Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

Huh? The committee definitely takes injuries into account especially if they have a sample size of the team with out that player like they will for VCU.

I always thought they placed teams in or out of the tournament without the injury consideration but they seeded them with injuries considered.

lhttp://www.ncaa.com/content/di-principles-and-procedures-selection/

See Page 5. The committee can use games missed by key players, or any other qualitative, quantitative, or subjective measure for selection, seeding and bracketing.

Your link doesn't work, so I googled the "Principles and Procedures" of selection and scrolled down to page 5, so I think I'm reading what you are referencing. The only relevant statement I can find is in the category of "Additional Considerations":

"Computer models cannot accurately evaluate qualitative factors such as games missed by key players or coaches, travel difficulties, the emotional effects of specific games, etc."

Is this what you're referring to?

I don't see anything in that statement that specifies it's application to selection vs seeding vs bracketing. As a practical matter, spokesmen for various committees in recent years have publicly stated that they do not penalize a team for injuries to players if that team otherwise qualifies based on their overall record of accomplishment. They've also indicated, however, that they do factor in injuries in seeding so that they have the best match ups.

[stever20]

even worst case scenario, VCU rpi will stay around 30 and they will be in the field but as some of you have correctly noted, their seeding will take a hit and rightfully so. But as usual some of you are misguided. VCU stumbling actually opens up a very real possibility for the A10 to add 1 more to the field not 1 less. With their injuries the chances for VCU winning the A10 tourney are greatly diminished, add Dayton only 6 deep their chances would seem to be unlikely to win 3 nights in a row. So unless Dayton stumbles which still is a possibility then the A10 will send 3 for sure and if GW, Rhody, UMASS,LaSalle, or Davidson would go on a win streak to finish the season any 1 of those would be on or inside the bubble.

If VCU's RPI is around 35ish(which it would get down to in a worst case scenario)- I could easily see them passing on VCU. I think I'd expect them to quite frankly.

And how is that going to happen?

Even if VCU loses every road game the rest of the way AND loses it's home game to Dayton AND loses in the first round of the A10 tournament, they still finish 23-8 with a projected RPI of 16.

VCU has 3 road games left. GW, Richmond, and Davidson. Add in the Dayton game and that's 4 more losses, or 10 overall. Takes them down to 21-10, or RPI of 25.1. The worst case scenario would be 1 more loss- presumably a home loss to UMass. That takes them before the conference tourney to 20-11 and RPI around 32. There they would see I think St Bonaventure again, so by the scenario another bad loss. Heck, their RPI could be down to 40.

[stever20]

Just looking at Lunardi's bubble math right now, he's got VCU down to 23 already. If they lose what would be another 6 of 8, yeah it's very possible to see them out.

One thing looking at the bubble math is how much I wish the play in games were not for the at larges but rather the bottom 8 teams.....

just think about this-
67 Colgate vs 68 Texas Southern
65 Sacramento vs 66 No Florida
63 N Dakota St vs 64 St Francis NY
61 NC Central vs 62 La Monroe
would be your 16's

59 High Point vs 60 Albany
57 UC Davis vs 58 New Mexico St
55 William & Mary vs 56 La Tech
53 Iona vs 54 Bowling Green
would be your 15's.

Your 14's this year would be-
52 Green Bay
51 Murray St
50 Harvard
49 Woffard

Your 13's this year would be
48 SF Austin
47 Old Dominion
46 UCLA
45 St John's
(how would you like to be a 4 seed seeing one of those?)

[XUFan09]

Your link doesn't work, so I googled the "Principles and Procedures" of selection and scrolled down to page 5, so I think I'm reading what you are referencing. The only relevant statement I can find is in the category of "Additional Considerations":

"Computer models cannot accurately evaluate qualitative factors such as games missed by key players or coaches, travel difficulties, the emotional effects of specific games, etc."

Is this what you're referring to?

I don't see anything in that statement that specifies it's application to selection vs seeding vs bracketing. As a practical matter, spokesmen for various committees in recent years have publicly stated that they do not penalize a team for injuries to players if that team otherwise qualifies based on their overall record of accomplishment. They've also indicated, however, that they do factor in injuries in seeding so that they have the best match ups.

This was a big deal with Xavier when Matt Stainbrook injured his knee near the end of last season. He luckily only missed one game, but he only averaged 12mpg in the two conference tournament games.

