Bubble Watch

[hoyahooligan]

Blind Resume time: Not interested in who each team is, but the team below were give the following seeds in the mock selection: two 3s, two 4, two 5s, and 2 sixs. How would you distribute those seeds? No Cheating.

Team A
17-7
RPI 12
SOS 5
kenpom 9
9-4 vs top 50
2 losses over RPI 100

Team B
16-8
RPI 21
SOS 3
kenpom 22
3-8 vs top 50
0 losses over RPI 100

Team C
23-2
RPI 16
SOS 119
Kenpom 15
2-1 vs top 50
1 loss over RPI 100

Team D
17-6
RPI 19
SOS 27
kenpom 21
6-4 vs top 50
2 losses over RPI 100

Team E
18-6
RPI 9
SOS 2
kenpom 12
3-6 vs top 50
0 losses over RPI 100

Team F
19-5
RPI 23
SOS 70
Kenpom 29
3-2 vs top 50
0 losses over RPI 100

Team G
16-7
RPI 20
SOS 15
Kenpom 17
6-5 vs top 50
2 losses over RPI 100

Team H
20-5
RPI 14
SOS 36
Kenpom 37
5-5 vs. top 50
No losses over RPI 100

[XUFan09]

Just from a statistical perspective, Florida is in better shape. I mean, St John's would have to win all 5 of their favored games, with 3 being pretty much pick'em type games..

...And right on queue FLA loses at home to Ole Miss. Tulsa also got smoked by UCONN whose only chance at a tourney bid is winning the AAC conf tourney (which apparently is a foregone conclusion). Two more teams that Stever thought were in better shape than SJU.

Stever no problem being an amateur bracketologists but please enough of the crystal ball definitives. You were certain that FL had a very good chance of winning 7 of 8 even though they've been mediocre all year. Guess what, they're just not very good. Neither is Tulsa. You are running out of other teams to put in front of the BE bubble teams. X is more than fine and if SJU can win the games they are supposed to and grab a game in the BET they too are fine. You know who is no longer fine: Tulsa and FLA. Oops.

The bolded part can be said of any bubble team. Team Rankings have up-to-date tournament probabilities:

Tulsa - 78%
Florida - 53% (big drop)
UConn - 43%
St. John's - 30%
Seton Hall - 13%

Stever isn't crazy on some of these tournament projections.

[BEwannabe]

re: X and Stain, I don't recall X being #1 thru 15 RPI last year where VCU has ranked this season and I was way overstating the downside case for the Rams in my previous post because even with a terrible slide they would still pull in about #25 and I think X was in the 40 range which landed them in play in.

Kenyon Martin was hurt in the 1st game UC played in the conference tourney.

VCU has to win 1 other game to get #25 RPI besides SLU/GMU. If they only beat SLU/GMU they are about #31 entering the A10 tourney. A loss there and they are 20-12 with roughly a 40 RPI at that point. I frankly don't see how the committee could put them in at that point.

So you think VCU goes 2-6 (including loss in Conference tourney)? That's the only way they'll even end up near the bubble.

Keep up with the conversation my friend, I was highlighting the absurdity of the notion that VCU would not be selected to NCAA field and at the same time suggesting to some blinded fellas here that VCU's woes doesn't necessarily work against A10 but rather likely enhances the A10 chances for 3 and lottery type chance at 4 considering how many A10 teams are pushing the bubble and I don't think UD or VCU will win A10 tourney.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Just from a statistical perspective, Florida is in better shape. I mean, St John's would have to win all 5 of their favored games, with 3 being pretty much pick'em type games..

...And right on queue FLA loses at home to Ole Miss. Tulsa also got smoked by UCONN whose only chance at a tourney bid is winning the AAC conf tourney (which apparently is a foregone conclusion). Two more teams that Stever thought were in better shape than SJU.

Stever no problem being an amateur bracketologists but please enough of the crystal ball definitives. You were certain that FL had a very good chance of winning 7 of 8 even though they've been mediocre all year. Guess what, they're just not very good. Neither is Tulsa. You are running out of other teams to put in front of the BE bubble teams. X is more than fine and if SJU can win the games they are supposed to and grab a game in the BET they too are fine. You know who is no longer fine: Tulsa and FLA. Oops.

The bolded part can be said of any bubble team. Team Rankings have up-to-date tournament probabilities:

Tulsa - 78%
Florida - 53% (big drop)
UConn - 43%
St. John's - 30%
Seton Hall - 13%

Stever isn't crazy on some of these tournament projections.

