Bubble Watch

[GumbyDamnit!]

Here's another little tidbit in the Xavier (16-10) vs Tulsa (17-7). If you go to CBS Bracketology, you can compare any 2 teams. When you compare these 2, you find the following records vs teams ranked 200+

Tulsa 10-0
Xavier 2-0

So, if we ignore these utterly useless games, here are the 2 teams records

Tulsa 7-7
XU 14-10

In other words, Tulsa's schedule is padded both in conference and out with 10 cup cakes. Exclusive of those games, they're a .500 team.

Very telling.

[Bill Marsh]

I suggest you read this article by Patrick Stevens. http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens ... ry_package

Again this is the guy who has been the most accurate in the past several years and got every team correct last year.

Thanks for the link. Good info.

Look at his list of "Risers", which includes St. John's.

Look at his list of "Decliners", which includes Cincinnati. Cincy's loss to Tulane shows how much playing in a mid major conference can hurt a team's chances. Once solidly in, they are now drifting toward bubble territory as a result of that loss. Tulsa faces the same problem in that league. Boise State is another example. In the tournament in Sullivan's last list, they are now out as a result of their loss to Fresno State.

When anyone claims that the sky is falling on a team like Xavier, just look at these mid majors. In conference losses to bad (100+) and really bad (200+) teams are devastating both because the loss itself is so damaging and because there are so few other opportunities in conference at this time of the year to make up for it. Cincinnati should thank their lucky stars that Xavier was willing to schedule them at this point in the season to give them a chance to make up for that Tulane loss.

[stever20]

I suggest you read this article by Patrick Stevens. http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens ... ry_package

Again this is the guy who has been the most accurate in the past several years and got every team correct last year.

Thanks for the link. Good info.

Look at his list of "Risers", which includes St. John's.

Look at his list of "Decliners", which includes Cincinnati. Cincy's loss to Tulane shows how much playing in a mid major conference can hurt a team's chances. Once solidly in, they are now drifting toward bubble territory as a result of that loss. Tulsa faces the same problem in that league. Boise State is another example. In the tournament in Sullivan's last list, they are now out as a result of their loss to Fresno State.

When anyone claims that the sky is falling on a team like Xavier, just look at these mid majors. In conference losses to bad (100+) and really bad (200+) teams are devastating both because the loss itself is so damaging and because there are so few other opportunities in conference at this time of the year to make up for it. Cincinnati should thank their lucky stars that Xavier was willing to schedule them at this point in the season to give them a chance to make up for that Tulane loss.

Did you read Bill what he said about Cincy though:
Cincinnati: Losing at home to Tulane isn't as horrific as some folks might suggest, but it certainly isn't the way the Bearcats (17-8, 8-5 American) are going to improve their seeding. Nonetheless, it would still take a fairly notable collapse for Cincinnati to fall out of the field. Also for those idiots that think the AAC could wind up with 2- look how high Temple is up to now- #17.

And he shows where Xavier is- #33- one of the last 4 teams in. So obviously he doesn't think Xavier is a lock right now either.

[Bearcat_Bounce]

Here's what is hilarious about Stever. He points to the LBS loss as potentially bad for X as LBS is hovering around 100. But he fails to recognize that Cincy has lost to both ECU (200+) and Tulane (150+). If X beats Cincy guess what happens Stever? X replaces Cincy as a lock. If Cincy wins they are home and expected to win. X then just needs to get to .500 in conf. I feel great about 6. It's going to happen people. AAC will struggle mightily for 3 if UC loses to X.

Cincinnati has to avoid losses @Tulane, @Houston, vs UCF and vs Memphis. If they win those 4 games, they are solidly in the NCAA's. We already have 5 top 50 RPI wins, including a 3-1 record vs the RPI top 25. No more bad losses and they are in.

[Bill Marsh]

Here's what is hilarious about Stever. He points to the LBS loss as potentially bad for X as LBS is hovering around 100. But he fails to recognize that Cincy has lost to both ECU (200+) and Tulane (150+). If X beats Cincy guess what happens Stever? X replaces Cincy as a lock. If Cincy wins they are home and expected to win. X then just needs to get to .500 in conf. I feel great about 6. It's going to happen people. AAC will struggle mightily for 3 if UC loses to X.

