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[stever20]

I am confident we will have six teams in the dance. Looking at competitors however I think we must note the A-10 has fallen from 6 last year to 2 or perhaps 3 this year whilst the ACC will have 4 this year just as they had last year however all of their 4 are rated lower than last year except SMU. One good thing for the AAC is two of their power teams Uconn and Memphis are out of the running this year. Should Uconn and Memphis return to the norm next year they could have 6 teams in the dance in 2016. I must admit I thought when they brought Tulsa into what was clearly a makeshift conference they were making a huge mistake. If I remember correctly only Stever was touting Tulsa as anything other than a last resort. Either he was correct or Tulsa may be a one shot wonder.

I don't think I would say they would have a chance at 6- but 4-5 normal for them seems very reasonable- especially if the A10 and MWC continue to falter.

Tulsa made the tourney last year by winning CUSA... Also they do have past history- they have 15 NCAA appearances, with 14 of them since 1982.

Just looking- this Tulsa group has 7 juniors. Assuming all come back next year, they're going to be that senior laden team. It'll be interesting to see how they are in 2 years.

What's been huge for the AAC is that Temple is back after 1 year. That's been the thing keeping them afloat I think this year.

[R Jay]

We'll know more about Tulsa in two years after Danny Manning's final big (7, yes 7 member) recruiting class graduates. After that we will see how Haith recruits and whether or not they will be regular competitors.

[PorthosPA]

This was Lunardi's seed list entering today:
Saturday seed list (CAPS=AQs): 01-UK, 02-UVA, 03-Duke, 04-ZAGA, 05-WISC, 06-NOVA, 07-ZONA, 08-KU, 09-Utah, 10-IowaSt, 11-NDame, 12-Unc...
..13-Okla, 14-Lville, 15-UNI, 16-Wichita, 17-Baylor, 18-Md, 19-But, 20-Arka, 21-VCU, 22-SMU, 23-Prov, 24-Gtown, 25-Wvu, 26-OklaSt, 27-SDST..
28-MichSt, 29-Ohio St, 30-Texas, 31-Day, 32-OleMiss, 33-Xav, 34-Iu, 35-Ga, 36-Temp, 37-Iowa, 38-A&M, 39-ColoSt, 40-Cincy, 41-Lsu, 42-Ucla...
...43-Illini, 44-Stan, 45-Purd, 46-StJohn, 47-NCSt, 48-HARV, 49-WOFF, 50-IONA, 51-MURR, 52-VALPO, 53-LATECH, 54-TOLEDO, 55-EWASH, 56-SAMH...
...57-UCDAVIS, 58-SDAKST, 59-W&M, 60-HIGHPT, 61-BMST, 62-FGCU, 63-ALBA, 64-NCCU, 65-ULMONR, 66-STFRAN(NY, 67-BUCK, 68-TEXSO.
FOUR OUT: BoiseSt, Davidson, Tulsa, Miami-FL. NEXT FOUR: Oregon, BYU, URI, UMass. FOUR MORE: Pitt, StMary, ODU, SFAustin.

Just looking today Butler only one in the top 25 that lost. VCU got a decent win over UMass, WVU got a win over 26 Okla St.

around Xavier is huge. 30 Texas and 31 Dayton both lost. So X may get up to the 8 line already.

With St John's- 42 UCLA lost but that was it. A win over Seton Hall right now doesn't mean much at all so probably will remain around 45. I guess the big question will be does UCLA stick or does one of Boise/Davidson/Tulsa enter the bracket.

seems the big losers today- Miami, Umass, St Mary's.

Ohio St. lost today @Michigan too.

