Big East's NCAA doomsday scenario

[Freshjive2103]

I am not so sure that there are a bunch of locks in the Big East. So much is based upon assuming that Seton Hall, St. John's, and Xavier will finish the year strong. Everyone assumed that DePaul would just suck (even DePaul fans thought that). It also assumes that the automatic bids from conferences go to worthy teams. When it goes to a bubble team, or even a team that is far away from the bubble, decisions get made and teams get left off.

What happens if Marquette makes a little run in the next five games and takes both games from Seton Hall? Mr Bubbles comes calling for the Pirates. If Creighton gets a few wins, conference bids start to look shaky.

[HoosierPal]

When you start talking about NCAA bids, and it's never too early, you need to look at the big picture. Which leagues are doing well and which aren't. The SEC, last year's dog, has 6 to 7 teams that still have a shot at the tourney. That is up from last year. The Big 12 and ACC also have 6 to 7. Big Ten, maybe 6, A-10 maybe 4, AAC 3 or 4, Valley 2 and MW 2. The Big East still has 7 in the hunt, but all these conferences won't get in all of these teams. You can't compare Xaiver and St. Johns and say the winner of their two games might decide who gets in. It might or it might not. The NCAA Committee does not allocate bids based on conference.

Looking at RPI Forecast SEC is only projected to have 3 teams with top 50 RPIs. They'll have a bunch from 51-100, but I think they only get 3bids, 4 bids max.
ACC has 7(5)
B12 has 7(6)
BE has 7 (5)
B10 has 6 (3)
A10 has 4 (2)
P12 has 4 (2)
WCC has 3(1)
AAC has 3(2)
SEC has 3 (1)
MVC has 2(2)
MWC has 2(1)
CUSA has 1(0)
MAC has 1(0)

obviously not all the top 50 make it in so leagues aren't going to get all of these bids. The number in parenthesis is the ones in the top 30 who are safe)

Your numbers are nice. Mine are too. Anyone in the Top 50 RPI today has to be in the NCAA tourney discussion.

The SEC has 6 teams in the Top 50 RPI plus Alabama lurking at 53. To say only 3 of those will make it, well, I'd put my money on the over. ALL I'm saying, is that the SEC still has 7 in play. I'm not saying all 7 get in. [BTW, I'm not fond of the SEC and I would be happy to see them get only one bid. I'm just reading the tea leaves.] I doubt if the Forecaster picked DePaul last night. Just saying it can't see the future any better than you or I.

[Boyee]

I am a DePaul fan and alumnus. I think the Big East will get 5 or 6 teams in. I think DePaul might make the NIT. The losses to Lehigh, Illinois State, Ohio, and Loyola Marymount really hurt them.

[MackNova]

Big East doomsday scenario is Villanova winning out and DePaul, Creighton and Marquette getting in the mix with some wins.

Right now, KenPom projects:

Nova: 13-5
GTown: 11-7
Butler: 11-7
Providence: 10-8
Xavier: 10-8
Seton Hall: 9-9
St. John's: 8-8
DePaul: 8-10
Marquette: 6-12
Creighton: 3-15

Give DePaul, Marquette and Creighton another win or two and taking away Nova's losses would really put the squeeze on that middle tier. If Nova runs the table and DePaul, Marquette and Creighton each win 1 more game than the above projection, that would leave 54 wins and 54 losses to split up for the rest of the league.. The league is good enough where 9-9 will get in (except the bottom 3), but you don't want to risk 8-10 or worse.

Best case scenario for getting the most bids: DePaul, Marquette and Creighton don't beat anyone the rest of the year except each other.

[MUPanther]

It's not even half way thru the conference season and it's not even February, don't worry about bids yet.

As a Marquette fan we are not lying down. Four road loses in the final seconds hurts, but we still have goals as a winning program. We are one season removed from three straight Sweet 16 an a Elite 8 and Big East Championship season.

[gosports1]

[quote="Omaha1"]After a pretty strong non-conference season which drew the attention of the national basketball media, the conference season is not playing out well for the Big East. I'm not here to hate on DePaul so don't take it that way. But teams that looked like NCAA teams - SJU and Seton Hall - now could be in trouble. Who know if Providence or Xavier will perform at times. I don't think Marquette, DePaul or Creighton have any chance to receive an at large.

We've discussed here how the league could maybe get 7 teams in the NCAA tournament. Is there a way that we only get 3? or maybe 4? If I was betting based on what I've seen, Nova, Butler, and GTown look good. After that, it get's uncertain.[/quote


Stever, did you move to Omaha?

[stever20]

After a pretty strong non-conference season which drew the attention of the national basketball media, the conference season is not playing out well for the Big East. I'm not here to hate on DePaul so don't take it that way. But teams that looked like NCAA teams - SJU and Seton Hall - now could be in trouble. Who know if Providence or Xavier will perform at times. I don't think Marquette, DePaul or Creighton have any chance to receive an at large.

We've discussed here how the league could maybe get 7 teams in the NCAA tournament. Is there a way that we only get 3? or maybe 4? If I was betting based on what I've seen, Nova, Butler, and GTown look good. After that, it get's uncertain.[/quote


Stever, did you move to Omaha?

No, I swear I haven't

[Jet915]

Worst case scenario is 5, best is 7 IMO.

[ivet]

What's with the mid major mentality? Why the hell are new guys bringing this crap to the Big East? It's been like this for years. We've end up cannibilizimg each other during conference play all the time. Leave that thinking behind you or go back to the A10 or MVC, that's all those boards talk about. Heck the AAC board is like that right now. We're about bringing tough teams that can make a deep run not how many we can send. If we send 7 and 6 get eliminated the first round then that's not exactly going to do wonders for our conference. I'd rather send 4 teams that have a good chance at making an Elite 8 or Final Four run.

[MackNova]

More teams in the dance=more teams with a chance to make the 2nd weekend. It's possible if the Big East doesn't make the 2nd weekend for the 2nd straight year. It's also possible Villanova gets there, Providence and Georgetown win their 1st-round games and get good 2nd-round draws, while Xavier pulls 2 lower-seeded "upsets" and we get 4/ in the Sweet 16.

Tournament success is largely luck of the draw. I would like to have as many teams in that lottery as possible.