Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

While it's true that X does have a few bad losses, they're balanced by good wins vs Providence and Georgetown (twice) while competing against the 12th toughest schedule in the country. Barring another loss to Creighton, that's the end of their bad losses and they're likely to pick up another good win or two down the stretch.

Who is out there without bad losses that the committee is going to take over them?

Would be great if X got in. Please don't misunderstand me. Let's be truthful though. Average in our BE is the same as average in other reputable leagues. Providence and Georgetown are average too. X has losses to UTEP and LBS as well as Auburn and Creighton and Depaul. Who is the marquee win on their schedule? Is there a win on the schedule somewhere that they won and shouldn't have?

Beating Georgetown on the road is a game X was not supposed to win. But exactly what do you mean when you talk about games they "shouldn't have won"? If you're saying they're just an "average" team, then sure, there are plenty of wins on their schedule that an "average" team shouldn't have won. If you're saying they were supposed to beat Providence, Georgetown twice, Seton Hall, Alabama, Murray State, SFA, and Long Beach St, then they're better than an "average" team because average teams don't routinely win those games.

UTEP and LBS on neutral courts by a combined 7 points are not bad losses. Those are top 100 teams. They might be considered bad losses if those games were played at home, but they weren't.

Average in the Big East is not the same as average in any other "reputable" league - whatever "reputable" means. ( Do you mean elite?) the BE is the #2 ranked conference in the country this year. It is a step up from every other league in the country except one.

What's missing from your criticism of Xavier is context. The committee is going to have to go at least 50 teams deep to get 36 at-large teams.the farther down the list they go, the more they are going to find teams with bad losses or weak schedules or both. Xavier's schedule projects as #12 in the country by season's end.

Again I ask, who is out there without bad losses that the committee is going to take over them if they come up with even 2 more wins? Context.

[gavitspeaks]

B Marsh,

Sorry to have hit a sore spot. A bit defenisve? Look, if losses to UTEP and LBS and Depaul are ok with you then have at it. If you are going to substantiate your argument by claiming a "good win" as one vs. a bad Alabama team then that's fine too. X is a bubble team. It's that simple. The whole country knows it. They are not solidly in. I apologize for pointing that out. Your points made in your response only validated exactly what my initial point was.

Either way, it would be super for them to get in. I sense though that they will be sweating it out come Selection Sunday and wouldnt be surprised if they were in the play-in game.....again.

[stever20]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.

[DudeAnon]

too many bad losses for X. A win vs. Butler and Villanova would help their cause. On paper, X is the same as a year ago. Average.

You know X got in last year, right?

[stever20]

too many bad losses for X. A win vs. Butler and Villanova would help their cause. On paper, X is the same as a year ago. Average.

You know X got in last year, right?

If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.

[NJRedman]

too many bad losses for X. A win vs. Butler and Villanova would help their cause. On paper, X is the same as a year ago. Average.

You know X got in last year, right?

And St. John's just missed out. I think those two programs switch places this year. SJU gets in as a low seed and X just misses. Though like I said earlier this will all play itself out. They could end up finishing the season at 18-13 but they could also end the season 21-10. Looking at their schedule I think they end up 19-12 in the regular season. Wins over Cincy, upset of Butler at home and Creighton losing to Nova and my Johnnies.

[gavitspeaks]

You know X got in last year, right?

If X got up to 20 wins, they would be an absolute lock(I actually think 19 TBH). That's the big difference from last year- last year they had 20 d1 wins- was 20-12. Even with that last year, they were the next to last team in the tourney.

Stever20 gets it. No one is saying X is out. Simply that they are not solidly in and likely a bubble team and at the rate of consistency with which they are playing they are likely one of the last teams in or bound for the NIT. If they win out and go 22-11 or something then they are in. No doubt. If they finish 19-14, then they are likely out. Kevin O'Neill got Arizona in with an abysmal record on year. Committee won't do that again.

Luckily, X's fate is in it's own hands just like for everyone else too.

[XUFan09]

B Marsh,

Sorry to have hit a sore spot. A bit defenisve? Look, if losses to UTEP and LBS and Depaul are ok with you then have at it. If you are going to substantiate your argument by claiming a "good win" as one vs. a bad Alabama team then that's fine too. X is a bubble team. It's that simple. The whole country knows it. They are not solidly in. I apologize for pointing that out. Your points made in your response only validated exactly what my initial point was.

Either way, it would be super for them to get in. I sense though that they will be sweating it out come Selection Sunday and wouldnt be surprised if they were in the play-in game.....again.

I question whether someone knows what they are talking about when they lump UTEP and LBSU in with DePaul. When they call Alabama a bad team, though, I'm confident that they don't know what they're talking about.

You got the general gist at least: Xavier dropped onto the bubble with this loss at home. You're just clueless about the details.

[ta111]

The problem Bill is they would have a 18-14 record. 18-14 records just do not make the NCAA tournament much any longer. With 3 sub 100 losses- Auburn, DePaul, and Creighton. Long Beach St is up to 96 so that could be a 4th. You add mediocre record, 3 or 4 bad losses, and a bad road/neutral record- and it's tough to see them getting in at 18-14. Definitely would not want to tempt fate at all there. Can't name an individual team here right now that they definitely would take over Xavier, but with 3 weeks to go someone will step up almost certainly. Teams always do.

Your problem is you want to totally discount the record, and the committees of recent have shown they won't do that.

It's even more than that. The committee always looks at road record since you play all tourney games away from home. X is 4-8 away from home. Not good. They need to win at UC or they are really in deep trouble.

[stever20]

B Marsh,

Sorry to have hit a sore spot. A bit defenisve? Look, if losses to UTEP and LBS and Depaul are ok with you then have at it. If you are going to substantiate your argument by claiming a "good win" as one vs. a bad Alabama team then that's fine too. X is a bubble team. It's that simple. The whole country knows it. They are not solidly in. I apologize for pointing that out. Your points made in your response only validated exactly what my initial point was.

Either way, it would be super for them to get in. I sense though that they will be sweating it out come Selection Sunday and wouldnt be surprised if they were in the play-in game.....again.

I question whether someone knows what they are talking about when they lump UTEP and LBSU in with DePaul. When they call Alabama a bad team, though, I'm confident that they don't know what they're talking about.

You got the general gist at least: Xavier dropped onto the bubble with this loss at home. You're just clueless about the details.

LBSU is getting really close though to being a bad loss. They've lost 3 in a row here last week or so, and now have next 2 games vs UC Davis(19-4), and then @ Hawaii(18-9). RPI Forecast shows them finishing at 14-16(they have 2 non d1 wins). It's interesting on the RPI forecast site- they say expected RPI is 99.8, but then you go on their page and 14-16 as final record equates to a 106.8 expected RPI.

The only ones calling UTEP a bad loss are those idiots who think if you aren't in the F5 or Big East, you suck no matter what. UTEP could wind up being a top 50 team end of the year. The only way UTEP was a bad loss was in the fact that then they had to play Long Beach State rather than Washington.