Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

All I'm saying I wouldn't call it likely that they'll play each other 3 times. I think for one, the status of the Georgetown tiebreakers- with PC and X holding sweeps- hurts Georgetown big time. I mean look at PC- they have 3 at least 64% wins, then 2 games @ Seton Hall and vs Butler- where they are a 45-46% chance. If they win 4 games, that puts them at 11-7. For PC to be projected as 10-8 when they are already 7-5 and with those numbers- doesn't feel right at all. Xavier is favored in 4/5 final games. That puts them at 11-7. That happens, Georgetown is 5th.

And if Georgetown sweeps St John's like you said earlier, that makes the Butler game a whole lot more interesting as it would be for 2nd place.

One last thing- St John's needs to root big time against Seton Hall. Seton Hall gets 1 more win, and it could be a 3 way tie for 6th at 8-10. DePaul has that tiebreaker.

As I said, Steve, your argument is not with me. Take it up with RPI Forecast. PC and X have to actually tie Georgetown for the tie breakers to come into play. Their two 50-50 games statistically project to 1-1.

Just from a statistical POV, PC's 3 games with a 64% chance of winning means that statistically they're likely to go 2-1, not 3-0. Their two 50-50 games project to 1-1 statistically. So, those 5 games are likely to be 3-2, not 4-1. That's all the RPI forecast is telling us and that's what I was using.

Your hypotheticals are interesting, but frankly anything is possible - especially when dealing with games that figure to be close. The odd thing is that you take just the opposite approach when you're talking about St. John's where you assume losses in their upcoming close games. You really seem to be coloring the projections by your feelings about each of the teams. That's fine, but why not just say so instead of referencing stats which ultimately don't support your conclusions.

[Bill Marsh]

Records vs RPI Top 100:

SJU 6-5
FL 4-10
UCONN 3-8
Tulsa 2-5

That doesn't matter. What is their projected RPI at the end of the season?

If "projected" anything mattered then why play the games? If you know the outcomesof all remaining games please let me know. The fact of the matter is that as of today SJU has a much better resume' than the others. The rest is all noise. That is all we can judge a team by. 3 days ago we were told that FL was going to win 7 of 8 and had a 70% of beating Ole Miss. They didn't so that projection meant absolutely ZERO.

Gumby, that projection meant zero because it had nothing to do with reality.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Your hypotheticals are interesting, but frankly anything is possible - especially when dealing with games that figure to be close. The odd thing is that you take just the opposite approach when you're talking about St. John's where you assume losses in their upcoming close games. You really seem to be coloring the projections by your feelings about each of the teams. That's fine, but why not just say so instead of referencing stats which ultimately don't support your conclusions.

Bill you were able to more succinctly capture my thoughts on this. Well said.

[stever20]

First off, just want to say I love this debate.

My point on UConn especially- while yes today they wouldn't go over St John's, today isn't the end of the season. UConn has 3 cupcakes and St John's has 3 road tough games left. When you factor those games in, those teams are a whole lot closer. UConn is 17-9 and St John's is 15-11. After that look at what they have left, and that is where UConn has a big advantage.... Heck, just let's go to Tuesday. UConn loses tonight to SMU. They are 14-10. St John's has lost to St John's and Georgetown. They are 15-10. Are you telling me that St John's is that much ahead of UConn at that point? And what if UConn upsets SMU tonight? That happens, UConn probably on Tuesday night would be ahead of St John's.

Also you may not know- but a St John's win over Xavier would not be as good as a UConn win over SMU. SMU is about 10 spots higher in the RPI right now. That's why tonight is such a big chance for UConn. You would see their RPI zoom up if they won.

records vs RPI top 100
UConn right now is 4-8. Wins over Dayton, Florida, Cincy, and Tulsa(none are even really close to being out of the top 100)
St John's right now is 6-6. Losses to Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Butler, Nova, Duke, and Butler...

by definition- St John's would be adding losses to Xavier, Georgetown, Villanova, and then 1 more of Seton Hall, Xavier, and Georgetown(with the other 2 being wins). So they would be adding 2-4. So 8-10 vs RPI top 100.
UConn would be adding wins to at least 2 of SMU, SMU, and Temple, with the other a loss. So 6-9 vs RPI top 100. But- could get even more if Memphis remains in the top 100(going to be close). Could be 8-9 vs RPI top 100.

