UConn escape plan - The Big East

[GoldenWarrior11]

A lot of fans seem to think that UConn will have an opportunity to get into either the ACC or the Big 10. Both are very unrealistic within the next 10 years. UConn is not an AAU member, and is a looooonng time from being considered one, and their football program is so poor that schools like FSU, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College et all, will not risk further diluting an already weak football conference. Let's remember, there were serious discussions that FSU may not even get one of the 4 CFP spots, despite being undefeated, because the schedule was so poor (mostly due to conference schedule).

With each passing day, UConn's basketball programs (men's and women's) suffer being in the American conference. That is a fact, despite what fans/alumni from some of the other schools in the conference will tell you. Schools like Tulane, East Carolina, UCF, USF, Houston, SMU and Tulsa are bringing down the basketball prestige and history that the school (namely Jim Calhoun) spent decades building up. They are in a lose/lose scenario. If they beat these schools in basketball, analysts just say they are weak teams and that the Huskies need to play tougher competition. If they lose (like to Tulsa last week), analysts say that their basketball program is suffering by losing to weaker schools. There is no win in this situation for them in basketball. They won the freggin' NCAA Championship last year, and no one even talks about it because of their conference affiliation.

Personally, I would rank Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and USF as schools that are next in line to get a P5 invite. They all offer more, in terms of football, media markets and recruiting areas. UConn is 5th, maybe 6th or 7th, if you throw in schools like Colorado State, Boise State and/or San Diego State.

I'm not Val Ackermann, but, in my opinion, the only way I consider inviting UConn back into the conference is if they ditch their football program completely (dropping down to FCS or altogether), and they put in writing that they would not consider restarting again for at least 20 years. UConn has put way too much money into football as it is already, so I don't think there's a chance we see UConn return. They have made their bed, now it's time for them to sleep in it.

[gtmoBlue]

Time to let hopes of adding UConn go. If Memphis and Cincy get "called up" to the F5/P5, UConn's plan is sunk and they will be mired in AAC quicksand. If they want to dream of football glory - let them. UConn will persist in their football quest until the bitter end. With further P5 shuffling, they may eventually get to a raided ACC, but the ACC will not be a part of the football playoff most years, if any. Good luck to the Huskies.

When it is time for BE expansion the league should be looking at Gonzaga, Temple, VCU, ND (partial Mbr of ACC) or a private F5/P5 football castoff (marginal football school) who can't afford the P5 spending sprees (as mentioned by someone earlier WF, Vandy, and similar universities). If the ACC is not part of the football playoff equation, one can expect ND to move (probably to the B1G), as they view themselves as elite. When the B1G raids the ACC there will be a couple of disgruntled marginal football schools who may have interest in leaving.

[Frank the Tank]

To be fair, UConn was THISCLOSE to getting into the ACC. When a school is that close, you simply have no choice but to continue to bet chips on football even if it's unlikely that there will be much any expansion in the ACC or Big Ten (who are in the only plausible P5 options of UConn, with the Big 12 being such a huge longshot due to geography and culture). There's such a huge difference between being in the P5 versus being outside of it when it comes to money, exposure and autonomy that a school in the position of UConn (where they at least have a plausible *chance* to make it into P5) has to ride the football train until it's completely clear that they are 100% going to be on the outside looking in forever (and that day might not ever come). Now, a lot of UConn fans might be a bit delusional in thinking that they're some type of lock for a power conference in the near future - that certainly isn't the case. However, by the same token, UConn also isn't some directional school with zero chance of getting into a P5 league that's completely lying to itself. If a power conference decides to expand, UConn is one of the schools that's on the plausible short list, and that's more than enough to continue to expend resources on football (as once again, you have no choice when you've come that far).

A school like UMass is quite different. They are decades away from power conference consideration even in the best case scenario, so you could argue that FBS football is a costly pipe dream that's holding them back from maximizing their potential in basketball (which is more realistic).

