RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[Bill Marsh]

Temple at 12-6 would have a 46.6 RPI, which especially given their record once they got everyone would be more than enough to get in.

looking at the remaining schedule-
2 games with Tulane
2 with USF
2 with ECU
1 with Houston

right there if they won all of those would get them up to 9 wins. That means they would need 3 from- 2 with Tulsa, 2 with SMU, 2 with Cincy, and 1 with Memphis. Yeah that seems pretty reasonable.

Temple projected right now to beat UConn already in RPI forecast- so them doing that wouldn't hurt UConn per se. And remember, they have the win over Kansas which is going to look really good almost certainly. And even at 11-7, that would put their RPI entering the tourney at 57.4. They would be in position where 2 wins definitely got them in, and frankly 1 win would probably be more than enough...

Those 4 teams play each other double round robin. So it's possible they could all go 12-0 vs everyone else, and then beat the crap up out of each other. All 4 could wind up with 13 or 14 conference wins.

Just saying- it's not crazy at all to see the AAC get 4 spots. For one, with as down as some conferences are- there are spots open. To say that 3 is their maximum is just crazy and not based on any facts at all.

I agree that it's not crazy at all to project 4 spots for the AAC. When you emphasized "VERY possible", I thought you were stressing the likelihood of it happening. (Sometimes hard to tell on the internet.) It's not likely, based on what we know so far.

You have to read what RPI Forecast is saying with tHeir projections by looking beyond who is favored in each fame. Look at the percentages. If a team has 2 games that are basically toss ups, even though they may be favored to win both of those games by a point or 2, the final record will reflect one of them as a loss. That's the case in the UConn situation that you're quoting.

The point is that if a team gets a win that they're not projected to get, it becomes a loss for somebody else. In al league like the AAC where there are so many automatic home wins, when you bump up the records as you did, it's hard to come up with the final results because most of the games left in play are with each other. That was reflected by the fact that you had to bump SMU down to 11-7 to get the others up to 13-5. If SMU goes 11-7, something has drastically changed with that team and a lot of things are going to be up for grabs.

The only way that your scenario is if a bubble team like Temple goes on a roll and consistently wins close games at places like Tulane and Tulsa, teams that aren't likely to be tournament contenders themselves. It could happen, but it's not likely. When teams are involved in a lot of close games, those results are usually going to come out 50/50 in win/loss results. Sometimes beat the odds, but right now the odds are allow e have to go on.

Looking a little deeper, BOTH UConn (projected RPI: 47) and Temple (Projected RPI 50) are right on the bubble. If one gets in, the othe is probably out, given that conference games are almost the entire remainder of the schedule. (UConn has a game with Stanford.) it would really take everything going just right for both of them to get in.

The thing that makes all of this tricky is that Temple has a current RPI OF 32 and UConn of 83. UConn has a lot of work to do. As someone who lives near UConn and follows them closely, I know this is true. RPI Forecast, using Sagarin, is saying that they're better than their record. Their close losses confirm that. (See Temple in OT at home.) OTOH, RPI forecast, again using Sagarin, is saying that Temple isn't as good as their early record. Looking at their talent and their level of play last year, I agree. So, UConn is expected to rise and Temple to fall. The question is, how much? The answer is just an educated guess.

[stever20]

Temple at 12-6 would have a 46.6 RPI, which especially given their record once they got everyone would be more than enough to get in.

looking at the remaining schedule-
2 games with Tulane
2 with USF
2 with ECU
1 with Houston

right there if they won all of those would get them up to 9 wins. That means they would need 3 from- 2 with Tulsa, 2 with SMU, 2 with Cincy, and 1 with Memphis. Yeah that seems pretty reasonable.

Temple projected right now to beat UConn already in RPI forecast- so them doing that wouldn't hurt UConn per se. And remember, they have the win over Kansas which is going to look really good almost certainly. And even at 11-7, that would put their RPI entering the tourney at 57.4. They would be in position where 2 wins definitely got them in, and frankly 1 win would probably be more than enough...

Those 4 teams play each other double round robin. So it's possible they could all go 12-0 vs everyone else, and then beat the crap up out of each other. All 4 could wind up with 13 or 14 conference wins.

Just saying- it's not crazy at all to see the AAC get 4 spots. For one, with as down as some conferences are- there are spots open. To say that 3 is their maximum is just crazy and not based on any facts at all.

I agree that it's not crazy at all to project 4 spots for the AAC. When you emphasized "VERY possible", I thought you were stressing the likelihood of it happening. (Sometimes hard to tell on the internet.) It's not likely, based on what we know so far.

You have to read what RPI Forecast is saying with tHeir projections by looking beyond who is favored in each fame. Look at the percentages. If a team has 2 games that are basically toss ups, even though they may be favored to win both of those games by a point or 2, the final record will reflect one of them as a loss. That's the case in the UConn situation that you're quoting.