My point is simple, UConn has a whole lot more wiggle room than St John's realistically does. If St John's can get a road win vs Xavier, Georgetown, or Nova- more power to them.... But, none of those are very realistic IMO. And seeing real early X is up 10-3 on St John's. I'm sorry- I just would rather have a situation where I don't have to win the 4 winnable pick'em type games to a situation where I have to win 4 pick'em type games. I'm assuming that both UConn and St John's will lose 1 of those 4 close games- and because of that, UConn would have a much better chance of getting in.

[stever20]

Well, I think I need to jinx St John's more often Huge win for them- gives them the wiggle room they need.... Kind of glad they have what was being counted as a loss coming up next if you know what I mean. How often have we seen St John's where they get a great win like this, and then follow it up with a clunker. See earlier beat PC and then lose to DePaul. Play great vs Duke, then a clunker vs Creighton.

Xavier will be interesting now. I think they have to get at least 1 win next week @ Cincy and then Butler at home. Don't want to go into the last 3 games at 16-12, with games @ St John's and then Nova. I think they have to go 2-1 these next 3 games. They have a bit of a margin for error, but not much.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever, I think you picked the wrong day to stick to your guns that SJU is in worse shape than UCONN. They have a better record vs the Top 100. They are 30 spots higher in RPI. They play in a tougher league. Do you want to try to run that argument by me again how UCONN is a bigger lock? As Bill and I pointed out so clearly, let the games play out before you make your definitive RPI projection predictions.

Also I find it hilarious that you just assumed that SJU would lose to And CONN will obviously win tonight. I would imagine that after today SJU will be in the low 40's and the Huskies in the mid 80's. If they do win tonight is that a bigger indication of them being a valid tournament candidate or an indictment of SMU? It would be really bad for them to lose to an 80+ RPI team at home on the day College Gameday visits.

BTW that AAC "lock" down in Cincy scored 13 pts in the first half at HOME against a team with an RPI over 150. That league deserves its spot as the 9th best conference.

[James]

First off, just want to say I love this debate.

My point on UConn especially- while yes today they wouldn't go over St John's, today isn't the end of the season. UConn has 3 cupcakes and St John's has 3 road tough games left. When you factor those games in, those teams are a whole lot closer. UConn is 17-9 and St John's is 15-11. After that look at what they have left, and that is where UConn has a big advantage.... Heck, just let's go to Tuesday. UConn loses tonight to SMU. They are 14-10. St John's has lost to St John's and Georgetown. They are 15-10. Are you telling me that St John's is that much ahead of UConn at that point? And what if UConn upsets SMU tonight? That happens, UConn probably on Tuesday night would be ahead of St John's.

If we lose to St. John's then I'm still counting that as win. They do say we are our own worst enemy at times

[stever20]

Stever, I think you picked the wrong day to stick to your guns that SJU is in worse shape than UCONN. They are now 7-5 vs the RPI Top 100. UCONN is 3-8. They are 30 spots higher in RPI. They play in a tougher league. Do you want to try to run that argument by me again how UCONN is a bigger lock? As Bill and Inpointednout so clearly, let the games play out before you make your definitive RPI projection predictions.

If they win tonight is that a bigger indication of them being a valid tournament candidate or an indictment of SMU? It would be really bad for them to lose to an 80+ RPI team at home on the day College Gameday visits.

BTW that AAC "lock" down in Cincy scored 13 pts in the first half at HOME against a team with an RPI over 150. That league deserves its spot as the 9th best conference.

St John's is 7-6 vs RPI top 100. UConn is 4-8. Dayton, Florida, Cincy, and Tulsa is 4 top 100 wins for UConn.

AAC is the 8th best conference- not 9th.

And if UConn beats SMU- I don't think SMU gets all that dinged. UConn has had 4 losses by 4 or fewer points. And it's not like they haven't started to look like a good team. End of the year, that wouldn't be a bad loss at all.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Holy Crap! #177 RPI Tulane beats Cincy on the Bearcat home floor. Terrible day for the AAC. Could they be a 2 bid league?

[GumbyDamnit!]

GW loses at home to VCU. That was GW's chance to get back in the conversation.