Now #26 Ok St, #29 Ohio St, #30 Texas, and #31 Dayton have all lost since he made this list. I don't know if X jumped Ok St, considering they lost to #25 WVU, but I think they passed the other 3. They might have even jumped Ole Miss (2 point home win vs. Tennessee), and they have a chance to possibly jump #28 Michigan st (@Illinois tonight). That means that X is probably sitting anywhere from 28-30 on his list right now (last 7 seed or first or second 8), with the possibility of moving up 1 later tonight (depending on if a win vs. a non-full strength Butler is worthy of jumping a Mich St loss @Illinois). Obviously, Lunardi's word isn't gospel, but he's usually either right or only off +/- a seed. Hopefully (at least for X fans), Xavier finishes strong and can avoid the 8-9 game.

[Bill Marsh]

I am confident we will have six teams in the dance. Looking at competitors however I think we must note the A-10 has fallen from 6 last year to 2 or perhaps 3 this year whilst the ACC will have 4 this year just as they had last year however all of their 4 are rated lower than last year except SMU. One good thing for the AAC is two of their power teams Uconn and Memphis are out of the running this year. Should Uconn and Memphis return to the norm next year they could have 6 teams in the dance in 2016. I must admit I thought when they brought Tulsa into what was clearly a makeshift conference they were making a huge mistake. If I remember correctly only Stever was touting Tulsa as anything other than a last resort. Either he was correct or Tulsa may be a one shot wonder.

I don't think I would say they would have a chance at 6- but 4-5 normal for them seems very reasonable- especially if the A10 and MWC continue to falter. .

Steve, there is no "normal" for a conference that's only existed for 2 years. They're just building their history now.

With it's current membership, the American achieved only 3 bids last year. What Louisville did is irrelevant and there's no way that Tulsa's auto bid out of CUSA can be counted as part of what's normal for the AAC. They look like they'll get 3 bids again this year, so in the first 2 years, 3 is their emerging normal, not 4-5.

[stever20]

I am confident we will have six teams in the dance. Looking at competitors however I think we must note the A-10 has fallen from 6 last year to 2 or perhaps 3 this year whilst the ACC will have 4 this year just as they had last year however all of their 4 are rated lower than last year except SMU. One good thing for the AAC is two of their power teams Uconn and Memphis are out of the running this year. Should Uconn and Memphis return to the norm next year they could have 6 teams in the dance in 2016. I must admit I thought when they brought Tulsa into what was clearly a makeshift conference they were making a huge mistake. If I remember correctly only Stever was touting Tulsa as anything other than a last resort. Either he was correct or Tulsa may be a one shot wonder.

I don't think I would say they would have a chance at 6- but 4-5 normal for them seems very reasonable- especially if the A10 and MWC continue to falter. .

Steve, there is no "normal" for a conference that's only existed for 2 years. They're just building their history now.

With it's current membership, the American achieved only 3 bids last year. What Louisville did is irrelevant and there's no way that Tulsa's auto bid out of CUSA can be counted as part of what's normal for the AAC. They look like they'll get 3 bids again this year, so in the first 2 years, 3 is their emerging normal, not 4-5.

Last year 4 current AAC teams made the dance. You can't erase the Tulsa appearance.
This year AAC will get at least 3 if not 4 teams.
2 years ago Cincy, Memphis, and Temple made the dance and UConn would have been 50/50 on making it.
3 years ago Cincy, Memphis, Temple, and UConn all made the dance
so last 3 years- it's been 4,3,4- avg of 3.67.

A few big changes from then to now...
A10 and MWC are both no where near what they were 3-4 years ago.
The ACC is no where near as dominant in getting NCAA spots as what the Big East used to be like. I don't think you can argue this. I mean ACC this year may only get 6 teams in. Last 6 years of the old big east, Big East never got fewer than 7 teams in. 2007 was the only year of the 16-15 team config that the Big East didn't get at least 7 bids.

[Bill Marsh]

I don't think I would say they would have a chance at 6- but 4-5 normal for them seems very reasonable- especially if the A10 and MWC continue to falter. .

Steve, there is no "normal" for a conference that's only existed for 2 years. They're just building their history now.

