Bubble Watch

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

there is such a glut of teams right near there in the 40-51 range

40 Boise .5810
41 Georgia .5808
42 St John's .5807
43 Illinois .5804
44 UCLA .5799
45 Iona .5786
46 Cincy .5773
47 Green Bay .5772
48 NC St .5768
49 Tulsa .5764
50 Pitt .5758
51 Stanford .5762

I'm saying if I was picking teams for the tournament today, I would put St. John's in the tournament and the rest would be out.

You will have difficulty filling all 68 boxes.

[R Jay]

Bracket Matrix has Georgia, St. John's, Illinois, UCLA, Iona (auto-bid), Cincy, NC St., and Stanford in.
Six Big East Teams in total.

[stever20]

Bracket Matrix has Georgia, St. John's, Illinois, UCLA, Iona (auto-bid), Cincy, NC St., and Stanford in.
Six Big East Teams in total.

that can change pretty quickly. very fluid situation quite frankly.

[Bill Marsh]

What would you do with St. John's after you take them off the list?

Are you saying they're solid and 1-2 games won't matter?

I'm saying if I was picking teams for the tournament today. I would put St. John's in the tournament and the rest would be out.

You understand that most of those teams on that list would be in right now.

St John's absolutely is on the bubble. Pretty much have to win at least 3 of 4 to have a chance before the final nova game.

What they do in the BE tournament where they could definitely win some games doesn't matter?

[hoyahooligan]

You understand that most of those teams on that list would be in right now.

St John's absolutely is on the bubble. Pretty much have to win at least 3 of 4 to have a chance before the final nova game.

I do. Maybe you should wait for me to finish editing my post before you respond.

Obviously it doesn't matter because you have to put 68 teams in the tournament but based on the subjective measure of what does a tournament team look like, I don't think most of those teams past the eye test.

Frankly we could go back to 32 teams based on the crap that's going to get into the tournament this year. I'm not impressed by any SEC teams outside of Kentucky. Yet teams like Ole Miss, Texas AM, and Georgia all have good RPI. Yet look at Texas AM. 0 wins over top 50 teams yet an RPI of 35.

UCLA has 1 top 50 win. Again the P12 sucks I wouldn't take anyone besides Arizona and Utah.

[stever20]

the thing folks want to do is make it seem like it's an either or with the AAC making the tourney...
just look at this-
B12- 7 teams in top 50 right now- so 6 at large
BE- 6 teams in top 50 right now- so 5 at large
ACC- 7 teams in top 50 right now- so 6 at large
B10- 6 teams in top 50 right now- so 5 at large
P12- 3 teams in top 50 right now- so 2 at large
SEC- 5 teams in top 50 right now- so 4 at large
Right there are only 28 at larges out of the 36.
outside of that-
MVC has 1 for sure (Wichita/Northern Iowa)
A10- 3 teams in top 50 right now- so 2 at large
MWC- 3 teams in top 50 right now- so 2 at large

that gets up to 33 teams right there. AAC has 4 in the top 50 so 3 at large for the full 36...

And here's the thing- just outside the top 50 RPI-
51 Stanford
52 Harvard
53 Old Dominion
54 LSU
55 Davidson
56 Buffalo
57 St Mary's
58 Oregon
59 BYU
60 Iowa

not all that much out there. Which bodes well for us as well if St John's and Xavier can just do enough record wise.

[GumbyDamnit!]

St John's absolutely is on the bubble. Pretty much have to win at least 3 of 4 to have a chance before the final nova game.

In an earlier post you said that SJU's and X's magic number is 19. In fact I believe you used the phrase "no doubt in the world they'd be in at 19 wins," and still have a good shot at the tourney at 18. So the way I see it, X needs to win 2 of their next 5 and SJU needs to win 3 of their next 6 according to the First (Bracketology) Book of Stever.

Neither have any chance of facing a bottom rung team in the BET so they won't have a "bad" loss either way to end their season. Would a first round loss to PC or Gtwn (both RPI top 25) keep them from the tourney? I highly doubt that.

