Bubble Watch

[butlerguy03]

The teams that deserve to get in will get in. Simple, no point bitching about it.

+1

Save a few obvious exclusions, maybe 5 since 1985? The committee usually gets it right. If you're close to the bubble, you should've won more.

Seeding is another story. That's why we have so many "upsets." From experience, many years Butler was a 12 or so and clearly were a top 40 team (single digit seeds). Sometimes I wonder if they purposely seed some stronger teams in the double-digits to allow for more upsets and storylines, which the entire tournament is based on.

[Bill Marsh]

The teams that deserve to get in will get in. Simple, no point bitching about it.

+1

Save a few obvious exclusions, maybe 5 since 1985? The committee usually gets it right. If you're close to the bubble, you should've won more.

Seeding is another story. That's why we have so many "upsets." From experience, many years Butler was a 12 or so and clearly were a top 40 team (single digit seeds). Sometimes I wonder if they purposely seed some stronger teams in the double-digits to allow for more upsets and storylines, which the entire tournament is based on.

I suspect that teams from weaker conferences like the Horizon get lower seeds unless they've gone out and beefed up their OOC schedule. It makes sense because no matter how good such teams looked during the regular season, they really haven't been tested against top competition. Giving them a lower seed forces them to prove themselves in the tournament.

As an example, in 2010 when they went to the national finals, Butler played 4 ranked teams OOC and lost to 3 of them. The following year when they went back to the finals, they played only 1 ranked team, lost and then lost 3 other games OOC. It would seem that they still had something to prove in the tournament - which they did!

[shupirate98]

The teams that deserve to get in will get in. Simple, no point bitching about it.

+1

Save a few obvious exclusions, maybe 5 since 1985? The committee usually gets it right. If you're close to the bubble, you should've won more.

Seeding is another story. That's why we have so many "upsets." From experience, many years Butler was a 12 or so and clearly were a top 40 team (single digit seeds). Sometimes I wonder if they purposely seed some stronger teams in the double-digits to allow for more upsets and storylines, which the entire tournament is based on.

I've been an obsessive bracketology nerd for over 20 years. In all that time I believe there has been exactly ONE team which got screwed in being left out of the NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt in 2000. Plenty of other teams that could have, and in my mind many who clearly should have, been in. But all of those other teams didn't do enough to remove all doubt. They gave the committee reason to leave them out and the committee did. There have been some baffling inclusions and exclusions through the years, some years (2003 and 2006 come to mind) the committee did a really lousy job. But other than that one Vanderbilt team no exclusions so egregious as to be completely indefensible.

[HoosierPal]

I've been an obsessive bracketology nerd for over 20 years. In all that time I believe there has been exactly ONE team which got screwed in being left out of the NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt in 2000.

The biggest snub ever has to be the 2006 Missouri State Bears. RPI of 21 and a 20-8 record, left on the sidelines.

[mel ott]

I've been an obsessive bracketology nerd for over 20 years. In all that time I believe there has been exactly ONE team which got screwed in being left out of the NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt in 2000.

The biggest snub ever has to be the 2006 Missouri State Bears. RPI of 21 and a 20-8 record, left on the sidelines.

I believe the Mo State snub was the worst ever. They even had the the film crew for the CBS telecast and announcements for the NCAA picks and showed when the team didn't get in. Barry Hinson and his team, one of my favorite coaches when we were in the Mo Valley, got absolutely screwed.

[shupirate98]

I've been an obsessive bracketology nerd for over 20 years. In all that time I believe there has been exactly ONE team which got screwed in being left out of the NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt in 2000.

The biggest snub ever has to be the 2006 Missouri State Bears. RPI of 21 and a 20-8 record, left on the sidelines.

Hey, I did say the 2006 committee was lousy. And while I definitely had Missouri State in that year I don't feel their snub was egregious. The committee clearly felt the Valley had gamed the RPI system that year and didn't give the teams from that league credit for Top 50 wins that came against each other. If anything was egregious that year it was Air Force getting in, not anybody getting left out.

