Big East's NCAA doomsday scenario

[Omaha1]

After a pretty strong non-conference season which drew the attention of the national basketball media, the conference season is not playing out well for the Big East. I'm not here to hate on DePaul so don't take it that way. But teams that looked like NCAA teams - SJU and Seton Hall - now could be in trouble. Who know if Providence or Xavier will perform at times. I don't think Marquette, DePaul or Creighton have any chance to receive an at large.

We've discussed here how the league could maybe get 7 teams in the NCAA tournament. Is there a way that we only get 3? or maybe 4? If I was betting based on what I've seen, Nova, Butler, and GTown look good. After that, it get's uncertain.

[RedStormHoops]

Providence will get in. Notre dame win turned out to be huge same with Miami win and now they are fine in conference at 5-2.

Seton Hall is certainly still in, and although their fans might be upset right now whitehead will provide a huge offensive lift and they should win plenty of games to finish out the year and they will make it.

St. John's and Xavier are on the bubble. In fact the two games between SJU/X might decide which team gets the nod from the committee. Would like if they both found a way to get in.

[stever20]

Providence will get in. Notre dame win turned out to be huge same with Miami win and now they are fine in conference at 5-2.

Seton Hall is certainly still in, and although their fans might be upset right now whitehead will provide a huge offensive lift and they should win plenty of games to finish out the year and they will make it.

St. John's and Xavier are on the bubble. In fact the two games between SJU/X might decide which team gets the nod from the committee. Would like if they both found a way to get in.

Seton Hall maybe right this second in, but has to go 6-6 rest of the way to feel good. Part of them is schedule- Home games left with Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown, Creighton, and Providence(so only 5 games)- and away games with Butler, Marquette, DePaul, Providence, Nova, St John's, and Georgetown. Ken Pom has them projected to win all 5 home games and then @ DePaul. They are totally on the bubble right now....

I don't think any chance we get 3 in. 4 would take some major things- like Seton Hall going say 5-7 or 4-8 rest of the way, along with St John's and Xavier losing their last OOC game(to Duke/Cincy respectively) and then not tearing it up in conference play. The one good thing about us only getting 4 would be the 4 that got in would be much higher seeded- as there would be some seperation from top 4 to rest of conference.

[HoosierPal]

When you start talking about NCAA bids, and it's never too early, you need to look at the big picture. Which leagues are doing well and which aren't. The SEC, last year's dog, has 6 to 7 teams that still have a shot at the tourney. That is up from last year. The Big 12 and ACC also have 6 to 7. Big Ten, maybe 6, A-10 maybe 4, AAC 3 or 4, Valley 2 and MW 2. The Big East still has 7 in the hunt, but all these conferences won't get in all of these teams. You can't compare Xaiver and St. Johns and say the winner of their two games might decide who gets in. It might or it might not. The NCAA Committee does not allocate bids based on conference.

[stever20]

When you start talking about NCAA bids, and it's never too early, you need to look at the big picture. Which leagues are doing well and which aren't. The SEC, last year's dog, has 6 to 7 teams that still have a shot at the tourney. That is up from last year. The Big 12 and ACC also have 6 to 7. Big Ten, maybe 6, A-10 maybe 4, AAC 3 or 4, Valley 2 and MW 2. The Big East still has 7 in the hunt, but all these conferences won't get in all of these teams. You can't compare Xaiver and St. Johns and say the winner of their two games might decide who gets in. It might or it might not. The NCAA Committee does not allocate bids based on conference.

Exactly. Also, you have to take into account the bid theives from other conferences. Say ODU doesn't win CUSA, they still could get in at large. If a Wyoming or a New Mexico wins the MWC they would get 3 in. There are other examples where it reduces the number of bids.

[RedStormHoops]

When you start talking about NCAA bids, and it's never too early, you need to look at the big picture. Which leagues are doing well and which aren't. The SEC, last year's dog, has 6 to 7 teams that still have a shot at the tourney. That is up from last year. The Big 12 and ACC also have 6 to 7. Big Ten, maybe 6, A-10 maybe 4, AAC 3 or 4, Valley 2 and MW 2. The Big East still has 7 in the hunt, but all these conferences won't get in all of these teams. You can't compare Xaiver and St. Johns and say the winner of their two games might decide who gets in. It might or it might not. The NCAA Committee does not allocate bids based on conference.

It's ok, not everyone learns reading conprehension in school. You'll get there

[stever20]

For you saying that Seton Hall is still a guaranteed in- I give you their RPI...

Going into this week, their RPI was #17...

After last night's home loss to DePaul, their RPI is 40.

Just shows how much home losses hurt you. And why it's tough to call them still a guaranteed in.

[TheBall]

Starting to look like a 5 bid league is likely.

Nova, butler, georgetown, providence and seton hall are all in good shape at this point. At this point I would be surprised to see any of these 5 miss the dance.

Xavier and the johnnies are in some trouble, but one or both can still make it. 50/50 on either of them.

The depaul development is bad, but what can you do? They aren't supposed to just roll over, and it is kind of nice to see them playing well. Just real unfortunate they didn't play with the same effort in December.

[ArmyVet]

Let's just say the league results haven't been terribly beneficial to the cause. That said, Jerry Palm still has 7 in although two are 11 seeds so basically no room for error.

[hoyahooligan]

When you start talking about NCAA bids, and it's never too early, you need to look at the big picture. Which leagues are doing well and which aren't. The SEC, last year's dog, has 6 to 7 teams that still have a shot at the tourney. That is up from last year. The Big 12 and ACC also have 6 to 7. Big Ten, maybe 6, A-10 maybe 4, AAC 3 or 4, Valley 2 and MW 2. The Big East still has 7 in the hunt, but all these conferences won't get in all of these teams. You can't compare Xaiver and St. Johns and say the winner of their two games might decide who gets in. It might or it might not. The NCAA Committee does not allocate bids based on conference.

Looking at RPI Forecast SEC is only projected to have 3 teams with top 50 RPIs. They'll have a bunch from 51-100, but I think they only get 3bids, 4 bids max.
ACC has 7(5)
B12 has 7(6)
BE has 7 (5)
B10 has 6 (3)
A10 has 4 (2)
P12 has 4 (2)
WCC has 3(1)
AAC has 3(2)
SEC has 3 (1)
MVC has 2(2)
MWC has 2(1)
CUSA has 1(0)
MAC has 1(0)

obviously not all the top 50 make it in so leagues aren't going to get all of these bids. The number in parenthesis is the ones in the top 30 who are safe)