With it's current membership, the American achieved only 3 bids last year. What Louisville did is irrelevant and there's no way that Tulsa's auto bid out of CUSA can be counted as part of what's normal for the AAC. They look like they'll get 3 bids again this year, so in the first 2 years, 3 is their emerging normal, not 4-5.

Last year 4 current AAC teams made the dance. You can't erase the Tulsa appearance.
This year AAC will get at least 3 if not 4 teams.
2 years ago Cincy, Memphis, and Temple made the dance and UConn would have been 50/50 on making it.
3 years ago Cincy, Memphis, Temple, and UConn all made the dance
so last 3 years- it's been 4,3,4- avg of 3.67.

A few big changes from then to now...
A10 and MWC are both no where near what they were 3-4 years ago.
The ACC is no where near as dominant in getting NCAA spots as what the Big East used to be like. I don't think you can argue this. I mean ACC this year may only get 6 teams in. Last 6 years of the old big east, Big East never got fewer than 7 teams in. 2007 was the only year of the 16-15 team config that the Big East didn't get at least 7 bids.

Tulsa made the tournament as the representative of the ridiculously inferior CUSA last year. It means nothing with regard to what's normal for the American. Check their RPI from last year. They weren't getting chosen at-large and they certainly weren't winning the AAC last year. I'm not erasing Tulsa's appearance. I'm simply not counting it for the AAC. I'm counting it for CUSA where it belongs.

The AAC is as likely to get 2 bids (if Cincy continues their collapse) as they are to get 4. All we can say right now is that they are headed for 3 at this point.

2015 - 3
2014 - 3 (with current membership)
2013 - didn't exist
2012 - didn't exist

Normal for 2 years = 3

[GumbyDamnit!]

I think more importantly is how the seeding for these conferences shake out moving forward. We like to think we are on par with conferences like the Big12 or ACC but they are sending 4 or 5 teams into the tourney as 5/6 seeds or better. We need to get there at some point.

The AAC conversely might get 3 in but I don't see SMU better than a 7/8 seed and Temple and Cincy right now are closer to double digit seeds than in the 6/7 range. Good conferences get multiple teams to the SW16/E8. I feel so much more confident in that happenin this year than last for the BE.

[stever20]

I think more importantly is how the seeding for these conferences shake out moving forward. We like to think we are on par with conferences like the Big12 or ACC but they are sending 4 or 5 teams into the tourney as 5/6 seeds or better. We need to get there at some point.

The AAC conversely might get 3 in but I don't see SMU better than a 7/8 seed and Temple and Cincy right now are closer to double digit seeds than in the 6/7 range. Good conferences get multiple teams to the SW16/E8. I feel so much more confident in that happenin this year than last for the BE.

I think this is huge. Nova will be a 1 or 2 easy. Butler was our 2nd best bet- but with the injury- maybe not. Georgetown and PC seem like 6 with maybe able to get up to a 5. Butler and Xavier seem ticketed to a 7 or 8. St John's maybe a 9 or 10.

SMU on the bracket Matrix looks like #24- the last 6. If they can win out they'll maintain that if not improve some. I agree with you about Temple/Cincy/Tulsa(if they make it)- but would say it's better to be a 10 or 11 than a 8 or 9.

[hoyahooligan]

Looks like Providence is poised to move into the rankings this week with Ok st losing 2x and Ohio St losing their one game this week. Providence was 3rd team out last week, but Texas the first team out also lost this week so Providence and San Diego St should move into the rankings.

[stever20]

Looks like Providence is poised to move into the rankings this week with Ok st losing 2x and Ohio St losing their one game this week. Providence was 3rd team out last week, but Texas the first team out also lost this week so Providence and San Diego St should move into the rankings.

I disagree- I think they're going to get passed up by Georgetown after what they did to St John's.

I think if we don't get another team here- it would be Michigan State who has won 4 straight. Glad their game with Illinois was late last night.