gavitspeaks wrote:B Marsh,
Sorry to have hit a sore spot. A bit defenisve? Look, if losses to UTEP and LBS and Depaul are ok with you then have at it. If you are going to substantiate your argument by claiming a "good win" as one vs. a bad Alabama team then that's fine too. X is a bubble team. It's that simple. The whole country knows it. They are not solidly in. I apologize for pointing that out. Your points made in your response only validated exactly what my initial point was.
Either way, it would be super for them to get in. I sense though that they will be sweating it out come Selection Sunday and wouldnt be surprised if they were in the play-in game.....again.
Bill Marsh wrote:gavitspeaks wrote:B Marsh,
Sorry to have hit a sore spot. A bit defenisve? Look, if losses to UTEP and LBS and Depaul are ok with you then have at it. If you are going to substantiate your argument by claiming a "good win" as one vs. a bad Alabama team then that's fine too. X is a bubble team. It's that simple. The whole country knows it. They are not solidly in. I apologize for pointing that out. Your points made in your response only validated exactly what my initial point was.
Either way, it would be super for them to get in. I sense though that they will be sweating it out come Selection Sunday and wouldnt be surprised if they were in the play-in game.....again.
Why would I be defensive? I'm not a Xavier fan. Just having run with the conversation.
Any of these isolated criticisms of any team's record ignore the fact that the committee is always dealing with comparisons. It's about how Team A stacks up against Teams B, C, and D. When I look at Xavier and look at who else is out there, I see a tournament team when I look at Xavier. I'd love to know who you're looking at who you think is going to get picked over them.
gavitspeaks wrote:You know X got in last year, right?
If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.
Stever20 gets it. No one is saying X is out. Simply that they are not solidly in and likely a bubble team and at the rate of consistency with which they are playing they are likely one of the last teams in or bound for the NIT. If they win out and go 22-11 or something then they are in. No doubt. If they finish 19-14, then they are likely out. Kevin O'Neill got Arizona in with an abysmal record on year. Committee won't do that again.
Luckily, X's fate is in it's own hands just like for everyone else too.
gavitspeaks wrote:You know X got in last year, right?
If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.
Stever20 gets it. No one is saying X is out. Simply that they are not solidly in and likely a bubble team and at the rate of consistency with which they are playing they are likely one of the last teams in or bound for the NIT. If they win out and go 22-11 or something then they are in. No doubt. If they finish 19-14, then they are likely out. Kevin O'Neill got Arizona in with an abysmal record on year. Committee won't do that again.
Luckily, X's fate is in it's own hands just like for everyone else too.
stever20 wrote:The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.
Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.
gavitspeaks wrote:You know X got in last year, right?
If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.
Stever20 gets it. No one is saying X is out. Simply that they are not solidly in and likely a bubble team and at the rate of consistency with which they are playing they are likely one of the last teams in or bound for the NIT. If they win out and go 22-11 or something then they are in. No doubt. If they finish 19-14, then they are likely out. Kevin O'Neill got Arizona in with an abysmal record on year. Committee won't do that again.
Bill Marsh wrote:stever20 wrote:The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.
Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.
Records in that neighborhood don't necessarily rule you out either. All within the past 7 years:
2012 - West Virginia (19-13)
2011 - Penn State (19-14)
2011 - Tennessee (19-14)
2011 - Michigan State (19-14)
2011 - USC (19-14)
2011 - Illinois (19-13)
2009 - Arizona (19-13)
2008 - Arizona (19-14)
2008 - Oregon (18-13)
It's a matter of how a team stacks up against the competition. Xavier will be viewed in light of the fact that they have the 12th toughest schedule and they have played well against it.
You can't point to someone else because there is no one else. It's not just about having glitzy numbers. We've seen committee after committee pass over teams with a record that looks good, based just on the numbers but who don't have the SOS to give it any substance.
ta111 wrote:stever20 wrote:The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.
Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.
It's even more than that. The committee always looks at road record since you play all tourney games away from home. X is 4-8 away from home. Not good. They need to win at UC or they are really in deep trouble.
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