Bubble Watch

[stever20]

What's so funny is I've said nothing about Xavier's RPI at all... My thing on them is a combo of a bad record, a bad road/neutral record, and also 3-4 bad losses.

Just because teams lose doesn't mean they were in better shape than St John's. And, it's not like UConn is done, or St John's is in. St John's still needs to get 3 more wins- if not, the win on Saturday was meaningless. Same exact thing happened last year with St John's.

And I'm sorry but Xavier is squarely on the bubble. Games have to play out. But to look at here with guys like you and Marsh- you would make it out like they are already absolute locks- when that is so far from the truth from a historic perspective.

And folks spend way too much time worrying can we get 6 teams in. What matters far more is getting Nova, Butler, Georgetown, and PC the better seeds. As I showed earlier today- there is a MASSIVE difference between a 4-6 seed and a 7 or 8 seed. So like a game like tomorrow- Georgetown plays St John's. It's far more important that Georgetown wins than to help St John's get a win to solidify their tourney spot. Same on Saturday Butler/Xavier. If St John's and Xavier can get in w/o beating those top 4 teams- great awesome.
I look at Xavier. They still have left 3 with Butler, St John's, and Nova. So they have a road to the spot with Cincy, Creighton, and St John's.
St John's- they have left Georgetown 2x, and Nova. They have a road to the spot with Seton Hall, Xavier, and Marquette(needing all 3)

if you stuck a gun to my head- 2 options- 1 4 top 5 seeded teams or 2 Nova as a 2, PC as a 5, then Georgetown/Butler as 7/8's- then St john's and Xavier in the PIG or a 11 seed- I'd take the 1st option every single time.

[DudeAnon]

If only there was a committee that made these decisions...

[gavitspeaks]

What's so funny is I've said nothing about Xavier's RPI at all... My thing on them is a combo of a bad record, a bad road/neutral record, and also 3-4 bad losses.

Just because teams lose doesn't mean they were in better shape than St John's. And, it's not like UConn is done, or St John's is in. St John's still needs to get 3 more wins- if not, the win on Saturday was meaningless. Same exact thing happened last year with St John's.

And I'm sorry but Xavier is squarely on the bubble. Games have to play out. But to look at here with guys like you and Marsh- you would make it out like they are already absolute locks- when that is so far from the truth from a historic perspective.

And folks spend way too much time worrying can we get 6 teams in. What matters far more is getting Nova, Butler, Georgetown, and PC the better seeds. As I showed earlier today- there is a MASSIVE difference between a 4-6 seed and a 7 or 8 seed. So like a game like tomorrow- Georgetown plays St John's. It's far more important that Georgetown wins than to help St John's get a win to solidify their tourney spot. Same on Saturday Butler/Xavier. If St John's and Xavier can get in w/o beating those top 4 teams- great awesome.
I look at Xavier. They still have left 3 with Butler, St John's, and Nova. So they have a road to the spot with Cincy, Creighton, and St John's.
St John's- they have left Georgetown 2x, and Nova. They have a road to the spot with Seton Hall, Xavier, and Marquette(needing all 3)

if you stuck a gun to my head- 2 options- 1 4 top 5 seeded teams or 2 Nova as a 2, PC as a 5, then Georgetown/Butler as 7/8's- then St john's and Xavier in the PIG or a 11 seed- I'd take the 1st option every single time.

All of this talk about Xavier. Who cares about it? They will play their way in or out just like everyone else. Let's talk something legitimate like Villanova. That is a well coached, fun to watch basketball team. Would love to see them with a #1 seed and a long run. Nova can carry the BE torch this season.

[gofriars08]

Cincy game will be huge for X. The good news for them is that every game remaining for Xavier except @Creighton will be against a top-50 opponent, so any win they get will be a quality one. The bad news is that it will be hard for them to get wins. A road win vs. Creighton is pretty much a requirement IMO for X, getting them 17 wins. Then that leaves them with finding two more wins from Cincy, Butler, Nova and St. John's, and their BET opening round opponent (currently Georgetown). Will not be easy to get two wins out of that 5-game stretch but certainly achievable, and if they can't find a way to 19 wins I can't see why anyone would be upset about them missing the tourney.

[stever20]

Cincy game will be huge for X. The good news for them is that every game remaining for Xavier except @Creighton will be against a top-50 opponent, so any win they get will be a quality one. The bad news is that it will be hard for them to get wins. A road win vs. Creighton is pretty much a requirement IMO for X, getting them 17 wins. Then that leaves them with finding two more wins from Cincy, Butler, Nova and St. John's, and their BET opening round opponent (currently Georgetown). Will not be easy to get two wins out of that 5-game stretch but certainly achievable, and if they can't find a way to 19 wins I can't see why anyone would be upset about them missing the tourney.

great post. 18-14 they have a shot- not a great one.

19-13 is close to a lock to me(only way it's not is if they got to 19-12- but finish 8-10 in conference, and then lose to Creighton/Marquette in 1st rd- adding another bad loss).

