RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[stever20]

But Forecast told you that FL would win those games but THEY DIDN'T. And Cincy certainly was supposed to beat Tulane. My point has always been Stever that you get so caught up in what's going to happen instead of just recognizing who deserves to be in at a point in time. At this point in time it is my opinion that SJU and X deserve to be in and UCONN, FL and Tulsa don't. You keep holding out hope that those other 3 will go on runs and SJU and X will falter. From what I'm seeing I don't think either will happen.

no the forecast said that Florida had a good shot to go 7-1. The 2 games they lost here were 50/50 type games. If they go 5-3 here with 2 1 point losses, that's not a bad thing on RPI forecast at all. Similarly RPI forecast was a whole hell of a lot more accurate than you with Seton Hall- they could see that Seton Hall was going to struggle and sure enough they did.

The problem with your logic is just the season doesn't end today. St John's and Xavier have tough schedules left. St John's has 84-45 left. Xavier has 72-33 left. So when looking at them, you give them credit absolutely for being where they are right now, but also have got to mention they have a tough road to maintain that position. You can't just be a fan and say well they are great now so they are safe. Just look at St John's last year. They were 18-9 with 4 games to go. Then they had a 2 game stretch with Nova and Xavier, and poof, they were behind the 8 ball and then couldn't win in the BET to make the tourney. You would have said that St John's is a lock when they were 18-9 based on what they had done up to that point. ESPN has a great term for teams like Xavier and St John's this year. Work left to do. And that absolutely describes to a T the situation that those 2 are in this year.

[Bill Marsh]

But Forecast told you that FL would win those games but THEY DIDN'T. And Cincy certainly was supposed to beat Tulane. My point has always been Stever that you get so caught up in what's going to happen instead of just recognizing who deserves to be in at a point in time. At this point in time it is my opinion that SJU and X deserve to be in and UCONN, FL and Tulsa don't. You keep holding out hope that those other 3 will go on runs and SJU and X will falter. From what I'm seeing I don't think either will happen.

Actually Gumby, RPI Forecast didn't say that Florida would win those 2 games. Steve did.

RPI forecast simply plays the odds. They don't pick games. They look at the Sagarin projections for the games and then assign a percent to a teams chances of winning. For example, if a team is favored in back-to-back games by 1 point, they will say that the team has a 49% chance of winning each game - or some similar percent. When they do their projections, they then say that statistically the odds are that a team in 2 games that are essentially 50/50 will split those 2 games. They don't say which one. Similarly, if a team's odds are 75% in 4 straight games, they will project a 3-1 record in those 4 games because the odds are that they will lose 1/4 even though they are a heavy favorite in each game.

We certainly know that teams can go on runs in which they win every close game or lose every close game. That's why we watch the games. But that's the exception. The norm is that you win some and lose some.

When Steve comes up with his hypotheticals and says "I could easily see Team X doing the following", he's doing exactly the opposite of what RPI Forecast is doing. He's contriving a situation to make a certain point. He's taking one possibility out of a range of possibilities. RPI Forecast is including the full range of possibilities when they make their projections.

Despite the name of the metric, RPI Forecast is not in the business of predicting anything. The creator of the site recognizes the deficiencies of RPI but he also understands that it's the too that gets the most attention since it was specifically created by the NCAA for use by its committee. He has tried to create a tool in "RPI terms" that will utilize the benefits of more sophisticated power rating systems to show a teams strength right now - not in the future. He projects the schedule because RPI is at it's strongest over a full schedule and at its weakest when fewer games have been played. It also provides the best comparison of how teams look to be shaping up for the tournament, but based on the quality that they've demonstrated to date in the schedule.

The major weakness of RPI Is that a win is a win and a loss is a loss. No powerRating system takes that approach. The NCAA wanted such a metric because they didn't want to give teams an incentive to run up the score. But the fact is that a 1 point win is not the same as a 20 point win and the same for close losses vs blow outs. Power ratings calculate in margin of victory. By using Sagarin to project future results, RPI Forecast developed a creative way to marry a powerRating system with RPI to make the (projected) RPI a more valid measure of a team's performance.

The point of RPI Forecast once again is to measure each team's performance to date. As with any other piece of information, fans can use it however they want to predict future results, but that's not what RPI Forecast itself is doing. They don't predict any individual game results at all.

[GumbyDamnit!]