[notkirkcameron]

UConn (where they at least have a plausible *chance* to make it into P5) has to ride the football train until it's completely clear that they are 100% going to be on the outside looking in forever (and that day might not ever come). Now, a lot of UConn fans might be a bit delusional in thinking that they're some type of lock for a power conference in the near future - that certainly isn't the case. However, by the same token, UConn also isn't some directional school with zero chance of getting into a P5 league that's completely lying to itself. If a power conference decides to expand, UConn is one of the schools that's on the plausible short list, and that's more than enough to continue to expend resources on football (as once again, you have no choice when you've come that far).

It is worth pointing out that since 2003, the Power 5 conferences have added 15 members for expansion
Miami to the ACC
Virginia Tech to the ACC
Nebraska to the Big Ten
Colorado to the Pac-12
Utah to the Pac-12
Texas A&M to the SEC
Missouri to the SEC
West Virginia to the Big 12
Syracuse to the ACC
Pittsburgh to the ACC
Notre Dame to the ACC
Maryland to the Big Ten
Rutgers to the Big Ten
TCU to the Big 12
Louisville to the ACC

In other words, the Power 5 Football Conferences had 15 opportunities since 2003 to add UConn and they all declined each time. Sure, they may not have been a logical choice to some leagues geographically, but remember, we are living in an era where Missouri is the SEC, West Virginia is in the Big 12, and Rutgers and Maryland are in the Big 10. UConn is investing hundreds of millions of dollars into FBS football and is basically being told "Don't call us. We'll call you."

[Frank the Tank]

UConn (where they at least have a plausible *chance* to make it into P5) has to ride the football train until it's completely clear that they are 100% going to be on the outside looking in forever (and that day might not ever come). Now, a lot of UConn fans might be a bit delusional in thinking that they're some type of lock for a power conference in the near future - that certainly isn't the case. However, by the same token, UConn also isn't some directional school with zero chance of getting into a P5 league that's completely lying to itself. If a power conference decides to expand, UConn is one of the schools that's on the plausible short list, and that's more than enough to continue to expend resources on football (as once again, you have no choice when you've come that far).

It is worth pointing out that since 2003, the Power 5 conferences have added 15 members for expansion
Miami to the ACC
Virginia Tech to the ACC
Nebraska to the Big Ten
Colorado to the Pac-12
Utah to the Pac-12
Texas A&M to the SEC
Missouri to the SEC
West Virginia to the Big 12
Syracuse to the ACC
Pittsburgh to the ACC
Notre Dame to the ACC
Maryland to the Big Ten
Rutgers to the Big Ten
TCU to the Big 12
Louisville to the ACC

In other words, the Power 5 Football Conferences had 15 opportunities since 2003 to add UConn and they all declined each time. Sure, they may not have been a logical choice to some leagues geographically, but remember, we are living in an era where Missouri is the SEC, West Virginia is in the Big 12, and Rutgers and Maryland are in the Big 10. UConn is investing hundreds of millions of dollars into FBS football and is basically being told "Don't call us. We'll call you."

That's a bit disingenuous, though. Are all of those 15 schools more valuable than UConn? You can argue that's the case, but note that in every single one of those moves except for TCU and Utah was a transfer from one power conference to another power conference. The vast majority of conference realignment has been an internal reshuffling as opposed to an expansion. If you were to go back further to look at who was in a BCS power conference in 1998 (when the BCS was formed), the only 3 schools that have moved from 1998 non-power conference status to 2015 power conference status are TCU, Utah and Louisville. The proper comparison is that there have been 3 schools that have been promoted to the power ranks, and in the case of the ACC, UConn was (and still is) explicitly the NEXT choice after Louisville.

UConn is in the position where they might be school #66 or #67 (and probably no lower than #70) in a world where there are currently only 65 spots in the power ranks. When you're that close, you simply can't give up on football. You just can't. That doesn't mean that UConn will be successful - the Big 12 could easily screw them over by inviting a school like Cincinnati, instead. However, when they ARE one of the very small handful of schools with a legit chance, they HAVE to stay in that game of high stakes poker. Walking away from the table simply isn't a viable option - they are "pot committed" in poker parlance. Once again, there are no guarantees, but it would be ludicrous to suggest that their athletic department shouldn't be staying in that game in the position they are in. This isn't like Southern Mississippi and East Carolina fans having crazy thoughts that they can play their way into the ACC. UConn has a LEGIT chance, which is all a non-power conference school can ask for right now.