[Bill Marsh]

Your link doesn't work, so I googled the "Principles and Procedures" of selection and scrolled down to page 5, so I think I'm reading what you are referencing. The only relevant statement I can find is in the category of "Additional Considerations":

"Computer models cannot accurately evaluate qualitative factors such as games missed by key players or coaches, travel difficulties, the emotional effects of specific games, etc."

Is this what you're referring to?

I don't see anything in that statement that specifies it's application to selection vs seeding vs bracketing. As a practical matter, spokesmen for various committees in recent years have publicly stated that they do not penalize a team for injuries to players if that team otherwise qualifies based on their overall record of accomplishment. They've also indicated, however, that they do factor in injuries in seeding so that they have the best match ups.

This was a big deal with Xavier when Matt Stainbrook injured his knee near the end of last season. He luckily only missed one game, but he only averaged 12mpg in the two conference tournament games.

There was speculation then too that Xavier would be bypassed because of the injury, but they weren't. They were reduced to a play-in game - probably because of the uncertainties created by Stainbrook's injury - but they did get the bid that their play throughout the season had earned them.

[stever20]

Your link doesn't work, so I googled the "Principles and Procedures" of selection and scrolled down to page 5, so I think I'm reading what you are referencing. The only relevant statement I can find is in the category of "Additional Considerations":

"Computer models cannot accurately evaluate qualitative factors such as games missed by key players or coaches, travel difficulties, the emotional effects of specific games, etc."

Is this what you're referring to?

I don't see anything in that statement that specifies it's application to selection vs seeding vs bracketing. As a practical matter, spokesmen for various committees in recent years have publicly stated that they do not penalize a team for injuries to players if that team otherwise qualifies based on their overall record of accomplishment. They've also indicated, however, that they do factor in injuries in seeding so that they have the best match ups.

This was a big deal with Xavier when Matt Stainbrook injured his knee near the end of last season. He luckily only missed one game, but he only averaged 12mpg in the two conference tournament games.

There was speculation then too that Xavier would be bypassed because of the injury, but they weren't. They were reduced to a play-in game - probably because of the uncertainties created by Stainbrook's injury - but they did get the bid that their play throughout the season had earned them.

The injury wasn't the only reason why they were in the play in game. They had a 47 RPI and a 6-11 record away from home. If Stainback had been healthy and they had lost to Villanova and Creighton, they would have still been in Dayton. Part of that is neutral site losses to Iowa and Tennessee, 2 PIG teams....

[ta111]

I think it depends on when the injury occurred and the extent of the injury. If a player is injured for the rest of the season mid-way through the season, the committee will look to how the team plays after the injury and this could affect both seeding and whether they even get in. However, if a team loses a key player during the last game of the season (think UC and Kenton Martin) the committee will look at the teams entire body of work to determine inclusion, but will take the injury into account for seeding purposes. If the player comes back from the injury early enough in the season, the committee may look to how the team is performing since the player's return as well.

[Gopher+RamFan]

Either way, Treveon Graham is coming back before the end of the season. He's more important than Briante Weber for the Rams.

[Bill Marsh]

I think it depends on when the injury occurred and the extent of the injury. If a player is injured for the rest of the season mid-way through the season, the committee will look to how the team plays after the injury and this could affect both seeding and whether they even get in. However, if a team loses a key player during the last game of the season (think UC and Kenton Martin) the committee will look at the teams entire body of work to determine inclusion, but will take the injury into account for seeding purposes. If the player comes back from the injury early enough in the season, the committee may look to how the team is performing since the player's return as well.

If a team loses a player midway through the season and the team still has the record to be a legit selection despite the loss, it's hard to imagine that they didn't play well over those last 12-15 games. If they hadn't for that significant amount of games, it's hard to imagine that their record would still be good enough.

BTW, I think that Martin went down with about 6 games left in the season.

[stever20]

I think it depends on when the injury occurred and the extent of the injury. If a player is injured for the rest of the season mid-way through the season, the committee will look to how the team plays after the injury and this could affect both seeding and whether they even get in. However, if a team loses a key player during the last game of the season (think UC and Kenton Martin) the committee will look at the teams entire body of work to determine inclusion, but will take the injury into account for seeding purposes. If the player comes back from the injury early enough in the season, the committee may look to how the team is performing since the player's return as well.

If a team loses a player midway through the season and the team still has the record to be a legit selection despite the loss, it's hard to imagine that they didn't play well over those last 12-15 games. If they hadn't for that significant amount of games, it's hard to imagine that their record would still be good enough.

BTW, I think that Martin went down with about 6 games left in the season.

Martin went out in the QF of the conference tourney, a game they lost.