avg
Cincy 31 10.03 avg

last 4 byes-
NC State 31 10.71 avg
LSU 30 10.13 avg
Purdue 30 10.87 avg
Oregon 29 10.62 avg

last 4 in:
Dayton 28 9.607
Temple 28 9.786
Stanford 23 11.3
Illinois with 21 10.9
----------------------------------------
Tulsa with 13 11.15
Pittsburgh 8 10.75
Boise St 7 11.43
Old Dominion 7 12.14
UCLA 6 11.33
Davidson 6 11.83
BYU 3 10
Miami 3 11.33

To your point about Tulsa, I would suggest that it's possible more folks didn't give proper time to Illinois after their loss, and we may see that reflected later.

[HoosierPal]

He's got Temple and Cincy as 2 of the last 4 byes. So they are the 7th and 8th to last at large teams in.
He's got Tulsa as the 3rd team out.

St John's I wouldn't call comfortably in. They lose tonight to Xavier and things start changing for them big time. Have to at that point beat either Georgetown, Nova, or 1st rd of BET to get in along with the win over Marquette.

I agree on STJ needing to win tonight. They don't want to have a sub .500 conference record on the resume come selection day. 9-9 is fine, 8-10 draws unnecessary attention.

As many brackets have Tulsa in today as have them out. So it's too early to celebrate either way. A somewhat common list of today's bubble teams compiled from several sites include these 10: UCLA, Illinois, UMass, Pittsburgh, Davidson, ODU, Miami, BYU, Boise St., Rhode Island. There's not much love for Buffalo out there.

From 96 different brackets, only 19 have Tulsa in. 80% have Tulsa out. Check http://www.bracketmatrix.com.

Yes, not much love for Buffalo. Toledo gets the nod from the MAC. Maybe they seem some advantage for them due to the tourney location.

Here's the composite last to in, starting with the very last in:

Stanford
Purdue
Oregon
Illinois
NC State
Texas A&M
LSU
Georgia
St. John's
Iowa

You are looking at old numbers. More like 40% of current brackets have them in. To say that Tulsa is not in the NCAA conversation today isn't accurate. They may not be in the conversation this time next week, but today they are a bubble team.

[Bill Marsh]

Bill it's 20/75. That's a whole hell of a lot greater percentage than only 20%. Also 13/32 that posted brackets today have Tulsa in- over 40%.

Of all the teams out right now in the bracket matrix- only UCLA is in more brackets overall- at 38/75. However, of the ones that posted brackets today only 6/32 have UCLA in.

Also to put things in perspective- the last team in the bracket Matrix is Stanford. They are at 55/75. Of the ones posted brackets today, it's 23/32

The site's just been updated to reflect the latest brackets. Thanks for bringing us the update. Steve. But 20/75 isn't a hole lot greater than 20%; it's 26.6%.

I agree that Tulsa helped themselves with the win over Temple. I posted that this morning. But 40% having them in still means that the majority (60%) have them out. I'm willing to bet that a lot of these bracket posters are just crunching the numbers to come up with an overnight result. The committee will be spending 4 full days with reports from staff who have been compiling information weeks in advance. I'm sure that a percentage of the overnight bracketers are overlooking the SEOS loss. I highly doubt that the committee will.

I think your perception of these bracketologists is crazy. They spend a whole lot more time on it than you do. To act like they haven't taken the loss into account is a joke. Tulsa right now has #39 RPI.

Also remember what Jerry Palm said. The SEOS loss is a small slice of a huge cake. It's not the death ray that you want to make it out to be.

I see that I'm keeping you in stitches.

Right after telling me how they take into account every loss, you proceed to quote their RPI, a metric that doesn't include the worst loss on their schedule. Without that loss, their RPI is meaningless.

Tulsa's current RPI does not include the SEOS loss, but their will be 5-6 conference representatives of conferences with members competing for at-large spots who will be quick to point it out.