When Steve comes up with his hypotheticals and says "I could easily see Team X doing the following", he's doing exactly the opposite of what RPI Forecast is doing. He's contriving a situation to make a certain point. He's taking one possibility out of a range of possibilities. RPI Forecast is including the full range of possibilities when they make their projections.

The point of RPI Forecast once again is to measure each team's performance to date. As with any other piece of information, fans can use it however they want to predict future results, but that's not what RPI Forecast itself is doing. They don't predict any individual game results at all.

OK I can accept that explanation and use more than anything I've seen relating to this topic. Good explanation--thanks.

I guess where I have the problem is that every year everyone (cough, cough...mostly Stever actually) prognosticates about who is going to make the tourney and who isn't. A team inevitably is going to rise to the occasion and earn their spot or not. X and SJU clearly have work to do as do the other 25 bubble teams. Why not just leave it at that? For as tough as X's schedule seemed to be on Monday, by Wed. evening they beat another Top 50 team on the road which strengthened their RPI and resume' considerably. They have two games at home vs. Top 20 RPI teams left on their schedule. They could lose both, win one and absolutely seal a bid or win both and become a 7 or 8 seed. Why bother trying to predict what is going to happen and just let it happen and then comment on whether or not they are worthy then? SJU certainly has the talent to knock off Nova away. We may spend 7 days debating whether SJU WILL HAVE done enough to get a bid when we can just take it a day / game at a time and say: "yes, as of today, they've done enough to warrant a bid." When there are 25 teams on the bubble, attempting to micro-manage the future results of all of those games just seems preposterous to me.

If you are a fan of the RPI forecast sites, and you think it provides an interesting insight, then far be it from me to try to dissuade you from checking it out. I do think you personally probably use it in the way that it is intended, and not as some crystal ball as to what is definitively going to happen. Stever clearly manipulates the data to suit his opinion of what he believes or wants to happen. That approach bugs the crap out of me, and deserves to be called on the carpet. I will admit that what I do find mildly amusing is watching Stevers projections go up in smoke and watch teams that he predicted to make a push for the tourney fall flat on their faces.

Why do I advocate so hard for X and SJU in this debate? They are our BE brothers and although we can occasionally fight internally, when someone outside the family (Stever) want to fight, I'll be the first to have their backs. Go Big East!

[stever20]

But Forecast told you that FL would win those games but THEY DIDN'T. And Cincy certainly was supposed to beat Tulane. My point has always been Stever that you get so caught up in what's going to happen instead of just recognizing who deserves to be in at a point in time. At this point in time it is my opinion that SJU and X deserve to be in and UCONN, FL and Tulsa don't. You keep holding out hope that those other 3 will go on runs and SJU and X will falter. From what I'm seeing I don't think either will happen.

Actually Gumby, RPI Forecast didn't say that Florida would win those 2 games. Steve did.

RPI forecast simply plays the odds. They don't pick games. They look at the Sagarin projections for the games and then assign a percent to a teams chances of winning. For example, if a team is favored in back-to-back games by 1 point, they will say that the team has a 49% chance of winning each game - or some similar percent. When they do their projections, they then say that statistically the odds are that a team in 2 games that are essentially 50/50 will split those 2 games. They don't say which one. Similarly, if a team's odds are 75% in 4 straight games, they will project a 3-1 record in those 4 games because the odds are that they will lose 1/4 even though they are a heavy favorite in each game.

We certainly know that teams can go on runs in which they win every close game or lose every close game. That's why we watch the games. But that's the exception. The norm is that you win some and lose some.

When Steve comes up with his hypotheticals and says "I could easily see Team X doing the following", he's doing exactly the opposite of what RPI Forecast is doing. He's contriving a situation to make a certain point. He's taking one possibility out of a range of possibilities. RPI Forecast is including the full range of possibilities when they make their projections.

Despite the name of the metric, RPI Forecast is not in the business of predicting anything. The creator of the site recognizes the deficiencies of RPI but he also understands that it's the too that gets the most attention since it was specifically created by the NCAA for use by its committee. He has tried to create a tool in "RPI terms" that will utilize the benefits of more sophisticated power rating systems to show a teams strength right now - not in the future. He projects the schedule because RPI is at it's strongest over a full schedule and at its weakest when fewer games have been played. It also provides the best comparison of how teams look to be shaping up for the tournament, but based on the quality that they've demonstrated to date in the schedule.

