Bracketology - January 19, 2015

[Omaha1]

Dayton hasn't won a single game against a tournament team. How many Big East teams would be 15-2 against their schedule?

And right on cue the Fylers get hammered by Davidson.

what a story Davidson is becoming this year. 13-4 now with only 3 road losses and a neutral site loss to UNC. They are going to rack up 23 or 24 wins and be easily in the tourney.

Stever, you are such an A10 lover it's almost unbearable. You make wild claims about what the BigEast needs to do to get teams dancing then say things like this. Look at Davidson's schedule (or Dayton's) and tell me who they have beaten, I did and honestly don't think there's a single team either school has beaten that are definitely NCAA tournament teams. Not one between 2 schools! When the committee looks at the resumes, they are going to be pretty empty when it comes to meaningful victories.

[billyjack]

continuing on Omaha1's point...

DAVIDSON:
So far, their results have been:
non-conference:
W Campbell - 306.
L North Carolina - 12.
W Central Florida - 195.
W Unc-Wilmington - 156.
W Charlotte - 137.
W Stetson - 348.
W Montana - 231.
W Niagara - 294.
W Charleston - 236.
L Virginia - 3.

in A-10 games:
W Richmond - 71.
L VCU - 4.
W Saint Louis - 200.
W UMass - 61.
L Richmond - 71.
W Dayton - 28.

Besides having beaten no one OOC, Davidson is also screwed because of their next 6 conference games:
vs:
George Mason - 169.
St Joe's - 174.
St Bonaventure - 172.
Duquesne - 248.
George Mason - 169.
La Salle - 106.

It's like having a millstone tied to their neck...
Just showing up in the gym for each of these games will cause their RPI to worsen.
If they win, their RPI worsens.
If they lose, then they're really screwed.

following La Salle they play:
Geo Washington - 46.
Fordham - 251.
Rhode Island - 74.
Geo Washington - 46.
VCU - 4.
Duquesne - 248.

If they're lucky, they'll finish the regular season with an RPI in the high 50's or low 60's.
It's the same problem Tulsa faces.
No way either of these teams bumps St John's off the bubble.

[stever20]

One thing- was listening to Andy Katz on ESPN(his daily 3 point shot that he does)- he said that Lavin himself said that St John's needs to get to 20 wins to have a shot(that's 19 wins plus the 1 D2 win). Lavin also said that they need another good road win, which is very fair as well- right now they have Syracuse and Providence, and that's it. Katz said how huge of a week it is for St John's....

(also on that, Katz was very complimentary on Georgetown after Butler/Nova combo).

[BEwannabe]

I think this propeller head has a little bit more data on his side than billyjack and he has Davidson rpi forecast as 32. Davidson was an absolute buzzsaw last night against a Flyer team short on rest & personnel. 3rd game in 6 days for a 7 scholarship roster and 1 of those nursing an injury. But not to take anything away from Davidson last night though because they were outstanding in every sense of the word. Trust me you don't want your teams name to come up in the NCAA brackets opposite the Wildcats. Their offense is primo, good high iq personnel that have bought into a great offensive scheme. They remind me of some of Butler's better offensive teams.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/A10.html

[billyjack]

I think this propeller head has a little bit more data on his side than billyjack and he has Davidson rpi forecast as 32. Davidson was an absolute buzzsaw last night against a Flyer team short on rest & personnel. 3rd game in 6 days for a 7 scholarship roster and 1 of those nursing an injury. But not to take anything away from Davidson last night though because they were outstanding in every sense of the word. Trust me you don't want your teams name to come up in the NCAA brackets opposite the Wildcats. Their offense is primo, good high iq personnel that have bought into a great offensive scheme. They remind me of some of Butler's better offensive teams.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/A10.html

If Davidson handles us the way they handled Stetson, then we'll be in big trouble, cuz they made the Hatters their *****.

[FormulaX]

I think this propeller head has a little bit more data on his side than billyjack and he has Davidson rpi forecast as 32. Davidson was an absolute buzzsaw last night against a Flyer team short on rest & personnel. 3rd game in 6 days for a 7 scholarship roster and 1 of those nursing an injury. But not to take anything away from Davidson last night though because they were outstanding in every sense of the word. Trust me you don't want your teams name to come up in the NCAA brackets opposite the Wildcats. Their offense is primo, good high iq personnel that have bought into a great offensive scheme. They remind me of some of Butler's better offensive teams.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/A10.html

If Davidson handles us the way they handled Stetson, then we'll be in big trouble, cuz they made the Hatters their *****.

