Bubble Watch

[stever20]

It's at least 4. UConn has a chance. They would need to go like 6-2 and then win a game or 2 in the tourney.
Temple after today needs to win 5 games- 3 easy games(2 vs ECU, 1 vs Houston, 1 other game, and then 1st rd tourney game).

It's possible that UConn/Temple play each other in the QF, with the winner being a lock.

The A10 is the dumpster fire because they have all the bad teams, but not the top level.
AAC = 36% with RPI better than 40
A10= 14% with RPI better than 40

pretty huge difference there.

VCU is right now not a virtual lock. They looked flimsy vs GMU and lost today. Their tourney case will hinge 100% on how they play after the injuries.

[billyjack]

General comment about ESPN's crappy product...

I'm watching the Gonzaga vs San Francisco game. The Dons have kept it close all game. ESPN has fallen in love with a trivia blurb that a win tonight would be against the highest rated team (#2 Zags) since they beat #3 La Salle in 1955.

But they haven't shown how many opportunities they've had to play a 1-2-or-3 ranked team. Also, since the 1955 win, San Francisco has had 2 national championships (and was the '55 La Salle win in the national final game...? I don't know, because they never told us... wait, i looked it up, and yes it was the nat'l final game... kinda is a key part of their trivia note), plus they had spent a bunch of weeks at #1 themselves back in the late-70's.

So it's a useless factoid that some ESPN genius has latched onto. Clowns.

[stever20]

1 thing today did I think is almost completely eliminate the chance of 7 bids(w/o the BET).

Seton Hall and St John's both have 8 losses. Both if they get to 12 are likely out barring a run in the BET....

The loser of their game is in deep trouble... While the winner is still not out of the woods by any stretch...
Seton Hall- would need 4 wins from Georgetown, Providence, Villanova, Creighton, Providence, and Georgetown. Good luck with that.
St John's would need 5 wins from DePaul, Xavier, Georgetown, Xavier, Georgetown, Marquette, and Villanova. Also good luck with that.

And, if St John's got 2 wins from Xavier in their process-
Xavier would need then 4 wins from Marquette, Cincy, Butler, Villanova, and Creighton. Tough...

Also if you notice Seton Hall and St John's have 2 games each vs Georgetown. That's 4 of the Hoya's final 6 games. We still need 2 more wins at least.

[Gopher+RamFan]

VCU is right now not a virtual lock. They looked flimsy vs GMU and lost today. Their tourney case will hinge 100% on how they play after the injuries.

Well of course their future play matters, but it's not like the team will play below .500 the rest of the year. Team is getting used to playing without their two best players (who happen to be their senior leadership), winning @GMU by 12 without them. 12 point win isn't exactly flimsy, but GMU isn't exactly a good team either. VCU is in barring a meltdown, going 2-6 the rest of the way or worse.

[Bill Marsh]

VCU is right now not a virtual lock. They looked flimsy vs GMU and lost today. Their tourney case will hinge 100% on how they play after the injuries.

Where so you come up with this stuff? This isn't even close to being true. Past committees in recent years have said that injuries are a non-factor for selection. Decisions are based solely on a team's overall record of accomplishments.

Injuries ARE a factor for seeding, but not for selection.

VCU has 5 of their final 8 games at home, including certain wins against St. Louis and George Mason. They favored in all 3 of the others. If the win only 2 of those 3, they'll go 4-4 even if they lose all of their road games. That win leave them at 22-9 with a top 20 RPI. They're as much of a lock for the tournament as there can be.

[Bill Marsh]

1 thing today did I think is almost completely eliminate the chance of 7 bids(w/o the BET).

Seton Hall and St John's both have 8 losses. Both if they get to 12 are likely out barring a run in the BET....

The loser of their game is in deep trouble... While the winner is still not out of the woods by any stretch...
Seton Hall- would need 4 wins from Georgetown, Providence, Villanova, Creighton, Providence, and Georgetown. Good luck with that.
St John's would need 5 wins from DePaul, Xavier, Georgetown, Xavier, Georgetown, Marquette, and Villanova. Also good luck with that.

And, if St John's got 2 wins from Xavier in their process-
Xavier would need then 4 wins from Marquette, Cincy, Butler, Villanova, and Creighton. Tough...

Also if you notice Seton Hall and St John's have 2 games each vs Georgetown. That's 4 of the Hoya's final 6 games. We still need 2 more wins at least.

At it again with the old double standard?

You've been repeatedly posting that UConn will win the American because they have home court advantage in the conference tournament, but you don't even mention the possibility of a St. John's win of the BE auto bid with their home court advantage in the conference tournament. Why is that? St. John's has been a stronger team than UConn this year.

Why does 12 losses = "likely out" for either of these teams RPI projects Seton Hall to have 12 losses and still has them as likely in anyway. What do you know that they don't?

If 12 losses are an automatic disqualifier, I guess that means that Michigan State and Florida, who currently project into the tournament with 12+ losses, will also be staying home, right? And who will they be replaced with? Teams like Illinois and LSU with11 losses? The committee will look at nothing else except that one loss?

[DudeAnon]

The teams that deserve to get in will get in. Simple, no point bitching about it.

[milksteak]

VCU is right now not a virtual lock. They looked flimsy vs GMU and lost today. Their tourney case will hinge 100% on how they play after the injuries.

I hate VCU as much as anyone, but this is a completely ridiculous claim. VCU is a single-digit seed right now. Easily.

[BEwannabe]

While I don't know what metrics stever is using I think he's right.

12 loss Hall is a 56 projected rpi
12 loss John's is a projected 63 rpi

Here are the stats since 2009 for teams with rpis in 50's

50's - just 10 of 42 at-larges got accepted, a rate of 23.7%. There was 1 in 2009, 1 in 2010, 4 in 2011, 2 in 2012, and 2 in 2013.

[Bill Marsh]

While I don't know what metrics stever is using I think he's right.

12 loss Hall is a 56 projected rpi
12 loss John's is a projected 63 rpi

Here are the stats since 2009 for teams with rpis in 50's

50's - just 10 of 42 at-larges got accepted, a rate of 23.7%. There was 1 in 2009, 1 in 2010, 4 in 2011, 2 in 2012, and 2 in 2013.

I don't think it's as simple as that. If you're using RPI Forecast where Seton Hall is a projected 55.5 RPI, that's a statistical median of possible outcomes. Since there are only 49 other teams whose projections are better than that, Seton Hall looks like #50 to me, not #56.

Another factor that has to be taken into account is that this 2015, not 2009-14. This year there are an unusually high 17 projected conference champions ranked in the top 50 projected RPI, which means that to get to 36 at-large bids, they have to go down to #53 RPI. This could change if some auto bids get stolen in conference tournaments, but if this happens in just 3 cases, Seron Hall is still in - at least statistically.

I agree that St. John's is on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but if home court advantage gets them to the conference tournament finals, they're likely in even if they lose in the championship game. Even 2 wins to get them to the semi-finals get them close.