The major weakness of RPI Is that a win is a win and a loss is a loss. No powerRating system takes that approach. The NCAA wanted such a metric because they didn't want to give teams an incentive to run up the score. But the fact is that a 1 point win is not the same as a 20 point win and the same for close losses vs blow outs. Power ratings calculate in margin of victory. By using Sagarin to project future results, RPI Forecast developed a creative way to marry a powerRating system with RPI to make the (projected) RPI a more valid measure of a team's performance.

The point of RPI Forecast once again is to measure each team's performance to date. As with any other piece of information, fans can use it however they want to predict future results, but that's not what RPI Forecast itself is doing. They don't predict any individual game results at all.

If RPI forecast has a team with 4 games of 70% or more, and then 3 others at 50%, to say that they could go 7-1 isn't that outrageous at all. It wouldn't take all that much to do that. It was definitely within the realm of possibility. It wasn't crazy at all to say 7-1 was possible, and the fact that if they could get to 7-1, they would be golden for the tourney.

About RPI forecast, it does measure current strength, but in focus of what the future schedule looks like. If a generic team is about 90th in the ratings right now, but their upcoming schedule is brutal, it's going to show the impact of them losing most of those upcoming games. Look at DePaul. #146 right now in the RPI. But a very tough schedule with 1 game possible to win at 55%, but 3 games where the projected number is 9,20,28%. Their RPI projection is then 162 because they probably will lose all those games, and it would impact the RPI obviously negatively.

The other thing the RPI forecast does is show what the expected RPI would look like if they did certain records- and the chance that happens.
Like look at Creighton...
if they lose out, 166.3- 23% chance of that happening
if they go 1-3, 147.3, 43.61% chance of that happening
if they go 2-2, 128.2, 26.52% chance of that happening
if they go 3-1, 111, 6.05% chance of that happening
if they go 4-0, 96.4, 0.57% chance of that happening.

[stever20]

the thing that is also amazing is Xavier fans on here have said themselves they are very nervous at 18-14. But you don't want to acknowledge that at all...

[Bill Marsh]

Well said. Couldn't agree with you more on all points, Gumby.

[GumbyDamnit!]

the thing that is also amazing is Xavier fans on here have said themselves they are very nervous at 18-14. But you don't want to acknowledge that at all...

Of course they are going to say that. They badly want their team to be in the tourney but are nervous because they still had work to do. Many if our XU brethren thought they were going to lose at Cincy considering that hostile environment. So what? An observer from the outside (like me) predicted that X is clearly worthy of a bid and they are proving it on the court. Now that Butler lost to X I guess they are now a double digit seed in your eyes?

[stever20]

the thing that is also amazing is Xavier fans on here have said themselves they are very nervous at 18-14. But you don't want to acknowledge that at all...

Of course they are going to say that. They badly want their team to be in the tourney but are nervous because they still had work to do. Many if our XU brethren thought they were going to lose at Cincy considering that hostile environment. So what? An observer from the outside (like me) predicted that X is clearly worthy of a bid and they are proving it on the court. Now that Butler lost to X I guess they are now a double digit seed in your eyes?

no, but they could easily fall into that dreaded 8/9 line. Definitely better beat both Creighton/Marquette.

The thing is Xavier fans knew that if they had gone 18-14, they would have been in deep trouble. I don't see what is so darn earth shattering news about that. Xavier fans knew they had a real tough schedule and that it was a very real possibility they could be 18-14 and they would be precarious at best. But you and especially Marsh were like they're a lock. Like Joe Lunardi said- a lock is when you can lose all your games and still make the tourney. Xavier wasn't a lock then, and isn't a lock today. Xavier should only need 1 win- but I think they probably moreso need 2 wins if the 1st win isn't vs Creighton.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever, it doesn't matter what should have happened or could have happened but what actually happened. XU beat Cincy and Butler so they are in great shape. Who cares about what you expected to happen two games ago. They won't end up 18-14 so why bother trying to still harp on it? It was a good day for the BE and stop it with BU dropping to 8/9. Cherbacz is hurt and he'll be back and the committee knows that.

[stever20]

Stever, it doesn't matter what should have happened or could have happened but what actually happened. XU beat Cincy and Butler so they are in great shape. Who cares about what you expected to happen two games ago. They won't end up 18-14 so why bother trying to still harp on it? It was a good day for the BE and stop it with BU dropping to 8/9. Cherbacz is hurt and he'll be back and the committee knows that.

Butler could easily drop a few lines. They were the next to last 5 going into today. The committee can't assume they would have won if he had played. Probably will see them down at the 6 line next release. They will have to beat either Georgetown or Providence to keep that seed.