[mel ott]

I've been an obsessive bracketology nerd for over 20 years. In all that time I believe there has been exactly ONE team which got screwed in being left out of the NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt in 2000.

The biggest snub ever has to be the 2006 Missouri State Bears. RPI of 21 and a 20-8 record, left on the sidelines.

Hey, I did say the 2006 committee was lousy. And while I definitely had Missouri State in that year I don't feel their snub was egregious. The committee clearly felt the Valley had gamed the RPI system that year and didn't give the teams from that league credit for Top 50 wins that came against each other. If anything was egregious that year it was Air Force getting in, not anybody getting left out.

I was in agreement with you and Shupirate98 in thought . However, that year "the committee"- thought the Valley had gamed the system. What a joke of a line. Basically, the Valley went out and on their only chances before the conference season beat the top teams they could play and "helped their RPI". They carried that in to league play. That is exactly what every conference does each year, except they didn't expect the Valley to do that, so they called it " gaming the system". That was BCS conferences protecting their own. Power conferences use RPI and how tough it is game in and game out, but then want to discount RPI when it is a team from outside the BCS.

[stever20]

1 thing today did I think is almost completely eliminate the chance of 7 bids(w/o the BET).

Seton Hall and St John's both have 8 losses. Both if they get to 12 are likely out barring a run in the BET....

The loser of their game is in deep trouble... While the winner is still not out of the woods by any stretch...
Seton Hall- would need 4 wins from Georgetown, Providence, Villanova, Creighton, Providence, and Georgetown. Good luck with that.
St John's would need 5 wins from DePaul, Xavier, Georgetown, Xavier, Georgetown, Marquette, and Villanova. Also good luck with that.

And, if St John's got 2 wins from Xavier in their process-
Xavier would need then 4 wins from Marquette, Cincy, Butler, Villanova, and Creighton. Tough...

Also if you notice Seton Hall and St John's have 2 games each vs Georgetown. That's 4 of the Hoya's final 6 games. We still need 2 more wins at least.

At it again with the old double standard?

You've been repeatedly posting that UConn will win the American because they have home court advantage in the conference tournament, but you don't even mention the possibility of a St. John's win of the BE auto bid with their home court advantage in the conference tournament. Why is that? St. John's has been a stronger team than UConn this year.

Why does 12 losses = "likely out" for either of these teams RPI projects Seton Hall to have 12 losses and still has them as likely in anyway. What do you know that they don't?

If 12 losses are an automatic disqualifier, I guess that means that Michigan State and Florida, who currently project into the tournament with 12+ losses, will also be staying home, right? And who will they be replaced with? Teams like Illinois and LSU with11 losses? The committee will look at nothing else except that one loss?

St John's has won the tourney how many times at their place? Also, what exactly has St John's done? They have a sweep of Providence, and that's really about it.

Michigan St and Florida- look at their RPI at 19-12
Florida 33.1
Michigan St 47.6
a whole hell of a lot better than Seton Hall. Part of that is SOS OOC- Seton Hall is 151, Michigan St is 78 and Florida is 23. Yeah that matters. Each team has the record they need to get to, and for Seton Hall it's 19-11. 18-12 is going to be very fringish for them- would require a win in the BET to have any chance at all of making the tourney. Seton Hall didn't exactly test themselves big time OOC, and it could come back to bite them end of the day.

Also, wouldn't say RPI has Seton Hall anywhere near being about to say as Likely in.

[chuck1991]

I've been an obsessive bracketology nerd for over 20 years. In all that time I believe there has been exactly ONE team which got screwed in being left out of the NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt in 2000.

The biggest snub ever has to be the 2006 Missouri State Bears. RPI of 21 and a 20-8 record, left on the sidelines.

I believe the Mo State snub was the worst ever. They even had the the film crew for the CBS telecast and announcements for the NCAA picks and showed when the team didn't get in. Barry Hinson and his team, one of my favorite coaches when we were in the Mo Valley, got absolutely screwed.

This moment almost made me weep.

[Jet915]

I hate the notion of "gaming the rpi." You get a good rpi by playing and beating good teams on neutral court and on the road period.