Cincinnati has to avoid losses @Tulane, @Houston, vs UCF and vs Memphis. If they win those 4 games, they are solidly in the NCAA's. We already have 5 top 50 RPI wins, including a 3-1 record vs the RPI top 25. No more bad losses and they are in.

Yes, it's a mine field. The second tier of the AAC has just killed the league's better teams by picking them off here and there.

- Houston (244 RPI) beat UConn by 2 points, ruining their season.
- Tulane (157 RPI) beat Memphis @ Memphis by 8, thereby ruining their season.
- ECU (232 RPI) beat Memphis by 11, kicking dirt on the grave.
- ECU beat Cincy by 4 , meaning that the Tulane loss only compounded a problem that already existed.

These are mostly close losses whereas bad team got hot and a good team just didn't have it that night. Those losses are killers.

[XUFan09]

I agree with Stever that 18 wins should make Xavier fans really nervous, while 19 wins means they probably make the tournament. It's crazy how much one win does (which contributes to why that home loss to Creighton really sucks). I also am a bit frustrated that LBSU has dropped off some from being a solid top 100 team to being borderline and potentially falling out of the top 100. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but it's one of those smaller things that you just don't want when you aren't yet a lock.

[Bearcat_Bounce]

I agree with Stever that 18 wins should make Xavier fans really nervous, while 19 wins means they probably make the tournament. It's crazy how much one win does (which contributes to why that home loss to Creighton really sucks). I also am a bit frustrated that LBSU has dropped off some from being a solid top 100 team to being borderline and potentially falling out of the top 100. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but it's one of those smaller things that you just don't want when you aren't yet a lock.

If Xavier were to only win 18 games including the conference tournament, then they would have 14 or more losses. I believe 2000-01 Georgia is the only team to receive an at large bid with 14 or more losses (they were 16-14). Now the season has expanded by 1-2 games so that number may not mean much anymore but I don't think they can get in with just 18 wins!


EDIT: So apparently I'm an idiot. I haven't researched that topic since UC was 18-14 in like 08 and at that time Georgia was the only team. I am wrong.

[Bill Marsh]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.

Records in that neighborhood don't necessarily rule you out either. All within the past 7 years:

2012 - West Virginia (19-13)
2011 - Penn State (19-14)
2011 - Tennessee (19-14)
2011 - Michigan State (19-14)
2011 - USC (19-14)
2011 - Illinois (19-13)
2009 - Arizona (19-13)
2008 - Arizona (19-14)
2008 - Oregon (18-13)

It's a matter of how a team stacks up against the competition. Xavier will be viewed in light of the fact that they have the 12th toughest schedule and they have played well against it.

You can't point to someone else because there is no one else. It's not just about having glitzy numbers. We've seen committee after committee pass over teams with a record that looks good, based just on the numbers but who don't have the SOS to give it any substance.

I'm bringing this post from yesterday morning forward because it shows 5 teams with 14 losses receiving at-large bids. And I only went back as far as 2008.

[BEwannabe]

so many variables over the next few weeks, Xavier as someone else already mentioned is better off than some and worse off than others but I think they're in pretty good shape. With so few games left some teams have a heavy emphasis on their own outcome while other at the opposite end of the spectrum are dependent on what their season long oppoenents perform. Xavier is kind in the middle with a 7% value placed on their own performance and they should get a nice boost if Nova plays well...Nova performance has over a 3% factor for X. Alternately in the Big East you have St. John's, the Johnnies only have a 2.25% influence on their own outcome but the Storm does get like benefit of Nova. Teams like Colorado St. over 17% and Dayton over 15% NCAA future is largely going to be based on their own performance, so they'll both be in if they win the games their expected to win but a misstep in the mine field that is the bottom of their conferences would drop them in a hurry.

[stever20]

I agree with Stever that 18 wins should make Xavier fans really nervous, while 19 wins means they probably make the tournament. It's crazy how much one win does (which contributes to why that home loss to Creighton really sucks). I also am a bit frustrated that LBSU has dropped off some from being a solid top 100 team to being borderline and potentially falling out of the top 100. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but it's one of those smaller things that you just don't want when you aren't yet a lock.

That's all I'm saying. Anyone who thinks a 18-14 Xavier is a lock is just a homer and very unrealistic. I'd go so far to say I think if Xavier got to 19-13, they are a lock. I think there is a big difference to the committee from a team 4 games over .500 and a team 6 games over .500.