The point is that if a team gets a win that they're not projected to get, it becomes a loss for somebody else. In al league like the AAC where there are so many automatic home wins, when you bump up the records as you did, it's hard to come up with the final results because most of the games left in play are with each other. That was reflected by the fact that you had to bump SMU down to 11-7 to get the others up to 13-5. If SMU goes 11-7, something has drastically changed with that team and a lot of things are going to be up for grabs.

The only way that your scenario is if a bubble team like Temple goes on a roll and consistently wins close games at places like Tulane and Tulsa, teams that aren't likely to be tournament contenders themselves. It could happen, but it's not likely. When teams are involved in a lot of close games, those results are usually going to come out 50/50 in win/loss results. Sometimes beat the odds, but right now the odds are allow e have to go on.

Looking a little deeper, BOTH UConn (projected RPI: 47) and Temple (Projected RPI 50) are right on the bubble. If one gets in, the othe is probably out, given that conference games are almost the entire remainder of the schedule. (UConn has a game with Stanford.) it would really take everything going just right for both of them to get in.

The thing that makes all of this tricky is that Temple has a current RPI OF 32 and UConn of 83. UConn has a lot of work to do. As someone who lives near UConn and follows them closely, I know this is true. RPI Forecast, using Sagarin, is saying that they're better than their record. Their close losses confirm that. (See Temple in OT at home.) OTOH, RPI forecast, again using Sagarin, is saying that Temple isn't as good as their early record. Looking at their talent and their level of play last year, I agree. So, UConn is expected to rise and Temple to fall. The question is, how much? The answer is just an educated guess.

Look at Temple though since they got all the transfers in mid-year. Wins over Kansas and UConn. That does 2 things. 1 their early games w/o them are still reflected in projections. 2 the committee will view them if they finish strong more on their last 2/3 of the season and not the first part without the transfers.

I look at Ken Pom's projection-
Cincy 13-5
SMU 13-5
Temple 12-6
UConn 12-6

that scenario gets all 4 teams in. And if you notice- there are games that all 4 teams lose- that are vs teams like Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane I'm guessing. My hunch is SMU and Cincy probably get 1-2 more wins at those teams expense.

Temple would have to go 10-6. 2 USF, 2 ECU, 1 vs Houston, and 1 home with Tulane. That right there are 6 of the 10 wins. In the other 10 games, they'd just need to go 4-6. Seems very plausible to me.

[Bill Marsh]

Temple at 12-6 would have a 46.6 RPI, which especially given their record once they got everyone would be more than enough to get in.

looking at the remaining schedule-
2 games with Tulane
2 with USF
2 with ECU
1 with Houston

right there if they won all of those would get them up to 9 wins. That means they would need 3 from- 2 with Tulsa, 2 with SMU, 2 with Cincy, and 1 with Memphis. Yeah that seems pretty reasonable.

Temple projected right now to beat UConn already in RPI forecast- so them doing that wouldn't hurt UConn per se. And remember, they have the win over Kansas which is going to look really good almost certainly. And even at 11-7, that would put their RPI entering the tourney at 57.4. They would be in position where 2 wins definitely got them in, and frankly 1 win would probably be more than enough...

Those 4 teams play each other double round robin. So it's possible they could all go 12-0 vs everyone else, and then beat the crap up out of each other. All 4 could wind up with 13 or 14 conference wins.

Just saying- it's not crazy at all to see the AAC get 4 spots. For one, with as down as some conferences are- there are spots open. To say that 3 is their maximum is just crazy and not based on any facts at all.

I agree that it's not crazy at all to project 4 spots for the AAC. When you emphasized "VERY possible", I thought you were stressing the likelihood of it happening. (Sometimes hard to tell on the internet.) It's not likely, based on what we know so far.

You have to read what RPI Forecast is saying with tHeir projections by looking beyond who is favored in each fame. Look at the percentages. If a team has 2 games that are basically toss ups, even though they may be favored to win both of those games by a point or 2, the final record will reflect one of them as a loss. That's the case in the UConn situation that you're quoting.

The point is that if a team gets a win that they're not projected to get, it becomes a loss for somebody else. In al league like the AAC where there are so many automatic home wins, when you bump up the records as you did, it's hard to come up with the final results because most of the games left in play are with each other. That was reflected by the fact that you had to bump SMU down to 11-7 to get the others up to 13-5. If SMU goes 11-7, something has drastically changed with that team and a lot of things are going to be up for grabs.

The only way that your scenario is if a bubble team like Temple goes on a roll and consistently wins close games at places like Tulane and Tulsa, teams that aren't likely to be tournament contenders themselves. It could happen, but it's not likely. When teams are involved in a lot of close games, those results are usually going to come out 50/50 in win/loss results. Sometimes beat the odds, but right now the odds are allow e have to go on.

