Bubble Watch

[stever20]

All of this talk about Xavier. Who cares about it?

Many or most BE fans, and a number of A10 fans who also follow the BE.

Xavier is in a very interesting situation with regard to the 2015 Bubble Watch – the topic of this thread.

Let's talk something legitimate like Villanova.

Villanova is a lock for the 2015 Tournament field, and therefore, off-topic on a 'Bubble Watch' thread.

Cincy game will be huge for X. The good news for them is that every game remaining for Xavier except @Creighton will be against a top-50 opponent, so any win they get will be a quality one. The bad news is that it will be hard for them to get wins. A road win vs. Creighton is pretty much a requirement IMO for X, getting them 17 wins.

Then that leaves them with finding two more wins from Cincy, Butler, Nova and St. John's, and their BET opening round opponent (currently Georgetown).

great post. 18-14 they have a shot - not a great one.

19-13 is close to a lock to me (only way it's not is if they got to 19-12 - but finish 8-10 in conference, and then lose to Creighton/Marquette in 1st round- adding another bad loss).

If I were a Xavier fan, I would not feel confident of an at-large invitation with less than 20 regular-season wins and at least one BET win. Here’s why:

At the end of the last regular season, the 2013-14 Xavier Musketeers had a record of 20-11 (10-8) before going 1-1 in the BET.

On Selection Sunday in March 2014, the Musketeers had a record of 21-12 and an RPI Ranking of # 47. These credentials got Xavier a # 12 seed and a play-in game at UD Arena, which they lost.

The 2013-14 Musketeers were 14-2 at home, 4-6 on the road, and 2-5 in ‘neutral court’ games.

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The 2014-15 Xavier Musketeers currently have a record of 16-10 (7-7) and an RPI Ranking of # 41. Xavier is now 12-2 at home, 3-6 on the road, and 1-2 in ‘neutral court’ games.

Tonight’s game is huge for the Musketeers. If they lose, they will pick up an 11th loss (with four tough conference games ahead), and drop to 3-7 in road games – considerably worse than last year’s team which received the final ‘at-large’ invitation to the Tournament.

Adding to the importance of tonight’s game is the fact that Xavier’s best OOC win this season is a home win over RPI # 68 Alabama. A road win over the RPI # 34 Bearcats would be a considerable boost to Xavier’s résumé.

Actually last year they were 20-12. The game against Abilene Christian didn't count since they were not a D1 counting school last year. Also- X wasn't the last at large last year, NC State was.

The reason I think 19 gets Xavier in is the fact the Big East is so much better in 2014-15 than it was in 2013-14. Team rankings had it at about 75% which seems pretty fair. Not a lock, but pretty confidant of them getting in.

I would say if they lose tonight, they would be 4-9 away from Cintas. That's a bit worse than last year when they went 6-11 away from Cintas, but I wouldn't call it considerably worse than last year.

I'd say it's insane to say that Xavier wouldn't get in if they either won 20 regular season games(and 0 BET games) or won 19 regular season games(and a BET game). If they won 20 games, they are a lock period.
from team rankings:
18 wins- 33.1% chance of getting in
19 wins- 73.5% chance of getting in
20 wins- 93.7% chance of getting in

To me, even the 19 and 20 wins seem a smidge low TBH.

[Hall2012]

All of this talk about Xavier. Who cares about it?

Many or most BE fans, and a number of A10 fans who also follow the BE.

Xavier is in a very interesting situation with regard to the 2015 Bubble Watch – the topic of this thread.

Let's talk something legitimate like Villanova.

Villanova is a lock for the 2015 Tournament field, and therefore, off-topic on a 'Bubble Watch' thread.

Cincy game will be huge for X. The good news for them is that every game remaining for Xavier except @Creighton will be against a top-50 opponent, so any win they get will be a quality one. The bad news is that it will be hard for them to get wins. A road win vs. Creighton is pretty much a requirement IMO for X, getting them 17 wins.

Then that leaves them with finding two more wins from Cincy, Butler, Nova and St. John's, and their BET opening round opponent (currently Georgetown).

great post. 18-14 they have a shot - not a great one.

19-13 is close to a lock to me (only way it's not is if they got to 19-12 - but finish 8-10 in conference, and then lose to Creighton/Marquette in 1st round- adding another bad loss).

If I were a Xavier fan, I would not feel confident of an at-large invitation with less than 20 regular-season wins and at least one BET win. Here’s why:

At the end of the last regular season, the 2013-14 Xavier Musketeers had a record of 20-11 (10-8) before going 1-1 in the BET.

