Bubble Watch

[billyjack]

- If Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament and either Wichita State or Northern Iowa wins the Valley tournament, we're now down to 46 teams for 36 at large bids. The number can shrink to as low at 44 competing teams if Old Dominion and BYU take their respective conference tournaments as well.

If you find a way to get Gonzaga and BYU to both win their conference tournament this year, you should also be able to find a way to get all 10 Big East teams into the dance.

Yup, that was dumb. Completely forgot BYU moved to the WCC. Doesn't change much though, just 1 less opportunity for a bid thief.

Yeah, just substitute San Diego State (MWC) for your BYU comment, and your main idea holds.

[stever20]

Not necessarily. MWC has Colorado St in the column. Where it would become a bid theif is if a Wyoming won it.

[gmoser1210]

- If Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament and either Wichita State or Northern Iowa wins the Valley tournament, we're now down to 46 teams for 36 at large bids. The number can shrink to as low at 44 competing teams if Old Dominion and BYU take their respective conference tournaments as well.

If you find a way to get Gonzaga and BYU to both win their conference tournament this year, you should also be able to find a way to get all 10 Big East teams into the dance.

Yup, that was dumb. Completely forgot BYU moved to the WCC. Doesn't change much though, just 1 less opportunity for a bid thief.

I was just meaning to give you some good humored ribbing. Didn't mean to come across like an ass.

[Hall2012]

I was just meaning to give you some good humored ribbing. Didn't mean to come across like an ass.

No offense taken, it was a well deserved ribbing. Lazy mistake on my part.

[DudeAnon]

The funny thing is I'm fine with work to do if it's equal across conferences, and for the most part it is, but looking at the B12 they have several in the should be in category who's resume's are no better than the BE teams'.

Iowa St RPI 12 SOS 22
Baylor RPI 15 SOS 15
WV RPI 20 SOS 87
Oklahoma RPI 24 SOS 18

Butler RPI 17 SOS 16
Georgetown RPI 19 SOS 8
Providence RPI 23 SOS 26
Xavier RPI 25 SOS 13

How are the first 4 Should be in but our 4 work left to do?

part of it is records-
Iowa St 16-5
Baylor 15-5
WV 18-3
Oklahoma at 14-7 most questionable.

No team with 8 losses like Xavier has is going to be should be in category at this point. Especially with the road/neutral record that Xavier has right now(3-8). Xavier absolutely has work to do still.

Doesn't the rpi account for the record? If not what the hell is the rpi supposed to tell us? Also, how is SOS calculated and does it correlate with rpi at all?

[Bill Marsh]

The funny thing is I'm fine with work to do if it's equal across conferences, and for the most part it is, but looking at the B12 they have several in the should be in category who's resume's are no better than the BE teams'.

Iowa St RPI 12 SOS 22
Baylor RPI 15 SOS 15
WV RPI 20 SOS 87
Oklahoma RPI 24 SOS 18

Butler RPI 17 SOS 16
Georgetown RPI 19 SOS 8
Providence RPI 23 SOS 26
Xavier RPI 25 SOS 13

How are the first 4 Should be in but our 4 work left to do?

part of it is records-
Iowa St 16-5
Baylor 15-5
WV 18-3
Oklahoma at 14-7 most questionable.

No team with 8 losses like Xavier has is going to be should be in category at this point. Especially with the road/neutral record that Xavier has right now(3-8). Xavier absolutely has work to do still.

Xavier has the 11th toughest SOS in the country. That matters.

Teams like Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Colorado State, Dayton, and Davidson are headed to the tournament with SOS that isn't even top 100.

Xavier has 7 wins vs the top 50 the 3 of them vs the top 25. Their SOS projects to be top 10 by the end of the season. If they simply continue to maintain their level of play against the rest of their schedule. They really don't need any upsets or "statement wins" to upgrade their resume.

It's an AAC team like Tulsa (SOS: 123) that really has to worry despite the fact that they have only 4 losses. Their problem is that they have only 2 wins against the top 50. They can't afford to drop a quality win in which they're favored the rest of the way. Even worse is the fact that their remaining schedule is a mine field of potential bad losses, any one of which could kill their tournament chances. We saw exactly that happen to SMU last year. A loss to Houston in the conference tournament on top of bad regular season losses to South Florida and Temple killed their tournament chances.

Despite their 8 losses, Xavier has far more margin for error than does a team like Tulsa. Your arbitrary standard of 8 losses would only encourage teams to schedule weak opponents that they are assured of bearing the way that Tulsa has. The committee doesn't want to encourage that's, so they will reward a team like Xavier who has challenged themselves with a tough schedule and who has played well against it.

[XUFan09]

If Xavier had beat Seton Hall, I would argue for them joining the "Should Be In" category. As it is, they need to take care of business on the road better than they have. Winning 2 out of 3 against Marquette, St. John's, and Creighton would be huge (a bad loss to Marquette or Creighton would be offset by a win against St. John's). Winning 1 of 3 on the road but still holding serve at home until Villanova still gets them to 20 wins with a top 10 schedule and multiple good wins; the road record would just be the anchor on their seeding rather than the anchor that pulls them out of the tournament field.

[Bill Marsh]

If Xavier had beat Seton Hall, I would argue for them joining the "Should Be In" category. As it is, they need to take care of business on the road better than they have. Winning 2 out of 3 against Marquette, St. John's, and Creighton would be huge (a bad loss to Marquette or Creighton would be offset by a win against St. John's). Winning 1 of 3 on the road but still holding serve at home until Villanova still gets them to 20 wins with a top 10 schedule and multiple good wins; the road record would just be the anchor on their seeding rather than the anchor that pulls them out of the tournament field.

It's almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario in which Xavier doesn't make the field. Even if they lose every road game the rest of the way except Creighton, where a win for them is almost a given, and then go out in the first round of the BE tournament, they should still pass muster with the selection committee.

[XUFan09]

If Xavier had beat Seton Hall, I would argue for them joining the "Should Be In" category. As it is, they need to take care of business on the road better than they have. Winning 2 out of 3 against Marquette, St. John's, and Creighton would be huge (a bad loss to Marquette or Creighton would be offset by a win against St. John's). Winning 1 of 3 on the road but still holding serve at home until Villanova still gets them to 20 wins with a top 10 schedule and multiple good wins; the road record would just be the anchor on their seeding rather than the anchor that pulls them out of the tournament field.

It's almost impossible for me to imagine a scenario in which Xavier doesn't make the field. Even if they lose every road game the rest of the way except Creighton, where a win for them is almost a given, and then go out in the first round of the BE tournament, they should still pass muster with the selection committee.

The Selection Committee, particularly last year, is a big on road performance and performance away from home. This is currently Xavier's Achille's heel. They are 2-6 in true road games and 1-2 in neutral court games. They also have the tougher half of their home schedule up ahead, and going 3-2 at home the rest of the way would really hurt.

In retrospect, I do think I'm underestimating how good a #27 SOS will look.

[stever20]

Xavier still has to win games. They go 4-5 and enter the BET with a 18-13 record, that's a major problem....Would have to get to the BET SF to make the tourney. SOS is great, but you still have to have the wins.

Bill if Xavier does what you say losing every road game except for Creighton then lose 1st rd of the BET.. That would mean they've won 6 games. If that happens of course they are in. But that's with them beating all of Villanova, Butler, and Providence at home(along with St John's). If they lose 2 of those games, they're 18-14, and that's out of the tourney.

Tulsa's schedule no where near as bad as you think going forward. Only 2 real bad games left(Houston and USF I think). The only other mediocre team is Tulane.