[Xudash]

Xudash,

At this point, it is not good money after bad. They have so much invested in going for the goal, it is money already spent. And they have the divorce settlement to get them through the next few years.

But come 2018, if they are still burning on football, it is spending good money after bad.

My position on uconn: leave a light on, if they want to return, discuss the options. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but no hard feelings and we can discuss the options.

Ball, I agree completely about leaving the light on for them. If it's meant to happen, it will happen.

I also cannot argue with anyone who takes the position that UCONN has put so much money into football that they're virtually obligated to try to find a way to make it financially viable.

Beyond that, I simply am looking at the UCONN situation through my reality, and I see virtually no opportunity for UCONN to turn things around within a 36 month period (2018) to the extent needed, given the circumstances they face.

[Xudash]

A couple or few key thoughts about all this:

1. Expansion, if it happens again, will primarily be a function of what works financially with respect to television money. That may include, from the Big XII's perspective, the "need" to expand to get to a conference championship game so that they don't get shut out of the playoff process more often than not, but even that has to be flushed through the Excel models to make sure that any expansion is positioned as being non-dilutive to existing conference members.

2. If you're not already in the P5, but value football at the FBS level, then you know you truly need P5 membership to be sustainable for the long-term. But you had better be sober about what sustainable means for your particular institution, should your particular institution not play its football games in Ohio Stadium, the Swamp, The Big House, in Tuscaloosa, etc. See where this is headed? All varying accounting treatments aside, it is projected that about 20 FBS programs are cash flow positive. I should more accurately state that it is projected that about 20 athletic departments out of the 120+ FBS institutions run in the black. Panacea is a relative term, I guess.

3. Finally, exclusive clubs tend to always prefer to remain exclusive, primarily because of the exclusivity they enjoy (how deep was that!). There are 65 teams in the club today - P5 plus ND. It isn't a given that the 4x16 model is dead, and by a longshot. Either way, again due to matters having to do with television, the existing club will collectively think in terms of less is more at this point. As of now, I would see the all powerful top three - B1G, SEC and Pac12 being rather content for now. Swofford and the ACC wake-up every day and aim their binoculars to the Southwest to see what the Big XII might be doing. Otherwise, we'll see if this spring or summer brings news from the Big XII, which is to say we'll see how Texas feels about things soon enough.

[Boyee]

The University of Connecticut needs a football team that is at least mediocre to get into a Power Five conference. The Big Ten Conference isn't an option presently because they do not meet two parameters for Big Ten entry: 1. Being a member of the Association of American Universities 2. Being located in a state that touches a current Big Ten state. Yes, I'm aware that UConn would be 7th academically in the Big Ten according to the current U.S. News and World Report College Rankings (#58 in the nation). Only Big Ten schools ranked higher academically than UConn are Northwestern University (#13), University of Michigan (#29), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (#42), University of Wisconsin-Madison (#47), The Pennsylvania State University (#48), and The Ohio State University (#54).

[pki1998]

That's a bit disingenuous, though. Are all of those 15 schools more valuable than UConn? You can argue that's the case, but note that in every single one of those moves except for TCU and Utah was a transfer from one power conference to another power conference. The vast majority of conference realignment has been an internal reshuffling as opposed to an expansion. If you were to go back further to look at who was in a BCS power conference in 1998 (when the BCS was formed), the only 3 schools that have moved from 1998 non-power conference status to 2015 power conference status are TCU, Utah and Louisville. The proper comparison is that there have been 3 schools that have been promoted to the power ranks, and in the case of the ACC, UConn was (and still is) explicitly the NEXT choice after Louisville.