On Selection Sunday in March 2014, the Musketeers had a record of 21-12 and an RPI Ranking of # 47. These credentials got Xavier a # 12 seed and a play-in game at UD Arena, which they lost.

The 2013-14 Musketeers were 14-2 at home, 4-6 on the road, and 2-5 in ‘neutral court’ games.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 2014-15 Xavier Musketeers currently have a record of 16-10 (7-7) and an RPI Ranking of # 41. Xavier is now 12-2 at home, 3-6 on the road, and 1-2 in ‘neutral court’ games.

Tonight’s game is huge for the Musketeers. If they lose, they will pick up an 11th loss (with four tough conference games ahead), and drop to 3-7 in road games – considerably worse than last year’s team which received the final ‘at-large’ invitation to the Tournament.

Adding to the importance of tonight’s game is the fact that Xavier’s best OOC win this season is a home win over RPI # 68 Alabama. A road win over the RPI # 34 Bearcats would be a considerable boost to Xavier’s résumé.

The huge difference, however, is the Conference SOS. 20 wins in the RPI #2 conference means a lot more than 20 wins in the RPI #4 (and a distant #4 at that) conference. More than half of Xavier's games conference games this season (10 of 18) are against teams that (as of today) are NCAA at large worthy teams. Last year, they only had 4 conference games against NCAA at-large teams (Providence was no lock if they didn't win the BET). A somewhat weak OOC can easily be overcome when you perform well in a conference that strong.

[Jet915]

Xaviers rpi is now 32, Cincy is 47 and stever is somewhere crying.....haha.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Xaviers rpi is now 32, Cincy is 47 and stever is somewhere crying.....haha.

So true Jet. So true. He'll spin it somehow.

[stever20]

Huge win for Xavier. Now just need to beat either Butler or St John's and then Creighton and they are lock city to me...

Cincy's RPI just looked and it's 46 not 47. They should be safe still with wins over Houston, UCF, Tulane, and Memphis. That would get them to 21-10.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I find it very difficult for a Cincy fan to think that they would be safe on Selection Sunday should they find themselves sitting on the bubble with XU.

I don't care to project what's going to happen--I'll let you continue to do that Stever. I just know that as of today both SJU and X are projected to be in the tourney. UCONN is no where close; same with FL; Tulsa and Cincy are both in the mid to high 40's and could be in some trouble if they continue to play as pedestrian that I believe both to be.

[stever20]

The loser of the St John's/Xavier game will have some work to do....
If it's St John's, they would need to beat to get to 19 d1 wins all of Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Marquette- or if they lose 1 of those, make the SF in the BET.
If it's Xavier, they would have to beat Butler or Nova- or make the SF in the BET.

Cincy has a lot going for them outside of the RPI. They have good OOC wins vs NC State and San Diego St. They have a sweep of SMU and a split with Temple. If they can just avoid a bad loss the rest of the way, they are going to be tough to leave out.

[Bill Marsh]

Huge win for Xavier. Now just need to beat either Butler or St John's and then Creighton and they are lock city to me...

Cincy's RPI just looked and it's 46 not 47. They should be safe still with wins over Houston, UCF, Tulane, and Memphis. That would get them to 21-10.

So what you're saying is that if they don't beat Memphis, they're in trouble. Yep, that about sums it up.

[stever20]

I find it very difficult for a Cincy fan to think that they would be safe on Selection Sunday should they find themselves sitting on the bubble with XU.

I don't care to project what's going to happen--I'll let you continue to do that Stever. I just know that as of today both SJU and X are projected to be in the tourney. UCONN is no where close; same with FL; Tulsa and Cincy are both in the mid to high 40's and could be in some trouble if they continue to play as pedestrian that I believe both to be.

Also, head to head isn't the only thing that would be in play. If Xavier is 18-14, to a lot of the committee I think, that's an automatic DQ.

[stever20]

Huge win for Xavier. Now just need to beat either Butler or St John's and then Creighton and they are lock city to me...

Cincy's RPI just looked and it's 46 not 47. They should be safe still with wins over Houston, UCF, Tulane, and Memphis. That would get them to 21-10.

So what you're saying is that if they don't beat Memphis, they're in trouble. Yep, that about sums it up

right but that game is at Cincy. They're looking like finishing at 12-6 at least, if not 13-5. Probably a 3 or 4 seed- meaning they won't see a dreg in the QF almost certainly.