I believe this is a case where the #'s just don't add up. Can someone, ANYONE, show me how Tulsa has done enough to warrant even consideration to be on the bubble? And yet you are saying that as of today they have a 2.5 times better chance of making the tourney than SJU. 0-3 vs. RPI Top 25. 1-4 vs. Top 50. THREE wins vs. the RPI top 100 and two of those teams are #96 and #97. They have a SOS of 109. Unless they win @ SMU, beat Cincy at home and beat Temple again, and don't suffer another humiliating loss, (and then knock off someone else in the ACC tourney) I just don't see it. How can anyone realistically justify Tulsa? They've beaten exactly no one OOC (best win OOC is vs. 127 Creighton--sorry Jays fans) and the AAC is the 8th best conf in the land. You are a committee member and you look at this resume'... what are you hanging your hat on? Screw the RPI projection sites and just use your BBall common sense. How does a team with 3 Top 100 wins (barely) warrant discussion for an at-large bid? SJU on the other hand has twice as many Top 100 wins and has 2 against RPI Top 25. Their SOS is 31.

And then FL... They are a .500 team in a so-so conference. They've lost 6 of their last 8. They still have to go to Texas A&M, LSU and UK. That is on top of a couple more tough home games. They are NOT making the tourney no matter what some RPI forecast site is telling you. They have a better than 50% chance of finishing with 16 losses. 16 losses!!!!

UCONN has an RPI of 96. 96.

So please someone put down the calculator for a second and tell me, by using your own set of eyes and your own knowledge of college hoops, how any of these teams are that much more of a prohibitive favorite to make the tourney over SJU?

[Bill Marsh]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

[stever20]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

Tulsa you are probably right. The thing though about St John's is they have to win basically 3 pickem type games- AND not mess up @ Marquette. IF St John's does that, they'll get in. If they don't, they won't have enough wins to be close enough to make a difference.

About UConn- their RPI now is 87 not 96. If they get 5-6 wins, it's going to be going up big time. 3 top 35 games left and 4 road games will do that. They control their own fate just like St John's does.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

Agree Bill. Bottom line is that teams need to win games down the stretch to justify their selection. I just get frustrated by the line of thought that looks at RPI Projection sites and use that as Gospel. No one knows for sure what's going to happen--we can only look at current resumes and recognize that everything will be fluid. If the season ended today there is NO way Tulsa gets in and the same can be said for UCONN and FL. Thinking that these team have a much better shot at the tourney at this point in time makes no sense to me.

[stever20]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

Agree Bill. Bottom line is that teams need to win games down the stretch to justify their selection. I just get frustrated by the line of thought that looks at RPI Projection sites and use that as Gospel. No one knows for sure what's going to happen--we can only look at current resumes and recognize that everything will be fluid. If the season ended today there is NO way Tulsa gets in and the same can be said for UCONN and FL. Thinking that these team have a much better shot at the tourney at this point in time makes no sense to me.

So does future schedule mean anything to you? St John's has to win 4 games to get in. Just looking right now they are a 68% favorite vs Seton Hall. But then they're now a dog to Xavier(49%), 51% vs Georgetown, and 53% @ Marquette. I'm sorry- but to expect this years St John's team to win all of those games- is comical- they've shown nothing to indicate they can do it. You have to look at the entire schedule. You can't just use the concept if the season ended today, because guess what, the season doesn't end today.
Same with UConn. They have 14 wins. They have 3 games left where they are between a 65-85% chance of winning. Give them those 3 and they have 17 wins. They then have 4 games where they are underdog- but look at the percentages- 22%, 41%, 44%, and 37%. If they can get 2 of those 4 games, they are 19-11, and have a very real shot at an at large. If they don't, they won't have a chance- but still they have a whole hell of a lot better chance than if you just look at it in the prism of if the season ended today. In a lot of ways, I'd rather have the UConn situation where they need to get 2 of 3 close to pick'em type games vs St John's, who needs to get 3 of 3 close pick'em type games.

[HoosierPal]

https://aidansbracketology.wordpress.com/

Just to show you how "engaged" some bracketologists are, this one has Seton Hall as a 5 seed, as of yesterday.

[Bill Marsh]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

Agree Bill. Bottom line is that teams need to win games down the stretch to justify their selection. I just get frustrated by the line of thought that looks at RPI Projection sites and use that as Gospel. No one knows for sure what's going to happen--we can only look at current resumes and recognize that everything will be fluid. If the season ended today there is NO way Tulsa gets in and the same can be said for UCONN and FL. Thinking that these team have a much better shot at the tourney at this point in time makes no sense to me.

You've nailed it again.