I'm not sure you can say UConn is a lock if a spot opens up in the ACC. They definitely would be in the running, but I don't think you can ignore Cincinnati in that discussion. From a men's & women's Basketball perspective, UCONN dominates Cincinnati. However, from a football perspective Cincinnati is significantly better than UConn. The Bearcats used to have a joke of a program, but Mark Dontonio (now at Michigan State), and Brian Kelly (now at Notre Dame) energized the fan base, and people in Cincinnati now care about the Bearcat Football. Ohio State is always going to be the big dog in Ohio, but the Bearcats can deliver the Cincinnati Market, and provide access to the quality recruiting grounds of Ohio. The ACC already has great basketball teams in Duke, UNC, and Syracuse, what they need is football respect, and Cincinnati offers that more than UConn does.

As noted there are 65 teams in the clubhouse right now (64 teams in the Football Five and Notre Dame). A switch to the 4x16 model might actually be advantages to UCONN, and Cincinnati. First one team that's in the club gets booted for Notre Dame joining the Big 10 or ACC as a full football member. If the 4X16 ever happens, my money is on Notre Dame joining the Big 10 (Unless Texas and Oklahoma join the Big 10 as a package deal). UCONN needs to hope that the Big 12 dies, and dies quickly. The PAC 12 needs to four teams, there only real candidates are Big 12 teams and BYU. The Big 10 or SEC could pick up a team or two from the Big 12.

Guaranteed a spot a the big boy table
Texas Texas is in the driver seat, they have their choice of conferences, and could probably dictate who else the conference would add

Oklahoma Any conference would take Oklahoma as well. My guess is Oklahoma and Texas stick together, if they stay together which ever conference they join is the new top dog of college football.

Kansas Kansas will find a home in either the PAC 12, SEC, or maybe even the Big10.

Hard to Imagine they get let behind
Oklahoma State Best thing for Oklahoma State is that Oklahoma goes to the PAC 10 or doesn't follow Texas. Pickens Money, and the State Legislator putting pressure on Oklahoma to find a home for Oklahoma State, should mean they find a spot.

Baylor Baylor may be a private school but they have lots of allies in the Texas legislator. Those legislators might be able to force Texas to take Baylor with them, just like when the SWC disintegrated. Baylor's best worst nightmare is probably Oklahoma and Texas going to the SEC. I am not sure the Big 10, or the PAC12 would want them without Texas. If Oklahoma and Texas go to the PAC12 they would likely end up in the PAC 12 or SEC with A&M

Schools that could get demoted to CUSA 2.0 aka the American Athletic Conference
West Virginia The PAC 12 is never going to call on WV due to distance. The Big 10 and the ACC doesn't want West Virginia for academic reasons. The Big Ten has a choice, the ACC might not have a choice. If the Big Ten swipes up Notre Dame, and an ACC full member. The ACC needs at least three teams. Maybe 5 if the SEC also makes a move (NC State, UNC, Duke, VA Tech, Florida State, and Miami would all be attractive candidates). I honestly see the SEC trying to pry away one of the ACC Schools before going after WVU.

Texas Tech They need to hope and pray that somehow Texas takes them with them. Big 10 won't be interested, Why would the Pac 10 be interested without Texas? Maybe the SEC could throw a life raft to them, but I think they will have better options.

TCU - They got left behind when the SWC exploded they have to hope that doesn't happen again. I guess there is an outside shot that if Baylor and TCU were left behind the ACC might make a move to try to claim Texas but that seems unlikely

Iowa State Sorry Guys no one wants you. I can imagine a circumstance that causes Iowa State to end up in a power conference is the Big 12 dies.

Kansas State - Kansas State has to hope that Kansas can bring them along for a ride, otherwise I don't see them landing in a power conference.

The way I look at it, there are 5 schools from the Big 12 that could be in trouble. That leaves the door open for a UConn or Cincinnati to find a seat at the football big boy table.

[MackNova]

Texas Tech and TCU likely aren't going anywhere. Texas is a fertile recruiting ground and conferences want that in their leagues. I have to think one of the 3 non-Big Ten leagues would take them.