Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Steve, I'm glad to hear that all you're saying is that Xavier fans should be nervous if they end the season at 18-14. I thought you were saying what you said above, which is that "18-14 teams just do not make the NCAA tournament . . ."

I agree that Xavier fans should be nervous at 18-14. Obviously any team would like to be in the strongest possible position on Selection Sunday, which would not be 18-14 for XU.

As a reminder, the 18-14 was not proposed as where X is likely to be at the end of the season, but that even should they fall to that level, they're still a likely selection. There is actually no reason to think that they'll end the season with only 2 more wins. There is every reason to believe that they'll continue to play at the level that they have and end the season with 19 wins + whatever they can muster in the BE tournament.

I'll repeat what I've been saying throughout this discussion. If not X at 18-14, then who. I've provided several examples of bubble teams whose profile is not as strong as X's and who would likely be dropped before them. I went into some detail re the Tulsa example.

There is nothing magical about win totals or loss totals. The committee is looking to identify the 36 strongest at-large teams. If one of those happens to have an 18-14 record, then that's who they'll take. The record only matters when it is compared with the records of others. That's what I'm asking you to do. It's what all bracketologists do when they identify their "last 4 in" and "first 4 out".

[stever20]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Steve, I'm glad to hear that all you're saying is that Xavier fans should be nervous if they end the season at 18-14. I thought you were saying what you said above, which is that "18-14 teams just do not make the NCAA tournament . . ."

I agree that Xavier fans should be nervous at 18-14. Obviously any team would like to be in the strongest possible position on Selection Sunday, which would not be 18-14 for XU.

As a reminder, the 18-14 was not proposed as where X is likely to be at the end of the season, but that even should they fall to that level, they're still a likely selection. There is actually no reason to think that they'll end the season with only 2 more wins. There is every reason to believe that they'll continue to play at the level that they have and end the season with 19 wins + whatever they can muster in the BE tournament.

I'll repeat what I've been saying throughout this discussion. If not X at 18-14, then who. I've provided several examples of bubble teams whose profile is not as strong as X's and who would likely be dropped before them. I went into some detail re the Tulsa example.

There is nothing magical about win totals or loss totals. The committee is looking to identify the 36 strongest at-large teams. If one of those happens to have an 18-14 record, then that's who they'll take. The record only matters when it is compared with the records of others. That's what I'm asking you to do. It's what all bracketologists do when they identify their "last 4 in" and "first 4 out".

Except that the committee doesn't take the 36 strongest at large teams. They haven't for years. How many times do you hear Jay Bilas or Dick Vitale complain because the committee left out a strong power conference team for someone like Mid Tennessee a few years ago(or VCU, or George Mason going way back). At some point the record does matter. You can't show me when the committee has taken a team with a 18-14 record because teams with those records just do not make the tourney any longer. What you are saying is more how the committee rolled 15 years ago. That just isn't the case in 2015.

I just don't see a 18-14 Xavier as a likely selection. And 18-14 isn't all that unrealistic to think. They lose to Cincy, St John's, and Nova. They beat Butler(due to the injury), and Creighton. That's 18-13 and 9-9. That gets them a 6 seed in the tourney, where they lose 1st rd to one of Butler, Georgetown, PC, or St John's. None of those possible losses would be all that surprising quite frankly. And the thing is with those losses, the Xavier profile would drop considerably. You would be adding a 1-4 to their RPI top 100 record. So could wind up being instead of their current 8-7 down to 9-11(or if LBSU falls out of the top 100 8-10). 5-11 record away from Cintas. 3 or 4 bad losses. Really the ONLY thing that would be in Xavier's favor at that point is the SOS. Team Rankings has their odds at about 34% I think at 18-14. That seems extremely fair- possible, but not likely. I wouldn't call any 18-14 team likely to make the tourney. None. It's tough to name individual teams because there are so many in the abyss but they could jump up easily. Look at Pitt. They win tonight vs Virginia, and all of a sudden they have 3 wins over Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Virginia.

