Bracketology - January 26, 2015

[stever20]

I think the thing that is funny about that Nova/VCU game wasn't the 3 pt defense for VCU- but rather the 3 pt shooting of VCU. They were 2-17.

I just don't think you could assume that if they play again, that it would be the same result. I mean 19 minutes to go, VCU was up by 4. Very even 1st half.

[stever20]

Here is our's if you're interested. The video podcasts at the top go through each team as the seed list is built. I think the BE has five teams inside the bubble right now, and two more that could end up getting in.

Providence, Georgetown, Villanova, Butler and Saint John's all appear to have at least one out of conference win away from home against a solid tournament team. That's HUGE. Xavier still has a shot at going to Cincinnati. The league is sending at least half to the dance, and chances are it'll be more than that....

http://hoopshd.com/2015/01/30/bracket-p ... uary-30th/

St John's doesn't have an OOC win away from home against a solid NCAA team. Syracuse is hardly a solid NCAA team right now.

[Gopher+RamFan]

I just jumped in to the end of this thread and have a question. We care about VCU why?

99% of the Big East wants to add them. Then there's the 1% like myself that wants HACKOC and VCU's crappy academics to stay in the A-10.

Ill respond to other posts regarding VCUs team later (just bought a tempurpedic and it's calling my name) but VCUs crappy academics (#156 national) are above Louisville/WVU (former BE members) and in the same area as SJU (#145) and Seton Hall (#126). It has the largest student population in the state (32k) , and the 2nd largest endowment among public VA colleges (1.327 Billion, that's about $550 MILLION more than Virginia Tech). By creating a larger alumni base (through more students), and the administration solely focused on Basketball when it comes to AD investment, many are hoping that translates to long term success for our athletics.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I think the thing that is funny about that Nova/VCU game wasn't the 3 pt defense for VCU- but rather the 3 pt shooting of VCU. They were 2-17.

I just don't think you could assume that if they play again, that it would be the same result. I mean 19 minutes to go, VCU was up by 4. Very even 1st half.

Completely nonsensical argument Stever. The flip side to that logic is that since Nova figured out how to attack what VCU was trying to do, and out scored them by 28 over the last 19 minutes, than perhaps the beat down would be worse.

Look I can recognize that VCU has a pretty good team this year. But isn't it ridiculous to even debate if VCU is a better team than Nova when in a face to face match up on a neutral court they lost by 24. Add to that losses to two other legitimate tourney teams, and woefully down year in the A10, and their resume has lost much of its luster. @ Cincy: good win. Will Cincy be a tourney team? No where close to a lock. We played 3 A10 teams this year and won by an avg. of 25 pts. This is who VCU is beating up on and is now the reason why they are puffing out their chests? 2 pt win @ SLU? Impressive.

But you keep doing your job of making sure everyone tempers their high expectations of the BIg East's rightful place in the landscape of college hoops.

[gmoser1210]

I just jumped in to the end of this thread and have a question. We care about VCU why?

99% of the Big East wants to add them.

Finally, I'm a member of the 1%! Too bad it's not the extremely wealthy one.

For the record, it's not that I don't want to add VCU specifically. I don't want to add anyone. This is a basketball conference so I'm perfectly happy staying at 10 members.

[billyjack]

Ok, so if I'm going to be not-that-complimentary about VCU, it's only fair that i talk it through and explain what im thinking in more detail... and i could be wrong on this...

I admittedly haven't seen much of VCU this year... saw them vs Villanova, Oregon, and Rhode Island... i have seen them in the past... they're a great team, but i think they have these problems/ achilles heels, from the little ive seen them (this year and past years)...

- Havoc is vulnerable against teams with (1) multiple good ball handlers, who (2) don't freak out at a frenetic defense. To me, every Big East team can cope with this. In the A-10, and admittedly with many other midrange teams in good conferences, Havoc can work. URI for example, freaked out in the last 5 minutes after leading all game.

...now if Havoc is ineffective, it leads to another problem:

- VCU can't shoot from beyond 15 feet, with the exception of one guy (i forgot his name). So if Havoc can't create turnovers to allow for layups and dunks and fastbreaks, they have to rely on weak shooters in their half court offense (except for that one guy... plus maybe Terry Larrier (top-50 rated) will develop into a great shooter). They can't drive and kick out, because they'd toss up bricks all day. (the 2-for-17 noted in an earlier post vs Villanova isn't an aberration against a good, fundamental team)

...so if they can't shoot from outside, they also can't send it down low because:

- They have one reliable big man, Acie Cox (sp), who isn't the most talented. I think he's there to focus on rebounding. In the A-10 he can be a bruiser. In the Big East, he's no bigger than most BE power forwards, with less skill. So if Havoc can't create turnovers, VCU has to go halfcourt, and they can't feed it down low because Cox isn't that good. On the flipside, if an opponent breaks Havoc, they can feed it down low against Cox and pretty reliably score.

also...