Saw Davidson was missing their best player and their big was in foul trouble early. That rpi forecast of 32 is if Davidson only loses 3 more games!

[stever20]

I think this propeller head has a little bit more data on his side than billyjack and he has Davidson rpi forecast as 32. Davidson was an absolute buzzsaw last night against a Flyer team short on rest & personnel. 3rd game in 6 days for a 7 scholarship roster and 1 of those nursing an injury. But not to take anything away from Davidson last night though because they were outstanding in every sense of the word. Trust me you don't want your teams name to come up in the NCAA brackets opposite the Wildcats. Their offense is primo, good high iq personnel that have bought into a great offensive scheme. They remind me of some of Butler's better offensive teams.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/A10.html

If Davidson handles us the way they handled Stetson, then we'll be in big trouble, cuz they made the Hatters their *****.

Saw Davidson was missing their best player and their big was in foul trouble early. That rpi forecast of 32 is if Davidson only loses 3 more games!

With their remaining schedule, 9-3 seems almost like a floor. They have 4 games left with RPI better than 100.

[stever20]

continuing on Omaha1's point...

DAVIDSON:
So far, their results have been:
non-conference:
W Campbell - 306.
L North Carolina - 12.
W Central Florida - 195.
W Unc-Wilmington - 156.
W Charlotte - 137.
W Stetson - 348.
W Montana - 231.
W Niagara - 294.
W Charleston - 236.
L Virginia - 3.

in A-10 games:
W Richmond - 71.
L VCU - 4.
W Saint Louis - 200.
W UMass - 61.
L Richmond - 71.
W Dayton - 28.

Besides having beaten no one OOC, Davidson is also screwed because of their next 6 conference games:
vs:
George Mason - 169.
St Joe's - 174.
St Bonaventure - 172.
Duquesne - 248.
George Mason - 169.
La Salle - 106.

It's like having a millstone tied to their neck...
Just showing up in the gym for each of these games will cause their RPI to worsen.
If they win, their RPI worsens.
If they lose, then they're really screwed.

following La Salle they play:
Geo Washington - 46.
Fordham - 251.
Rhode Island - 74.
Geo Washington - 46.
VCU - 4.
Duquesne - 248.

If they're lucky, they'll finish the regular season with an RPI in the high 50's or low 60's.
It's the same problem Tulsa faces.
No way either of these teams bumps St John's off the bubble.

The problem is you don't know how the RPI works. It would take like 6 losses for Davidson to finish with a RPI in the high 50's/low 60's. With the schedule they have- the floor is 4 losses. It's similar to us in that we don't get hurt much by playing DePaul/Creighton/Marquette.

Part of Davidson is the fact they are 8-1 on home floor and 4-3 away. So right now their RPI record is 10.4-3.2. .765. Better than their D1 record of 12-4. Compare that to St John's right now- 8-3 at home, 2-2 on the road, and 1-0 neutral. that's 8.4-5.4. Their own winning percentage is .608 which is worse than their D1 record of 11-5 or .688. That's a HUGE difference- and why St John's is 7 spots behind Davidson right now in the RPI, despite having a SOS of 24, compared to Davidson at 78. Your own record counts 25% to RPI.

[Omaha1]

The problem is you don't know how the RPI works. It would take like 6 losses for Davidson to finish with a RPI in the high 50's/low 60's. With the schedule they have- the floor is 4 losses. It's similar to us in that we don't get hurt much by playing DePaul/Creighton/Marquette.

Part of Davidson is the fact they are 8-1 on home floor and 4-3 away. So right now their RPI record is 10.4-3.2. .765. Better than their D1 record of 12-4. Compare that to St John's right now- 8-3 at home, 2-2 on the road, and 1-0 neutral. that's 8.4-5.4. Their own winning percentage is .608 which is worse than their D1 record of 11-5 or .688. That's a HUGE difference- and why St John's is 7 spots behind Davidson right now in the RPI, despite having a SOS of 24, compared to Davidson at 78. Your own record counts 25% to RPI.

The problem is stever.. period. You act like these numbers and rankings are in a vaccuum. They're not. Plenty will happen so don't act like your opinion is gospel. Creighton got left out of the NCAA tournament a few years ago with 26 wins. Missouri State had an RPI of 21 and was left out. Davidson and Dayton have zero wins of significance between them not including beating each other. A couple of losses to dregs like Fordham or SLU could kill their at large chances.

[DudeAnon]

I watched a bit of the Dayton Davidson game. Davidson was not impressive at all. They were absolutely on fire from 3 and Dayton just playing sloppy. I haven't watched much A-10 so I don't know the other teams, but Davidson is not good.