Bubble Watch

[DudeAnon]

I am thinking about doing some number crunching to try and quantify exactly how seeds are determined. Some factors (apart from the normal) I am considering:

- Conference affiliation
- Date of win/loss
- Margin of win/loss
- Timezone of team
- Alphabetical
- State vs City vs Neither
- Channel team plays on
- Historical performance

Will be interesting to see some of the correlations that are found. (As always, correlation doesn't always equal causation)

[Dew]

Fwiw Lunardi has 6 Big East comfortably in. AAC with only 3, including Temple and Cincy among the last teams in.

[stever20]

Fwiw Lunardi has 6 Big East comfortably in. AAC with only 3, including Temple and Cincy among the last teams in.

He's got Temple and Cincy as 2 of the last 4 byes. So they are the 7th and 8th to last at large teams in.
He's got Tulsa as the 3rd team out.

St John's I wouldn't call comfortably in. They lose tonight to Xavier and things start changing for them big time. Have to at that point beat either Georgetown, Nova, or 1st rd of BET to get in along with the win over Marquette.

[stever20]

to expand on my last post- Given Temple is a 10 seed, St John's is within 3 spots of them- along with Iowa and Colorado St.

[HoosierPal]

I am thinking about doing some number crunching to try and quantify exactly how seeds are determined. Some factors (apart from the normal) I am considering:

- Conference affiliation
- Date of win/loss
- Margin of win/loss
- Timezone of team
- Alphabetical
- State vs City vs Neither
- Channel team plays on
- Historical performance

Will be interesting to see some of the correlations that are found. (As always, correlation doesn't always equal causation)

Alphabetical is a HUGE factor for seeding. But is it A to Z or Z to A? Very important to Xavier.

[HoosierPal]

He's got Temple and Cincy as 2 of the last 4 byes. So they are the 7th and 8th to last at large teams in.
He's got Tulsa as the 3rd team out.

St John's I wouldn't call comfortably in. They lose tonight to Xavier and things start changing for them big time. Have to at that point beat either Georgetown, Nova, or 1st rd of BET to get in along with the win over Marquette.

I agree on STJ needing to win tonight. They don't want to have a sub .500 conference record on the resume come selection day. 9-9 is fine, 8-10 draws unnecessary attention.

As many brackets have Tulsa in today as have them out. So it's too early to celebrate either way. A somewhat common list of today's bubble teams compiled from several sites include these 10: UCLA, Illinois, UMass, Pittsburgh, Davidson, ODU, Miami, BYU, Boise St., Rhode Island. There's not much love for Buffalo out there.

[DudeAnon]

I am thinking about doing some number crunching to try and quantify exactly how seeds are determined. Some factors (apart from the normal) I am considering:

- Conference affiliation
- Date of win/loss
- Margin of win/loss
- Timezone of team
- Alphabetical
- State vs City vs Neither
- Channel team plays on
- Historical performance

Will be interesting to see some of the correlations that are found. (As always, correlation doesn't always equal causation)

Alphabetical is a HUGE factor for seeding. But is it A to Z or Z to A? Very important to Xavier.

People are lazy, and will often give preference to the first option they are presented with. You will see it in marketplaces everywhere.

[Bill Marsh]

He's got Temple and Cincy as 2 of the last 4 byes. So they are the 7th and 8th to last at large teams in.
He's got Tulsa as the 3rd team out.

St John's I wouldn't call comfortably in. They lose tonight to Xavier and things start changing for them big time. Have to at that point beat either Georgetown, Nova, or 1st rd of BET to get in along with the win over Marquette.

I agree on STJ needing to win tonight. They don't want to have a sub .500 conference record on the resume come selection day. 9-9 is fine, 8-10 draws unnecessary attention.

As many brackets have Tulsa in today as have them out. So it's too early to celebrate either way. A somewhat common list of today's bubble teams compiled from several sites include these 10: UCLA, Illinois, UMass, Pittsburgh, Davidson, ODU, Miami, BYU, Boise St., Rhode Island. There's not much love for Buffalo out there.

From 96 different brackets, only 19 have Tulsa in. 80% have Tulsa out. Check http://www.bracketmatrix.com.

Yes, not much love for Buffalo. Toledo gets the nod from the MAC. Maybe they seem some advantage for them due to the tourney location.

Here's the composite last to in, starting with the very last in:

Stanford
Purdue
Oregon
Illinois
NC State
Texas A&M
LSU
Georgia
St. John's
Iowa

[stever20]

Bill it's 20/75. That's a whole hell of a lot greater percentage than only 20%. Also 13/32 that posted brackets today have Tulsa in- over 40%.

Of all the teams out right now in the bracket matrix- only UCLA is in more brackets overall- at 38/75. However, of the ones that posted brackets today only 6/32 have UCLA in.

Also to put things in perspective- the last team in the bracket Matrix is Stanford. They are at 55/75. Of the ones posted brackets today, it's 23/32

[Bill Marsh]

Bill it's 20/75. That's a whole hell of a lot greater percentage than only 20%. Also 13/32 that posted brackets today have Tulsa in- over 40%.

Of all the teams out right now in the bracket matrix- only UCLA is in more brackets overall- at 38/75. However, of the ones that posted brackets today only 6/32 have UCLA in.

Also to put things in perspective- the last team in the bracket Matrix is Stanford. They are at 55/75. Of the ones posted brackets today, it's 23/32

The site's just been updated to reflect the latest brackets. Thanks for bringing us the update. Steve. But 20/75 isn't a hole lot greater than 20%; it's 26.6%.

I agree that Tulsa helped themselves with the win over Temple. I posted that this morning. But 40% having them in still means that the majority (60%) have them out. I'm willing to bet that a lot of these bracket posters are just crunching the numbers to come up with an overnight result. The committee will be spending 4 full days with reports from staff who have been compiling information weeks in advance. I'm sure that a percentage of the overnight bracketers are overlooking the SEOS loss. I highly doubt that the committee will.