Contrast their RPI with their BPI rank (86) or their similar low ranking on any other power rating (Sagarin, Jerry Palm, etc). Those do a much better job of picking up the weaknesses in their schedule and their limited number of good wins.

As for the bracketologists putting time into their picks, I agree that most of them do, which is why the vast majority of them agree with me that Tulsa is not going to the tournament. K was talking about a minority who plug info into their computers and post the results that the computer spits out. Regardless none of these one man shows puts in the man hours on a single bracket that the committee and it's staff will invest in the final decision for Selection Sunday.

[gofriars08]

If you equate the SEOS loss for Tulsa to losing to the worst D-1 team (Grambling), RPI Wizard forecasts their RPI would drop by 26 points from 39th to 65th adding that game in. It has a massive impact on their resume and I hope the Committee recognizes that.

[stever20]

the thing that is amazing Bill is how you don't think they have a prayer, but between all the bracketologists who have them either in, or in the 1st 4 out- that would tell a completely different story. Just stop with the idiotic well only 25/91 people have them in the bracket so that proves they aren't in serious consideration. That may be the dumbest thing you have ever said.

I think it's pretty simple for Tulsa. If they win 3 of their final 4 games, they are going to be in the tourney.

The problem also with your logic Bill is you know damn well that advanced metrics are used no where near as much as the RPI.
last year RPI top 53- only 5 teams missed the tourney.
Southern Miss 34
Toledo 38
Missouri 44
Minnesota 48
Belmont 51

Meanwhile 7 top 52 teams from Ken Pom missed the tourney, and 6 of the top 44.

[billyjack]

How do numbers compare between Tulsa 2015 and SMU 2014...?

Same top heavy conference ranked 6-7-8 or whatever.
Neither had/has a strong OOC schedule.

Frankie The Barber From Pawtucket warned you about SMU not dancing last year.
Frankie The Barber From Pawtucket is warning you about Tulsa not dancing this year.
Why do you insist on ignoring Frankie The Barber From Pawtucket...? You ignore him at your peril...! Or Tulsa's peril...

[billyjack]

Tulsa 2015:

Tulsa 2015 OOC wins:
133 Auburn. neutral.
135 Creighton. home.
147 Incarnate Word. home.
186 UL-Lafayette. home.
223 Missouri State. home.
278 Ark-Little Rock. away.
314 Abilene Christian. home.

Tulsa 2015 OOC losses:
179 Oral Roberts. neutral.
29 Oklahoma State. neutral.
16 Oklahoma. home.
15 Wichita State. away.
Div-2 SE Okla.

Tulsa 2015 Best Wins:
32 Temple. home.
32 Temple. away.
79 Memphis. home.

Yeesh.


SMU 2014:

SMU 2014 OOC Wins:
126 Sam Houston.
141 Wyoming.
147 Texas A&M.
156 Rhode Island.
215 TCU.
265 Ark- Pine Bluff.
270 McNeese State.
276 Hofstra.
307 Texas State.
312 Tx Pan American.
317 Ill-Chicago.

SMU 2014 OOC Losses:
10 Virginia.
67 Arkansas.

SMU 2014 Best Wins:
5 Connecticut.
5 Connecticut again.
22 Cincinnati.
30 Memphis.

[stever20]

How do numbers compare between Tulsa 2015 and SMU 2014...?

Same top heavy conference ranked 6-7-8 or whatever.
Neither had/has a strong OOC schedule.

Frankie The Barber From Pawtucket warned you about SMU not dancing last year.
Frankie The Barber From Pawtucket is warning you about Tulsa not dancing this year.
Why do you insist on ignoring Frankie The Barber From Pawtucket...? You ignore him at your peril...! Or Tulsa's peril...

SMU's OOC schedule last year- #288
Tulsa's OOC schedule this year- #125

so what in the heck are you talking about?

What's amazing right now is if Creighton had been having a great year, Tulsa would be in right now.