Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

B Marsh,

Sorry to have hit a sore spot. A bit defenisve? Look, if losses to UTEP and LBS and Depaul are ok with you then have at it. If you are going to substantiate your argument by claiming a "good win" as one vs. a bad Alabama team then that's fine too. X is a bubble team. It's that simple. The whole country knows it. They are not solidly in. I apologize for pointing that out. Your points made in your response only validated exactly what my initial point was.

Either way, it would be super for them to get in. I sense though that they will be sweating it out come Selection Sunday and wouldnt be surprised if they were in the play-in game.....again.

Why would I be defensive? I'm not a Xavier fan. Just having fun with the conversation.

Any of these isolated criticisms of any team's record ignore the fact that the committee is always dealing with comparisons. It's about how Team A stacks up against Teams B, C, and D. When I look at Xavier and look at who else is out there, I see a tournament team when I look at Xavier. I'd love to know who you're looking at who you think is going to get picked over them.

[stever20]

B Marsh,

Sorry to have hit a sore spot. A bit defenisve? Look, if losses to UTEP and LBS and Depaul are ok with you then have at it. If you are going to substantiate your argument by claiming a "good win" as one vs. a bad Alabama team then that's fine too. X is a bubble team. It's that simple. The whole country knows it. They are not solidly in. I apologize for pointing that out. Your points made in your response only validated exactly what my initial point was.

Either way, it would be super for them to get in. I sense though that they will be sweating it out come Selection Sunday and wouldnt be surprised if they were in the play-in game.....again.

Why would I be defensive? I'm not a Xavier fan. Just having run with the conversation.

Any of these isolated criticisms of any team's record ignore the fact that the committee is always dealing with comparisons. It's about how Team A stacks up against Teams B, C, and D. When I look at Xavier and look at who else is out there, I see a tournament team when I look at Xavier. I'd love to know who you're looking at who you think is going to get picked over them.

Your problem is you just want to ignore that Xavier has a poor record and they have a poor record away from home. You are wanting to use only the eye test, and that's just not how the committee does things now. Hasn't been for years.

[Omaha1]

You know X got in last year, right?

If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.

Stever20 gets it. No one is saying X is out. Simply that they are not solidly in and likely a bubble team and at the rate of consistency with which they are playing they are likely one of the last teams in or bound for the NIT. If they win out and go 22-11 or something then they are in. No doubt. If they finish 19-14, then they are likely out. Kevin O'Neill got Arizona in with an abysmal record on year. Committee won't do that again.

Luckily, X's fate is in it's own hands just like for everyone else too.

Clearly another BigEast hater. Or else Stever posting under another name. I think we all like good chatter but blind hate is a detriment to the discussion. Move along to the UD board or wherever you came from.

[stever20]

You know X got in last year, right?

If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.

Stever20 gets it. No one is saying X is out. Simply that they are not solidly in and likely a bubble team and at the rate of consistency with which they are playing they are likely one of the last teams in or bound for the NIT. If they win out and go 22-11 or something then they are in. No doubt. If they finish 19-14, then they are likely out. Kevin O'Neill got Arizona in with an abysmal record on year. Committee won't do that again.

Luckily, X's fate is in it's own hands just like for everyone else too.

19-14 is an interesting thing. 19-14 would mean 18-13 then a win in the BET. If they were 18-13 and they lose to Cincy but finish 9-9 then in conference play, they would be 6th almost certainly. That would mean a win over 3rd place likely PC or Georgetown. That would get them in easily. If they were 18-13 but with a win over Cincy- that means 8-10 in the BE and a 7th place finish. That would mean a win over Creighton/Marquette and then a loss in the QF. That's no where near as much of a lock.

[Bill Marsh]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.

Records in that neighborhood don't necessarily rule you out either. All within the past 7 years:

2012 - West Virginia (19-13)
2011 - Penn State (19-14)
2011 - Tennessee (19-14)
2011 - Michigan State (19-14)
2011 - USC (19-14)
2011 - Illinois (19-13)
2009 - Arizona (19-13)
2008 - Arizona (19-14)
2008 - Oregon (18-13)

It's a matter of how a team stacks up against the competition. Xavier will be viewed in light of the fact that they have the 12th toughest schedule and they have played well against it.