[ta111]

I think the bottom line is that there are probably 12-15 teams who you could argue are on the bubble for the last 4 at-large selections and clearly X and Tulsa are both in that group. There are just so many variables that is impossible to say that a particular team needs a certain number of wins to be selected. It depends on what all the other teams around them are also doing. Unfortunately, we have to compare apples to oranges because the the resumes of teams are so divergent.

[Bill Marsh]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Steve, I'm glad to hear that all you're saying is that Xavier fans should be nervous if they end the season at 18-14. I thought you were saying what you said above, which is that "18-14 teams just do not make the NCAA tournament . . ."

I agree that Xavier fans should be nervous at 18-14. Obviously any team would like to be in the strongest possible position on Selection Sunday, which would not be 18-14 for XU.

As a reminder, the 18-14 was not proposed as where X is likely to be at the end of the season, but that even should they fall to that level, they're still a likely selection. There is actually no reason to think that they'll end the season with only 2 more wins. There is every reason to believe that they'll continue to play at the level that they have and end the season with 19 wins + whatever they can muster in the BE tournament.

I'll repeat what I've been saying throughout this discussion. If not X at 18-14, then who. I've provided several examples of bubble teams whose profile is not as strong as X's and who would likely be dropped before them. I went into some detail re the Tulsa example.

There is nothing magical about win totals or loss totals. The committee is looking to identify the 36 strongest at-large teams. If one of those happens to have an 18-14 record, then that's who they'll take. The record only matters when it is compared with the records of others. That's what I'm asking you to do. It's what all bracketologists do when they identify their "last 4 in" and "first 4 out".

Except that the committee doesn't take the 36 strongest at large teams. They haven't for years. How many times do you hear Jay Bilas or Dick Vitale complain because the committee left out a strong power conference team for someone like Mid Tennessee a few years ago(or VCU, or George Mason going way back). At some point the record does matter. You can't show me when the committee has taken a team with a 18-14 record because teams with those records just do not make the tourney any longer. What you are saying is more how the committee rolled 15 years ago. That just isn't the case in 2015.

I just don't see a 18-14 Xavier as a likely selection. And 18-14 isn't all that unrealistic to think. They lose to Cincy, St John's, and Nova. They beat Butler(due to the injury), and Creighton. That's 18-13 and 9-9. That gets them a 6 seed in the tourney, where they lose 1st rd to one of Butler, Georgetown, PC, or St John's. None of those possible losses would be all that surprising quite frankly. And the thing is with those losses, the Xavier profile would drop considerably. You would be adding a 1-4 to their RPI top 100 record. So could wind up being instead of their current 8-7 down to 9-11(or if LBSU falls out of the top 100 8-10). 5-11 record away from Cintas. 3 or 4 bad losses. Really the ONLY thing that would be in Xavier's favor at that point is the SOS. Team Rankings has their odds at about 34% I think at 18-14. That seems extremely fair- possible, but not likely. I wouldn't call any 18-14 team likely to make the tourney. None. It's tough to name individual teams because there are so many in the abyss but they could jump up easily. Look at Pitt. They win tonight vs Virginia, and all of a sudden they have 3 wins over Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Steve, you couldn't be more wrong.

1. Your VCU case is a terrible example. Look back at my list on page 24. The same year the committee took VCU in 2011, they also too 5 teams with records very similar to 18-14. In fact, 4 of the 5 had 14 losses. They didn't take VCU over those teams; they took them along with them. It's not either/or. Sometimes mid majors do present strong records or have scheduled well, or their conference is up. Sometimes they are the strongest team. It's just not the case this year compared with Xavier.

2. Vitale complains because he's a blow hard and is paid to put on a show. Even Bilas complains because it's his job to complain. If he comes on and says, "I agree with the committee," they have no show. Realistically when we get down to the last few teams, there's always room for discussion because the differences are minute. But even at 18-14, Xavier projects a 43 RPI. THAT's not one of the last few teams this year.

