Bubble Watch

[BEwannabe]

re: X and Stain, I don't recall X being #1 thru 15 RPI last year where VCU has ranked this season and I was way overstating the downside case for the Rams in my previous post because even with a terrible slide they would still pull in about #25 and I think X was in the 40 range which landed them in play in.

Kenyon Martin was hurt in the 1st game UC played in the conference tourney.

[stever20]

re: X and Stain, I don't recall X being #1 thru 15 RPI last year where VCU has ranked this season and I was way overstating the downside case for the Rams in my previous post because even with a terrible slide they would still pull in about #25 and I think X was in the 40 range which landed them in play in.

Kenyon Martin was hurt in the 1st game UC played in the conference tourney.

VCU has to win 1 other game to get #25 RPI besides SLU/GMU. If they only beat SLU/GMU they are about #31 entering the A10 tourney. A loss there and they are 20-12 with roughly a 40 RPI at that point. I frankly don't see how the committee could put them in at that point.

[Gopher+RamFan]

re: X and Stain, I don't recall X being #1 thru 15 RPI last year where VCU has ranked this season and I was way overstating the downside case for the Rams in my previous post because even with a terrible slide they would still pull in about #25 and I think X was in the 40 range which landed them in play in.

Kenyon Martin was hurt in the 1st game UC played in the conference tourney.

VCU has to win 1 other game to get #25 RPI besides SLU/GMU. If they only beat SLU/GMU they are about #31 entering the A10 tourney. A loss there and they are 20-12 with roughly a 40 RPI at that point. I frankly don't see how the committee could put them in at that point.

So you think VCU goes 2-6 (including loss in Conference tourney)? That's the only way they'll even end up near the bubble.

[stever20]

re: X and Stain, I don't recall X being #1 thru 15 RPI last year where VCU has ranked this season and I was way overstating the downside case for the Rams in my previous post because even with a terrible slide they would still pull in about #25 and I think X was in the 40 range which landed them in play in.

Kenyon Martin was hurt in the 1st game UC played in the conference tourney.

VCU has to win 1 other game to get #25 RPI besides SLU/GMU. If they only beat SLU/GMU they are about #31 entering the A10 tourney. A loss there and they are 20-12 with roughly a 40 RPI at that point. I frankly don't see how the committee could put them in at that point.

So you think VCU goes 2-6 (including loss in Conference tourney)? That's the only way they'll even end up near the bubble.

I'm saying that VCU has to win 1 of those other games. If they go 2-6 to end the year, I just don't see the committee having much of a case to take them. I don't think VCU will- but the fact is, it is a possibility right now.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Just from a statistical perspective, Florida is in better shape. I mean, St John's would have to win all 5 of their favored games, with 3 being pretty much pick'em type games..

...And right on queue FLA loses at home to Ole Miss. Tulsa also got smoked by UCONN whose only chance at a tourney bid is winning the AAC conf tourney (which apparently is a foregone conclusion). Two more teams that Stever thought were in better shape than SJU.

Stever no problem being an amateur bracketologists but please enough of the crystal ball definitives. You were certain that FL had a very good chance of winning 7 of 8 even though they've been mediocre all year. Guess what, they're just not very good. Neither is Tulsa. You are running out of other teams to put in front of the BE bubble teams. X is more than fine and if SJU can win the games they are supposed to and grab a game in the BET they too are fine. You know who is no longer fine: Tulsa and FLA. Oops.

[stever20]

Just from a statistical perspective, Florida is in better shape. I mean, St John's would have to win all 5 of their favored games, with 3 being pretty much pick'em type games..

...And right on queue FLA loses at home to Ole Miss. Tulsa also got smoked by UCONN whose only chance at a tourney bid is winning the AAC conf tourney (which apparently is a foregone conclusion). Two more teams that Stever thought were in better shape than SJU.

Stever no problem being an amateur bracketologists but please enough of the crystal ball definitives. You were certain that FL had a very good chance of winning 7 of 8 even though they've been mediocre all year. Guess what, they're just not very good. Neither is Tulsa. You are running out of other teams to put in front of the BE bubble teams. X is more than fine and if SJU can win the games they are supposed to and grab a game in the BET they too are fine. You know who is no longer fine: Tulsa and FLA. Oops.

UConn's only chance is not winning the AAC tourney. If they in their last 7 games go like 5-2 even just say- their RPI entering the AAC tourney would be 53.6, meaning with like 2 wins in the tourney they would probably be safely in. If they go 6-1 to end the year- they would be 20-10 and that's a RPI of 43.1- and that would probably mean just 1 win needed in the tourney. It's hardly any more where UConn has to win the tourney. Pretty much for UConn- beat Tulane, ECU for sure, sweep Memphis, and split with SMU- and they have 5 wins there. All they would need would be to beat Temple last game of the season, and they are in.

And ok, St John's beat DePaul. St John's still needs to win out at home(vs Seton Hall, Xavier, and Georgetown), and then they have to win 1 of the road games. Yeah Seton Hall seems easy now- but Xavier and Georgetown? Nothing changed last night.

[hoyahooligan]

Media is doing their mock selection exercise with the NCAA.

Their S Curve so far has:
Villanova 6; 2 seed
Butler 18; 5 seed
Providence 19; 5 seed
Georgetown 24; 6 seed

So far have only done 1-28 and 46-68

[Bill Marsh]

Media is doing their mock selection exercise with the NCAA.

Their S Curve so far has:
Villanova 6; 2 seed
Butler 18; 5 seed
Providence 19; 5 seed
Georgetown 24; 6 seed

So far have only done 1-28 and 46-68

One thing you can take to the bank is that this year's Georgetown team will be better than a 6-seed when the brackets are announced in March.

[Bearcat_Bounce]

Media is doing their mock selection exercise with the NCAA.

Their S Curve so far has:
Villanova 6; 2 seed
Butler 18; 5 seed
Providence 19; 5 seed
Georgetown 24; 6 seed

So far have only done 1-28 and 46-68

Good respect for the Big East so far. Interesting that Cincinnati is only 4th place in the AAC but is the highest seeded team by the mock committee.

[hoyahooligan]

Here's a link to someone live tweeting it, that's where I got the info, but if there's a better link out there let us know.

https://twitter.com/GeorgeSchroeder

They'll finish the bracket tomorrow.