[Catscratchy]

I don't post much but I wanted to take a minute to chime in on this debate. I agree with stever20 in that a 14 loss xavier is in danger of missing the tourney. However, I don't think his comparison to Pitt is a good one as Xavier's computer numbers are significantly better. Xavier has a better record vs top 100 (8-7 v 4-8), away record (3-6 v 1-7), non conf SOS (52 v 132), and Xavier's only played 4 games against teams with an rpi higher than 150 while Pitt has played 9. The only metric that Pitt has an advantage in is bad losses as xavier has lost 3 games to teams with an rpi over 100 and Pitt has only lost 2. The most significant metric I believe is the top 100 record and 4 wins is not going to cut it. Not to mention xavier has 4 such games remaining and Pitt only has 2. So while I believe a 14 loss xavier is in the danger zone, I don't believe a team like Pitt will be the one who steals a bid from them. Depending on time, I may try to do this deep dive with a few other bubble teams.

[stever20]

I don't post much but I wanted to take a minute to chime in on this debate. I agree with stever20 in that a 14 loss xavier is in danger of missing the tourney. However, I don't think his comparison to Pitt is a good one as Xavier's computer numbers are significantly better. Xavier has a better record vs top 100 (8-7 v 4-8), away record (3-6 v 1-7), non conf SOS (52 v 132), and Xavier's only played 4 games against teams with an rpi higher than 150 while Pitt has played 9. The only metric that Pitt has an advantage in is bad losses as xavier has lost 3 games to teams with an rpi over 100 and Pitt has only lost 2. The most significant metric I believe is the top 100 record and 4 wins is not going to cut it. Not to mention xavier has 4 such games remaining and Pitt only has 2. So while I believe a 14 loss xavier is in the danger zone, I don't believe a team like Pitt will be the one who steals a bid from them. Depending on time, I may try to do this deep dive with a few other bubble teams.

The thing with Pitt is they could wind up with a 21-10 record, which would get their top 100 record up to 6-8. Get them a 6 seed in the ACC and another cheap win vs a WF or GT. Then a crack at a Duke where a win there and there's no doubt about it, Pitt would be in the tourney... Also just looked quickly. Pitt's RPI right now is 47. Xavier's RPI right now is 40. That's not a significantly better computer number quite frankly. Maybe the advanced metrics, but I seriously question how much the committee members look at that.

My overriding point is for some committee members, a 18-14 record is an automatic DQ- basically saying that if you are one of the top 36 teams, you should be able to have better than a 18-14 record.

[Jet915]

Georgia loses at home to South Carolina.

[stever20]

St John's loses to Georgetown. need to go 3-2 to have a bid locked up before the BET.

Georgetown pretty much clinches a spot tonight - maybe not quite but just need a win over either DePaul or Seton Hall to wrap one up.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

All of this talk about Xavier. Who cares about it?

Many or most BE fans, and a number of A10 fans who also follow the BE.

Xavier is in a very interesting situation with regard to the 2015 Bubble Watch – the topic of this thread.

Let's talk something legitimate like Villanova.

Villanova is a lock for the 2015 Tournament field, and therefore, off-topic on a 'Bubble Watch' thread.

Cincy game will be huge for X. The good news for them is that every game remaining for Xavier except @Creighton will be against a top-50 opponent, so any win they get will be a quality one. The bad news is that it will be hard for them to get wins. A road win vs. Creighton is pretty much a requirement IMO for X, getting them 17 wins.

Then that leaves them with finding two more wins from Cincy, Butler, Nova and St. John's, and their BET opening round opponent (currently Georgetown).

great post. 18-14 they have a shot - not a great one.

19-13 is close to a lock to me (only way it's not is if they got to 19-12 - but finish 8-10 in conference, and then lose to Creighton/Marquette in 1st round- adding another bad loss).

If I were a Xavier fan, I would not feel confident of an at-large invitation with less than 20 regular-season wins and at least one BET win. Here’s why:

At the end of the last regular season, the 2013-14 Xavier Musketeers had a record of 20-11 (10-8) before going 1-1 in the BET.

On Selection Sunday in March 2014, the Musketeers had a record of 21-12 and an RPI Ranking of # 47. These credentials got Xavier a # 12 seed and a play-in game at UD Arena, which they lost.

The 2013-14 Musketeers were 14-2 at home, 4-6 on the road, and 2-5 in ‘neutral court’ games.

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The 2014-15 Xavier Musketeers currently have a record of 16-10 (7-7) and an RPI Ranking of # 41. Xavier is now 12-2 at home, 3-6 on the road, and 1-2 in ‘neutral court’ games.

Tonight’s game is huge for the Musketeers. If they lose, they will pick up an 11th loss (with four tough conference games ahead), and drop to 3-7 in road games – considerably worse than last year’s team which received the final ‘at-large’ invitation to the Tournament.

Adding to the importance of tonight’s game is the fact that Xavier’s best OOC win this season is a home win over RPI # 68 Alabama. A road win over the RPI # 34 Bearcats would be a considerable boost to Xavier’s résumé.