3. What the committee is trying to do is to find the teams that best match the agreed upon criteria, the most prominent of which is SOS. They have rewarded mid majors who have gone out and played strong teams OOC & have performed well against them. OTOH they have passed over other teams like SMU last year who have not scheduled well.

4. I see you're backtracking from your "That's all I'm saying" statement a couple of posts ago, suggesting that you were just saying that Xavier fans should be nervous, not that they were automatically out. Now you're arguing vociferously again that there's no way they will be taken at 18-14. Have at it. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

5. As far as Pitt is concerned, it seems to me that barring a collapse, Pitt is in. I don't see them as a team that will be competing wit Xavier. The 2 teams actually look very similar except that Pitt projects a 38 SOS instead of Xavier's 12. Look at the teams that are "first 4 out", or teams that project an RPI higher than 53, or even "last 4 in". Those are the alternatives to Xavier. Tell me who is going to be taken over Xavier THIS year.

[stever20]

if X is 18-14 they aren't a 43 RPI. They would be 18-13 at 43. Have to factor in that last loss as well...

Pitt isn't even on Lunardi's first 8 teams out right now.

But let's compare Pitt to Xavier....

Pitt has a 16-9 record right now, and a schedule left that has really 3 games left where they're the favorite, and then 2 others where it's a pickem I think. They win 4 or 5 games, they're up to 20-21 wins. That's huge. I definitely think the committee would take a 21-11 Pitt over a 18-14 Xavier- not even close. Pitt is absolutely a team that would be competing with Xavier. So would teams like Miami, Boise, Purdue, Oregon(Lunardi's 1st 4 out). Even a Davidson(have to include them since they still have a VCU game left which is a huge chance for them).

You are saying that if Xavier is 18-14, they are still a likely selection. I just think that's a load of crap. I think it's a 1 in 3 chance they get taken- or far more unlikely than it is likely.

[stever20]

I think one other thing on Xavier. If they are already one of the last 6-7 teams in the tourney(which by all accounts the are)- you're telling me they can go 2-4 the rest of the way and still make the tourney. I just don't see that all that realistic. I just see enough teams right below them currently able to go 3-2 or 4-2 or better- and be able to pass them up.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer.

Correct. Most Losses for At-large Teams Since 1985 (CBS Sports)

(a) It has been seven years since a team with 14 losses received an at-large invitation (19-14 Arizona in 2008).

(b) Furthermore, no team with as many as 13 losses received an at-large invitation to the 2013 or 2014 NCAA Tournaments.

(c) No team with more than 12 losses has received an at-large invitation since the 2012 Tournament.


These facts support stever20's assertion that "18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer", and show that in the last two years, teams with 13 losses were NIT-bound. No one can say if that 'trend' will continue for the 2015 Tournament.

2014-15 Xavier Musketeers Schedule

IF it is assumed that a 13th loss must be avoided in order to secure an at-large invitation to the 2015 NCAA Tournament, and further assumed that Xavier does not win the Big East Tournament, then the 16-10 Musketeers can afford only one more regular-season loss with the following five games remaining:

Wed, Feb. 18 - @ Cincinnati
Sat, Feb. 21 - vs. # 19 Butler
Mon, Feb. 23 - @ St. John's
Sat, Feb. 28 - vs # 6 Villanova
Sat, March 7 - @ Creighton

[stever20]

18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer.

Correct. Most Losses for At-large Teams Since 1985 (CBS Sports)

(a) It has been seven years since a team with 14 losses received an at-large invitation (19-14 Arizona in 2008).

(b) Furthermore, no team with as many as 13 losses received an at-large invitation to the 2013 or 2014 NCAA Tournaments.

(c) No team with more than 12 losses has received an at-large invitation since the 2012 Tournament.


