Blind Resume' Tourney Picks

[Hall2012]

So were you looking for an opinion on who's in the best shape going forward or who would be in if the field was selected today. Because they're very different.

If we're looking for who's in the field is selected today, I still do like D the best- the 4 Top 50 wins proves enough, in my opinion, to forgive the 1 horrible loss. Their shape going forward though? Not quite as promising- as you pointed out, 2 of their top 50 wins could easily fall from those ranks. Pick up another sub 150 loss along with that and this resume looks significantly worse.

[GumbyDamnit!]

In this group St John's clearly has the best opportunity over the last few weeks but do have to play DePaul, Creighton and Marquette and rpiforecast predicts a 6-4 finish and a 62 rpi and that's the worst of the group and then there are about 30 other teams above and below St. John's vying for the same space. But this time of year you can find data to support just about any opinion you want to embrace. John's fans will like this 1

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I'm not saying that SJU is on the right side of the bubble at this point. We all know that they put themselves in a tough spot with their bad conference start. All of these teams have to win games to get in. But if they (or X or SHU) find a way to get to .500 in conference, I don't see how they are left out. And I guess the bigger point is that if SJU, GW, Tulsa and Temple all go 6-4 over their last 10 games, SJU's RPI will surely go up b/c it will be against superior teams, while the others have to feel the weight of playing against the ECU, Houston, USF, UCF, St. Bonnies, Fordham type teams. We think the bottom of our league is not up to par? Look at the hot messes at the bottom of some of these other conferences.

[GumbyDamnit!]

So were you looking for an opinion on who's in the best shape going forward or who would be in if the field was selected today. Because they're very different.

If we're looking for who's in the field is selected today, I still do like D the best- the 4 Top 50 wins proves enough, in my opinion, to forgive the 1 horrible loss. Their shape going forward though? Not quite as promising- as you pointed out, 2 of their top 50 wins could easily fall from those ranks. Pick up another sub 150 loss along with that and this resume looks significantly worse.

Well put H'12. I created the topic simply to offer a counter to Stever who stated in regards to AAC bids: "Heck in my scenario I laid out, I could see 5 teams getting in. Tulsa, Temple, SMU, Cincy, and UConn." In that scenario he had UCONN winning the AAC tourney. So I'm guessing he has Tulsa, Temple & Cincy as bubble teams.

I wanted to simply illustrate that if SJU was the BE's 7th best chance of getting a bid, I think their resume' (even today without really getting going in conference) is comparable to those 3 AAC bubble teams, and that they have more opportunity, between now and the tourney, to get quality wins. Stever likes to play devil's advocate when talking about the chances of the BE getting bids, I thought I'd give him a few things to think about.

Actually if Marq or DePaul wins the BE tourney and beats SJU in the finals, maybe we are looking at 8 teams.

[R Jay]

To follow up Gumby, I would argue that Creighton and Marquette would probably be .500 or better, in Marquette's case, in either the AAC or A-10.

[hoyahooligan]

Blind resume time... 5 bubble teams, 2 make it. Which of the following 2 do you think are most deserving:

Team A:
Best win: @ 23
Best non-home win: @23
Vs. RPI Top 50: 2-5
(5,6,7,17,23,23,35)
vs. Top 100: 6-5
Losses vs. RPI 150+: 0

Team B:
Best win: @46
Best non-home win: @46
Vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3
(14, 24, 41, 46)
vs. Top 100: 2-3
Losses vs. RPI 150+: 1 (180)

Team C:
Best win: 1 (H)
Best non-home win: vs. 84 (N)
Vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5
(1,5,6,21,35,43)
vs. Top 100: 3-5
Losses vs. RPI 150+: 1 (156)

Team D:
Best win: 22 (H)
Best non-home win: @ 49
Vs. RPI Top 50: 4-2
(9,22,26,46,48,49)
vs. Top 100: 4-3
Losses vs. RPI 150+: 1 (240)

Team E:
Best win: 14
Best non-home win: 14 (N)
Vs. RPI Top 50: 1-3
(3,9,14,35)
vs. Top 100: 3-6
Losses vs. RPI 150+:0


VERY curious to see your responses Stever.

Responding with out reading the rest of the thread I go

D and A

Only teams with more than 1 top 50 win. Also have the most top 100 wins.

[Hoopfan]

To follow up Gumby, I would argue that Creighton and Marquette would probably be .500 or better, in Marquette's case, in either the AAC or A-10.

I'd also have a multiple million dollars if i bought apple stock 15 years ago

[BEwannabe]

the sample group is so small though as there are at least 50 teams in the bubble mix. 3 of the teams you chose are from the same conference and with Cincinnati losing Sunday all 3 are at risk. St. John's is very talented, as a matter of fact early on I suggested I thought if the stayed healthy they could be 1 of the 2-3 teams that could separate to the top side. But while the Johnnies are talented they lack discipline and this time of year are going to run into teams playing really well, high efficiency offense and playing good team defense. So while I think they have the talent to go 10-0 over their last 10 it's probably going to be closer to .500 and rpi forecast has them going 6-4, rpi projected to be 62.

[Edrick]

There's barely half that many bubble teams right now and it will keep whittling down to 5-10, there's freaking 31 autobids.

[BEwannabe]

1 of the bracketologists I follow has 35 teams either in his bubble watch or in the mix and there are at least 15 other teams he has "in" the field who have to stay out off the bubble so yes there are close to 50 (if that makes you feel better) if not 50 teams in some manner still in play but at any rate considerably more than 25.

[GumbyDamnit!]

the sample group is so small though as there are at least 50 teams in the bubble mix. 3 of the teams you chose are from the same conference and with Cincinnati losing Sunday all 3 are at risk. St. John's is very talented, as a matter of fact early on I suggested I thought if the stayed healthy they could be 1 of the 2-3 teams that could separate to the top side. But while the Johnnies are talented they lack discipline and this time of year are going to run into teams playing really well, high efficiency offense and playing good team defense. So while I think they have the talent to go 10-0 over their last 10 it's probably going to be closer to .500 and rpi forecast has them going 6-4, rpi projected to be 62.

It was a post designed to provide some comparisons between the AAC--whom Stever can foresee as many as 5 making the dance--and the team in the BE recognized as having the most work to do to get in the tourney: SJU. My point: the chances of the AAC & A10 getting 3 bids is about the same as the BE getting 7. Not meant to compare all teams on the bubble. At this point, as you mention, it would be a dubious task considering the # of teams still on the bubble.