You can't point to someone else because there is no one else. It's not just about having glitzy numbers. We've seen committee after committee pass over teams with a record that looks good, based just on the numbers but who don't have the SOS to give it any substance.

[Bill Marsh]

You know X got in last year, right?

If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.

Stever20 gets it. No one is saying X is out. Simply that they are not solidly in and likely a bubble team and at the rate of consistency with which they are playing they are likely one of the last teams in or bound for the NIT. If they win out and go 22-11 or something then they are in. No doubt. If they finish 19-14, then they are likely out. Kevin O'Neill got Arizona in with an abysmal record on year. Committee won't do that again.

Why won't the committee do that again?

There was a reason why they took that Arizona team. And it wasn't an isolated case. Barring a complete collapse, Xavier is in.

[stever20]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.

Records in that neighborhood don't necessarily rule you out either. All within the past 7 years:

2012 - West Virginia (19-13)
2011 - Penn State (19-14)
2011 - Tennessee (19-14)
2011 - Michigan State (19-14)
2011 - USC (19-14)
2011 - Illinois (19-13)
2009 - Arizona (19-13)
2008 - Arizona (19-14)
2008 - Oregon (18-13)

It's a matter of how a team stacks up against the competition. Xavier will be viewed in light of the fact that they have the 12th toughest schedule and they have played well against it.

You can't point to someone else because there is no one else. It's not just about having glitzy numbers. We've seen committee after committee pass over teams with a record that looks good, based just on the numbers but who don't have the SOS to give it any substance.

But Xavier won't only be viewed in the light of the 12th toughest schedule. They'll be viewed in the light that they have at least 3 bad losses, and quite possibly 4. They'll be viewed in the light they are 4-8 away from home(2-5 in conference play).. That's the thing. When your record is as poor as Xavier's could be, you need to have everything else in order. Xavier just doesn't. I think most on here would agree, Xavier would be well served to not finish 18-14 and leave it up to the committee. The biggest compare is to the 2011 Michigan St team. They were only 18-14 as well. #9 SOS. They got a 10 seed in the SE. Here's the major difference between them and Xavier. They had 1 loss all year long to a team with RPI 53 or worse. Just 1. Xavier right now has 6 such losses. That's a HUGE difference.

I'm not saying Xavier is out, just they shouldn't want to tempt fate and try to get in at 18-14. It probably wouldn't wind up good for them.

And, we've seen committee after committee not take teams from big conferences but just don't have the good records.

[stever20]

One thing- if Xavier does finish 18-14, it would be close to a complete collapse. They would be 4-7 last 11 games with losses in 5 of the last 7 games.

[Bill Marsh]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.

It's even more than that. The committee always looks at road record since you play all tourney games away from home. X is 4-8 away from home. Not good. They need to win at UC or they are really in deep trouble.

Despite the losing record, Team Rankings has Xavier ranked #30 away from home. The committee doesn't look just at won/loss record but who you played and how you played. This is not the bad record so many of you are claiming.

#176 San Diego - 11 point win
#62 UTEP - 4 point loss
#96 LB St - 3 point loss
#190 @Missouri - 16 point win
#148 @Auburn - 1 point loss
#134 @DePaul - 3 point loss
#24 @Butler - 12 point loss
#4 @Villanova - 13 point loss
#22 @Providence - 3 point loss
#21 @Georgetown - 13 point win
#73 @Seton Hall - 8 point loss
#142 @Marquette - 20 point win

1. Not a single blow out loss.
2. Not a single sub-200 cup cake on the schedule
3. Of the 8 losses, 5 are by 4 points or less
4. Only 2 losses in double digits & both were to top 25 teams
5. Double digit win over #21 Georgetown
6. Four top 25 teams on the schedule

Note: all rankings are current RPI according to Daily RPI.

[Jet915]

Iowa loses on the road to Northwestern.