What is amazing about SJU is the following: They will probably end the season with at least 11 games vs the RPI Top 25, and only 6 games vs. RPI 150+ (0 losses).

Other teams we've discussed:
Tulsa - 4 vs. 1-25 & 14 vs. 150+ (w/ 1 loss)
Cincy - 4 / 11 (w/ 2 losses)
SMU - 2 / 12
Dayton - 1 / 11
Temple - 5 / 11 (1 loss)
Xavier - 8 /4

So when you are looking at Cincy and Temple and Tulsa and suggesting that 21 wins is their magic #, and then asking SJU and X to get to 19, don't you feel just a tad dirty afterwards? SJU will have 7 more games vs Top 25 than Tulsa (and we're talking Nova x 2, Gonzaga, Duke who are top 5 RPI teams vs. SMU x 2, Oklahoma and Wich St.--all borderline top 25 teams). And then you see that Tulsa will end up having 8 more games than SJU vs. the RPI 150+.

Someone/anyone please explain to me how looking at overall total wins is a fair metric in deciding a bubble team ?

[stever20]

St John's absolutely is on the bubble. Pretty much have to win at least 3 of 4 to have a chance before the final nova game.

In an earlier post you said that SJU's and X's magic number is 19. In fact I believe you used the phrase "no doubt in the world they'd be in at 19 wins," and still have a good shot at the tourney at 18. So the way I see it, X needs to win 2 of their next 5 and SJU needs to win 3 of their next 6 according to the First (Bracketology) Book of Stever.

Neither have any chance of facing a bottom rung team in the BET so they won't have a "bad" loss either way to end their season. Would a first round loss to PC or Gtwn (both RPI top 25) keep them from the tourney? I highly doubt that.

What is amazing about SJU is the following: They will probably end the season with at least 11 games vs the RPI Top 25, and only 6 games vs. RPI 150+ (0 losses).

Other teams we've discussed:
Tulsa - 4 vs. 1-25 & 14 vs. 150+ (w/ 1 loss)
Cincy - 4 / 11 (w/ 2 losses)
SMU - 2 / 12
Dayton - 1 / 11
Temple - 5 / 11 (1 loss)
Xavier - 8 /4

So when you are looking at Cincy and Temple and Tulsa and suggesting that 21 wins is their magic #, and then asking SJU and X to get to 19, don't you feel just a tad dirty afterwards? SJU will have 7 more games vs Top 25 than Tulsa (and we're talking Nova x 2, Gonzaga, Duke who are top 5 RPI teams vs. SMU x 2, Oklahoma and Wich St.--all borderline top 25 teams). And then you see that Tulsa will end up having 8 more games than SJU vs. the RPI 150+.

Someone/anyone please explain to me how looking at overall total wins is a fair metric in deciding a bubble team ?

I said for X that their magic number is 19. Absolutely. St John's most likely is 19 as well.

Is it right that X or SJ could be left out with 18 wins, while a team like a Cincy or Tulsa would be in with 21-22 wins? Probably not. But, the committees of the recent past have shown they are willing to do just that. It's not fair, but it is what it is. We can debate all day long is it right, but the fact is, that's how the committee has changed the last 10-15 years. 15 years ago, X would be a lock right now, and SJ would be close to a lock. I think you are arguing against the system more than anything else. I'm sorry but we just do not see 18-13 or 18-14 teams making the tournament much any more.

[Edrick]

Someone/anyone please explain to me how looking at overall total wins is a fair metric in deciding a bubble team ?

It's not. And isn't There is no such thing as a magic win total. What will get you in in always relative to what everyone else is doing. Someone like St Johns gets a huge boost coming from the #2 conference because not only does it afford it more opportunities to impress; but also, less opportunities to do the opposite.

[stever20]

Someone/anyone please explain to me how looking at overall total wins is a fair metric in deciding a bubble team ?

It's not. And isn't

It absolutely is a metric. I mean last year, Georgetown was one of the top 36 at large teams quite frankly, but because we were 17-14, we didn't make it. If we were 18-13, we absolutely would have made it. Florida St was 19-13 with the #12 SOS. They didn't make it.