Bubble Watch

[Bill Marsh]

If Xavier had beat Seton Hall, I would argue for them joining the "Should Be In" category. As it is, they need to take care of business on the road better than they have. Winning 2 out of 3 against Marquette, St. John's, and Creighton would be huge (a bad loss to Marquette or Creighton would be offset by a win against St. John's). Winning 1 of 3 on the road but still holding serve at home until Villanova still gets them to 20 wins with a top 10 schedule and multiple good wins; the road record would just be the anchor on their seeding rather than the anchor that pulls them out of the tournament field.

It's almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario in which Xavier doesn't make the field. Even if they lose every road game the rest of the way except Creighton, where a win for them is almost a given, and then go out in the first round of the BE tournament, they should still pass muster with the selection committee.

The Selection Committee, particularly last year, is a big on road performance and performance away from home. This is currently Xavier's Achille's heel. They are 2-6 in true road games and 1-2 in neutral court games. They also have the tougher half of their home schedule up ahead, and going 3-2 at home the rest of the way would really hurt.

In retrospect, I do think I'm underestimating how good a #27 SOS will look.

It's a different committee every year, so hard to say how much of a priority something like road wins will be and whether it outweighs other positives that Xavier has going for them. One thing that has been consistent over a number of different selection committees in recent years is that they stick pretty close to final RPI with few exceptions. Where they have passed over teams who would otherwise qualify based on RPI, it's usually been SOS that's killed a team's chances.

[Edrick]

SOS is MOST of the RPI calculation. It is NEVER appropriate to evaluate teams as if these were separate things. It'd be no different than arguing the general value of a circle and presenting its area and diameter as independent metrics.

SOS is already a part of RPI. If you want to talk about two things and SOS is one of them, the other is simply winning percentage.

ESPN has been doing this idiocy for years

[Bill Marsh]

SOS is MOST of the RPI calculation. It is NEVER appropriate to evaluate teams as if these were separate things. It'd be no different than arguing the general value of a circle and presenting its area and diameter as independent metrics.

SOS is already a part of RPI. If you want to talk about two things and SOS is one of them, the other is simply winning percentage.

ESPN has been doing this idiocy for years

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (00WP * 0.25)

If you think that WP regardless of whom it's achieved against is the same as SOS, then I suppose you have a point.

What's idiocy is the RPI formula itself

[Hall2012]

Well knock another team off the bubble. Syracuse bans itself from post season play. In a year they likely weren't going to qualify anyway...how noble of them.

[stever20]

If Xavier had beat Seton Hall, I would argue for them joining the "Should Be In" category. As it is, they need to take care of business on the road better than they have. Winning 2 out of 3 against Marquette, St. John's, and Creighton would be huge (a bad loss to Marquette or Creighton would be offset by a win against St. John's). Winning 1 of 3 on the road but still holding serve at home until Villanova still gets them to 20 wins with a top 10 schedule and multiple good wins; the road record would just be the anchor on their seeding rather than the anchor that pulls them out of the tournament field.

It's almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario in which Xavier doesn't make the field. Even if they lose every road game the rest of the way except Creighton, where a win for them is almost a given, and then go out in the first round of the BE tournament, they should still pass muster with the selection committee.

Well, I think this statement can now be amended.

[HoosierPal]

It's almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario in which Xavier doesn't make the field. Even if they lose every road game the rest of the way except Creighton, where a win for them is almost a given, and then go out in the first round of the BE tournament, they should still pass muster with the selection committee.

Well, I think this statement can now be amended.

Indeed. At an NCAA RPI 38 today, and 14-9, with a sub .500 conference record, Xavier should be very concerned. They need to go 4-3 thru the rest of the conference and pick off Cincy to stay alive, in my opinion. Their two Top 25 RPI wins may soon be Top 50 wins, if Georgetown stumbles this weekend. 13 loss teams with a sub .500 conference record need lightning in a bottle to make the NCAA.

[stever20]

It's almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario in which Xavier doesn't make the field. Even if they lose every road game the rest of the way except Creighton, where a win for them is almost a given, and then go out in the first round of the BE tournament, they should still pass muster with the selection committee.

Well, I think this statement can now be amended.

Indeed. At an NCAA RPI 38 today, and 14-9, with a sub .500 conference record, Xavier should be very concerned. They need to go 4-3 thru the rest of the conference and pick off Cincy to stay alive, in my opinion. Their two Top 25 RPI wins may soon be Top 50 wins, if Georgetown stumbles this weekend. 13 loss teams with a sub .500 conference record need lightning in a bottle to make the NCAA.

i don't think it matters if they go 4-3 rest of conference and beat cincy or if they go 5-2 rest of conference and lose to Cincy. They need to get 5 more wins period.

[Bill Marsh]

It's almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario in which Xavier doesn't make the field. Even if they lose every road game the rest of the way except Creighton, where a win for them is almost a given, and then go out in the first round of the BE tournament, they should still pass muster with the selection committee.

Well, I think this statement can now be amended.

Indeed. At an NCAA RPI 38 today, and 14-9, with a sub .500 conference record, Xavier should be very concerned. They need to go 4-3 thru the rest of the conference and pick off Cincy to stay alive, in my opinion. Their two Top 25 RPI wins may soon be Top 50 wins, if Georgetown stumbles this weekend. 13 loss teams with a sub .500 conference record need lightning in a bottle to make the NCAA.

Why should an RPI of 38 concern anyone. 16 of the top 50 project as conference champions, which means that to get 36 at-large teams, the committee will have to go down as far as RPI 52. Maybe a few lower ranked teams steal bids with conference tournament upsets, but anyone with an RPI of 38 is in no danger of being threatened by that as long as they continue to play up to the level that earned them that 38 ranking in the first place.

[HoosierPal]

Why should an RPI of 38 concern anyone. 16 of the top 50 project as conference champions, which means that to get 36 at-large teams, the committee will have to go down as far as RPI 52. Maybe a few lower ranked teams steal bids with conference tournament upsets, but anyone with an RPI of 38 is in no danger of being threatened by that as long as they continue to play up to the level that earned them that 38 ranking in the first place.

You are comfortable with X's resume, I'm not. We disagree.

[stever20]

The problem with your logic is that they have to go 5-3 rest of the way to keep the RPI where it is. all along I've said that 19 is the magic number and nothing has changed. Pretty much, they have 6 tough games left, they pretty much must go 3-3 to have a real chance entering the BET- especially considering 4 of those 6 games are home ones- and beat both Marquette and Creighton on the road.