These facts support stever20's assertion that "18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer", and show that in the last two years, teams with 13 losses were NIT-bound. No one can say if that 'trend' will continue for the 2015 Tournament.

2014-15 Xavier Musketeers Schedule

IF it is assumed that a 13th loss must be avoided in order to secure an at-large invitation to the 2015 NCAA Tournament, and further assumed that Xavier does not win the Big East Tournament, then the 16-10 Musketeers can afford only one more regular-season loss with the following five games remaining:

Wed, Feb. 18 - @ Cincinnati
Sat, Feb. 21 - vs. # 19 Butler
Mon, Feb. 23 - @ St. John's
Sat, Feb. 28 - vs # 6 Villanova
Sat, March 7 - @ Creighton

14 loss teams-
2011- Marquette, Penn St, Tennessee, USC, Mich St
2008- Arizona
2005- NC State
So last 10 years only 7 14 loss teams have made the tourney.

18 win teams- The last time a 18 win team made the tourney at large was 2008 when Oregon and Kentucky did.
2007- Stanford
2006- Indiana, Seton Hall
2005- UCLA, Stanford

So last 10 years only 7 teams with 18 wins made the tourney.

None of those 14 teams had both 18 wins and 14 losses. I would really caution using 2011- you keep on talking about different committee's- the facts have shown that was totally an outlier committee.

now I think Xavier gets to 19-13, they are close to a cinch. I hope they do make that record- based on history, I don't want to find out if I'm correct

[Bill Marsh]

18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer.

Correct. Most Losses for At-large Teams Since 1985 (CBS Sports)

(a) It has been seven years since a team with 14 losses received an at-large invitation (19-14 Arizona in 2008).

(b) Furthermore, no team with as many as 13 losses received an at-large invitation to the 2013 or 2014 NCAA Tournaments.

(c) No team with more than 12 losses has received an at-large invitation since the 2012 Tournament.


These facts support stever20's assertion that "18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer", and show that in the last two years, teams with 13 losses were NIT-bound. No one can say if that 'trend' will continue for the 2015 Tournament.

2014-15 Xavier Musketeers Schedule

IF it is assumed that a 13th loss must be avoided in order to secure an at-large invitation to the 2015 NCAA Tournament, and further assumed that Xavier does not win the Big East Tournament, then the 16-10 Musketeers can afford only one more regular-season loss with the following five games remaining:

Wed, Feb. 18 - @ Cincinnati
Sat, Feb. 21 - vs. # 19 Butler
Mon, Feb. 23 - @ St. John's
Sat, Feb. 28 - vs # 6 Villanova
Sat, March 7 - @ Creighton

All I can say is that your CBS list is wrong. On the 2011 tournament alone, there were 5 at-large teams with 14 losses when they were invited. If they're wrong about that one, I have to question the reliability of the entire list. Click on "Qualified Teams" on the link.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NCA ... fied_teams

As for no team receiving a bid with more than 12 losses since 2012, you do realize that we're only talking about 2 years, right? Does that even qualify as a trend? Seriously?

We've had multiple teams in the past 7 years go with records of 19-14 and 18-13. If you want to believe that a single win or loss is going to make the difference, that's fine with me. Maybe we'll get to find out.

[GumbyDamnit!]

AGAIN... At issue is that people continue to make assumptions across the board about these bubble teams about what is going to happen based on some stupid RPI forecast site. LET THESE TEAMS PLAY THE GAMES. A week ago Stever was sure that UCONN and FL were in better shape than SJU. Exactly one week later SJU is fine, Uconn is no where near the bubble, FL is under. .500. But now it's XU who is in trouble. These projections are ridiculous. Let them play the games. My only point is that as of today we have 6 teams in the tourney. Period. Enough with the "what's going to happen" and start focusing on what has happened.

And Stever spends a lot of time at the HLOH yet is clearly no fan of the BE. Why?