Who can beat Villanova?

[mpwalsh8]

6 or 7 of the 10 teams can/could beat Villanova.

This is absolutely true, there are 6-7 teams, maybe a couple more, who CAN beat VU. The question that should have been asked is who WILL beat Villanova?

In the 'Nova pickem' pool I had 'Nova at 14-4 with losses @Seton Hall, @Georgetown, @Providence (happy to be wrong about that one) and @Creighton (TBD). At the time I thought Creighton would have a better season than they have had but they're improving and they still scare me a bit. I expect the C-Link will be primed to knock off VU. As much as I'd like to see VU finish 16-2, I expect they'll lose one more during the regular season. My guess is it will be either @X, @Creighton (huge upset), or home to a desperate SJU team who needs a win to get in the tourney.

Losing one before the BET won't be the end of the world, in fact it might provide a little late season focus much like the shellacking by Georgetown did a month ago.

[cu blujs]

I expect the C-Link will be primed to knock off VU.

Fortunately for VU, the schedulers didn't put you at CU on senior night. CU has not lost on senior night at the Clink and only once I believe in the last 20ish years. Xavier might as well stay home. However, I think the fellas will have a little something ready for Nova. Pay no attention to the fellas adjusting the height of the basket at each break.

[GumbyDamnit!]

It's college hoops and Duke once lost to Lehigh in the tourney. So anything can happen. The team I think best suited to beat Nova in the BET is Gtwn. The length and ability to be physical could disrupt Nova as it did in DC. If the refs let 'em play than I think Gtwn has a really good chance.

Nova is the only undefeated team at home and on a neutral floor. I don't think they've won by less than double digits yet at home in conf. And please give us SHU again. Nova just beat them by 30 and with the Gibbs crap the team is probably still pissed off at them.

[Bigfishy]

Seton Hall can beat Nova is Villanova misses 15 foul shots again. Only reason 1st game went into OT. Now GT is a different story.

[xavierfano8]

I expect the C-Link will be primed to knock off VU.

Fortunately for VU, the schedulers didn't put you at CU on senior night. CU has not lost on senior night at the Clink and only once I believe in the last 20ish years. Xavier might as well stay home. However, I think the fellas will have a little something ready for Nova. Pay no attention to the fellas adjusting the height of the basket at each break.

Xavier will show up they owe Creighton one. I will say I'm not looking forward to that one though.

If X can win at UC though they can win a lot of places. Doesn't get more hostile than it was Wednesday night.

[chopper]

I think a team that can beat Nova physically has the best chance. No offense to Seton Hall, but that loss in early January was very much on Nova not really being focused. They shot an abysimal 57% from the stripe and 20% from 3. If it was just a bad shooting night from deep, that would be understandable...but the FT% really screams mental breakdown.

Georgetown on the other hand just played harder that first game, on top of shooting lights out. They got their hands on every rebound and loose ball and slapped the you know what out of the ball whenever Nova took it into the paint. However, since that GTown loss, Nova has been incredibly dialed in. If that level of focus continues into March, I'm not sure anyone can beat them.

[MackNova]

Nova is the best team in the league, and there's a pretty solid drop-off after Nova (ESPN BPI would have Nova as a 5.5 point favorite or more over everyone in the conference on a neutral floor). But if you can frustrate Ochefu, be able to successfully dribble penetrate and score off it, and hope Nova has an off night shooting, you can beat Nova. A handful of teams in this league can do it. But it's a lot easier said than done.

[Bill Marsh]

Guys, thanks for all the different opinions. This will help a lot in picking my tournament brackets.

I don't know about all of you,but when I pick teams in the office pool,I tend to focus on little things like TOs and FT% - things that can make a difference in close games. I look at these especially for the NCAA tournament with teams that I don't know very well at all.

IN that vein, I'm beginning to wonder if there are teams that are built for the regular season where anyone can afford to win a few games, but there are other teams better built for a single elimination tournament.

One of the factors that I'm starting to look at more closely is 2-point shooting because there's a greater chance that even a good 3-point shooting team can have an off night than a team that relies less heavily on 3's. One off night and a team is done in a single elimination tournament. Last year's Creighton team would be an exception because they were a 3-point shooting team that never seemed to have an off-night

So, while acknowledging that there are exceptions, I'm soliciting opinions on using the degree of reliance on 2-point shooting in predicting tournament results. At the same time, I'm looking for suggestions for anything else that anyone has found that works.

Here are some things that haven't worked for me:

1. Playing the hot hand - I've actually been surprised at how teams seem to revert to their overall caliber of play that they've shown season long. Too many times when I've picked against teams who were struggling late in the season have I been punished with my pick being wrong. Too many times have I seen long winning streaks broken in the first weekend of the tournament.

2. Picking the quirky team - I've picked teams with an unorthodox style of play on the theory that in the national tournament, a quirky team would have an advantage against teams who were unfamiliar with their style of play. Wrong. I had expected zone teams like Syracuse and Temple with their match-up zone to overachieve in the tournament. What I found was just the opposite. Far too often I was disappointed by those teams underachieving.

A Lenny for your thoughts. Thanks in advance for posting.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Look for the teams that are Top 25-30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. There are going to be nights where the shots don't fall and you need to buckle down and win ugly and nights when you need to win a game in the high 70's or 80's. UCONN last yr was the exception but most teams that advance can present problems on both sides of the floor.

[gavitspeaks]

6 or 7 of the 10 teams can/could beat Villanova.

This is absolutely true, there are 6-7 teams, maybe a couple more, who CAN beat VU. The question that should have been asked is who WILL beat Villanova?


Losing one before the BET won't be the end of the world, in fact it might provide a little late season focus much like the shellacking by Georgetown did a month ago.

There is not one of the other 9 teams that could beat Villanova on a consistent basis. Once? Maybe They'd have to rely on Villanova shooting miserably to have a chance. VU is in a class of its own.