- Generally, VCU doesn't have a lot of muscle... i think they're very athletic and talented, but not wide-bodied. They probably have less muscle than every Big East team. Much of Havoc i think involves bumping and creating contact and loose balls and desperation passes out of traps, while at the same time relying on the refs not calling too many fouls. But in the Big East, having lanky guys bumping you doesn't affect us too much, because BE guards are bigger and stronger and wider, and they're used to bumping and hammering every game anyway.

Again, maybe i need to watch more of them, and maybe I'm not being fair, and maybe watching Havoc is just a pain, and i think the refs should call more fouls on them (similar to watching Louisville... foul your opponent on every possession and bank on the refs only calling 50% of the fouls, right?). The problem is, what if VCU fouls, and the ref doesn't call it, yet the Big East guard is strong enough to withstand the contact? Louisville is physically stronger and wider, so the ball pops free.

I mean, VCU isn't going to bully anyone in the Big East. Funny, in the VCU-Villanova game, in the 2nd half, i think going into the under-16 minute break of a close game, Dan Dakich (jeesh, where did he come from), said (paraphrasing), "can Villanova hang on against the VCU onslaught...!", and I'm thinking "what the (bleep) game is this guy watching?", and "where did they find Dan Dakich..."

Anyway, what I've described above i think is why so many VCU losses (which i admit aren't that many) are dunkfest blowouts. I do love VCU's marketing of "Havoc"... i think it can intimidate some teams just by hearing the name... sorta like the Red Baron getting intangible bonus points just on reputation.

[Westbrook#36]

Villanova relies on the 3 pointer too much, and the biggest improvement in our half-court defense is closing out on shooters. So you can try to beat us inside all you want, it won't be enough to win the game.

We don't have an over reliance on 3's this year if you've watched more than one or two of our games. We can still shoot it, but we're much more about getting it inside to Ochefu and Pinkston or driving to the hoop and getting to the line. But I guess you'll disagree with than also, whatever, tell yourself whatever you what to believe, Nova isn't a good match-up for VCU.

Villanova's 3-point attempts in their last 7 games:

Creighton: 26
Georgetown: 23
Pennsylvania: 18
Xavier: 34!
DePaul: 29
St. John's: 23
Seton Hall: 24

That's not over relying?

No it isn't. For the year 40% of Nova shot attempts are 3's, that means 60% are inside the arc(most of those in the lane). That's not even counting FT attempts. Nova is 54th in the country in 3 pt. attempts, so 53 teams rely on the 3 more then Nova does(including VCU which is 19th). Nova gets 31.7% of it's points from 3's this year, 30.5% of it's points from the foul line, and roughly 37.8% of 2's. So no, we don't over rely on 3's. There has been several games this year where we couldn't buy a 3, yet still won.

The 3 is a major weapon in our arsenal, but we're not dependent on them.

Yes we shoot a significant amount of 3's, but you know what? We also rely on:

Getting the ball inside
Driving to the hoop
Getting to the foul line
Good rebounding
Very good defense
Not turning the ball over

We're not over reliant on anything, we can beat teams lots of ways.

[David HD]

Here is our's if you're interested. The video podcasts at the top go through each team as the seed list is built. I think the BE has five teams inside the bubble right now, and two more that could end up getting in.

Providence, Georgetown, Villanova, Butler and Saint John's all appear to have at least one out of conference win away from home against a solid tournament team. That's HUGE. Xavier still has a shot at going to Cincinnati. The league is sending at least half to the dance, and chances are it'll be more than that....

http://hoopshd.com/2015/01/30/bracket-p ... uary-30th/

St John's doesn't have an OOC win away from home against a solid NCAA team. Syracuse is hardly a solid NCAA team right now.

No, they're not. You're right. So, that was a bad example, but I still think my point was valid. Lots of teams had notable OOC wins away from home. Probably a better way of putting it.

[Westbrook#36]

How many Big East teams would have gone 7-3 vs top 100 teams right now, like what VCU has done? With all being actually top 75. Right now, the VCU SOS is #2 in the country. It's not like they have played all terrible teams except for the losses.

Yep, any doubt I have of you being a A-10/AAC homer/puppet is gone. For a couple of seasons now I've given you the benefit of the doubt, no more. You can call yourself a BE fan if you want, but I don't think anyone else on this board does.

BTW looking at VCU schedule, I'm guessing those 7 wins are Tenn., Oregon, UNI, Cinn., Davidson, Rhode Island, and GW. Impressive list, ... not.

[Westbrook#36]

What's really funny about questioning if Nova is too reliant on the 3 is when you find out that VCU attempts more 3's per game than Nova does. But don't let that little fact get in the way of your solid hoops knowledge.

I never said we didn't, did I? But we guard the 3 better than 'Nova does at this point, and I like the match-up with them. And we're better at scoring in other ways than in December. I'm not saying don't take the 3 when you get open looks, as we have, but 'Nova showed against GT that they tend to get desperate with the 3's. I saw them take a lot of contested 3's against GT.

Really??? This just in, Nova ranked 23rd in the country in 3 pt. defense, VCU 199th. Keep listening to those voices in your head telling you VCU is the better team, the rest of us know better. You know I think I've heard all this stuff somewhere before, oh yeah that's right, I heard all this ish on the VCU board right before we curb stomped your asses this year.