Big East Tourney Seeding Probabilities

[billyjack]

Bump.
(Trying to post a chart...)

[admin]

Hoping we'll see the 2015 odds soon?

[stever20]

Nova could be real close to clinching #1 on Tuesday night.

Nova wins Tuesday and then loses out, they are 13-5.
Butler wins Wed and then wins out, they are 13-5. Nova 2-0 vs Butler.

Georgetown wins Saturday and wins out they are 13-5. 1-1 season series. Providence would break the tie and give the tiebreak to Nova- unless St John's ties Providence with the tiebreak there, and then Georgetown would be 2-0 vs them while St John's would be 1-1 vs Georgetown.

Wins over PC and X and Nova clinches the #1 seed now.

[Bill Marsh]

Interesting hypothetical, Stever. Is that what you think will actually happen?

[stever20]

Interesting hypothetical, Stever. Is that what you think will actually happen?

no just was showing that Nova could get real close to clinching the #1 on Tuesday. I think Nova probably goes 16-2- although that Xavier game I think could be a major problem for Nova quite frankly.

[Bill Marsh]

Interesting hypothetical, Stever. Is that what you think will actually happen?

no just was showing that Nova could get real close to clinching the #1 on Tuesday. I think Nova probably goes 16-2- although that Xavier game I think could be a major problem for Nova quite frankly.

Okay. Thanks for clarifying. I'm getting better at understanding your posts. In the past, when I'd read a post like that, I'd think you were presenting the likely outcome.

I agree that playing Xavier on the road presents a major challenge for the. It is literally a game that could go either way although I too would favor Villanova in a close game.

A lot rides on Ochefu's ability to contain Stainbrook's passing. If Stainbrook can be disrupted, it disrupts the flow of the entire Xavier offense since everything runs through him.

[stever20]

just looking this week-
Nova 12-2 PC, @ Xavier
Geo 10-5 @ SJ
Pro 9-5 @ Nova, Marq
But 9-5 Marq, @ Dep
Xav 8-7 @ SJ, Nova
SJ 7-7 Xav, Geo
Dep 6-9 Cre, But
SH 5-10 Cre
Cre 3-11 @ Dep, @ SH
Marq 3-11 @ But, @ PC

Let's give Nova 2 wins, Georgetown win over St John's, PC win over Marquette, Butler 2 wins, DePaul loses to Creighton, Seton Hall loses to Creighton...
Nova 14-2
Geo 11-5
But 11-5
PC 10-6
Xav 8-8 plus SJ game
SJ 7-8 plus Xav game
Dep 6-11
Cre 5-11
SH 5-11
Mar 3-13

If St John's beats Xavier, we have top 6 teams known. Plus Xavier would be the 6 seed clinched. St John's would be 5 unless they won out(including a Nova win) and PC lost out.

Where it gets interesting is if DePaul wins both this week. Then they are 8-9 and they do have the tiebreaker on Xavier.

[gmoser1210]

If my math is correct, after today's games, the best/worst possible seeds for each team are as follows:

Villanova - 1/1
Butler - 2/4
Georgetown - 2/5
Providence - 2/5
St. John's - 3/6
Xavier - 5/7
Seton Hall - 6/9
DePaul - 7/9
Creighton - 8/10
Marquette - 9/10