Looking a little deeper, BOTH UConn (projected RPI: 47) and Temple (Projected RPI 50) are right on the bubble. If one gets in, the othe is probably out, given that conference games are almost the entire remainder of the schedule. (UConn has a game with Stanford.) it would really take everything going just right for both of them to get in.

The thing that makes all of this tricky is that Temple has a current RPI OF 32 and UConn of 83. UConn has a lot of work to do. As someone who lives near UConn and follows them closely, I know this is true. RPI Forecast, using Sagarin, is saying that they're better than their record. Their close losses confirm that. (See Temple in OT at home.) OTOH, RPI forecast, again using Sagarin, is saying that Temple isn't as good as their early record. Looking at their talent and their level of play last year, I agree. So, UConn is expected to rise and Temple to fall. The question is, how much? The answer is just an educated guess.

Look at Temple though since they got all the transfers in mid-year. Wins over Kansas and UConn. That does 2 things. 1 their early games w/o them are still reflected in projections. 2 the committee will view them if they finish strong more on their last 2/3 of the season and not the first part without the transfers.

I look at Ken Pom's projection-
Cincy 13-5
SMU 13-5
Temple 12-6
UConn 12-6

that scenario gets all 4 teams in. And if you notice- there are games that all 4 teams lose- that are vs teams like Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane I'm guessing. My hunch is SMU and Cincy probably get 1-2 more wins at those teams expense.

Temple would have to go 10-6. 2 USF, 2 ECU, 1 vs Houston, and 1 home with Tulane. That right there are 6 of the 10 wins. In the other 10 games, they'd just need to go 4-6. Seems very plausible to me.

Adjusting for the Temple transfers is a fair point. We'll have to see how things play out

[Bill Marsh]

Temple at 12-6 would have a 46.6 RPI, which especially given their record once they got everyone would be more than enough to get in.

looking at the remaining schedule-
2 games with Tulane
2 with USF
2 with ECU
1 with Houston

right there if they won all of those would get them up to 9 wins. That means they would need 3 from- 2 with Tulsa, 2 with SMU, 2 with Cincy, and 1 with Memphis. Yeah that seems pretty reasonable.

Temple projected right now to beat UConn already in RPI forecast- so them doing that wouldn't hurt UConn per se. And remember, they have the win over Kansas which is going to look really good almost certainly. And even at 11-7, that would put their RPI entering the tourney at 57.4. They would be in position where 2 wins definitely got them in, and frankly 1 win would probably be more than enough...

Those 4 teams play each other double round robin. So it's possible they could all go 12-0 vs everyone else, and then beat the crap up out of each other. All 4 could wind up with 13 or 14 conference wins.

Just saying- it's not crazy at all to see the AAC get 4 spots. For one, with as down as some conferences are- there are spots open. To say that 3 is their maximum is just crazy and not based on any facts at all.

I agree that it's not crazy at all to project 4 spots for the AAC. When you emphasized "VERY possible", I thought you were stressing the likelihood of it happening. (Sometimes hard to tell on the internet.) It's not likely, based on what we know so far.

You have to read what RPI Forecast is saying with tHeir projections by looking beyond who is favored in each fame. Look at the percentages. If a team has 2 games that are basically toss ups, even though they may be favored to win both of those games by a point or 2, the final record will reflect one of them as a loss. That's the case in the UConn situation that you're quoting.

The point is that if a team gets a win that they're not projected to get, it becomes a loss for somebody else. In al league like the AAC where there are so many automatic home wins, when you bump up the records as you did, it's hard to come up with the final results because most of the games left in play are with each other. That was reflected by the fact that you had to bump SMU down to 11-7 to get the others up to 13-5. If SMU goes 11-7, something has drastically changed with that team and a lot of things are going to be up for grabs.

The only way that your scenario is if a bubble team like Temple goes on a roll and consistently wins close games at places like Tulane and Tulsa, teams that aren't likely to be tournament contenders themselves. It could happen, but it's not likely. When teams are involved in a lot of close games, those results are usually going to come out 50/50 in win/loss results. Sometimes beat the odds, but right now the odds are allow e have to go on.

Looking a little deeper, BOTH UConn (projected RPI: 47) and Temple (Projected RPI 50) are right on the bubble. If one gets in, the othe is probably out, given that conference games are almost the entire remainder of the schedule. (UConn has a game with Stanford.) it would really take everything going just right for both of them to get in.

The thing that makes all of this tricky is that Temple has a current RPI OF 32 and UConn of 83. UConn has a lot of work to do. As someone who lives near UConn and follows them closely, I know this is true. RPI Forecast, using Sagarin, is saying that they're better than their record. Their close losses confirm that. (See Temple in OT at home.) OTOH, RPI forecast, again using Sagarin, is saying that Temple isn't as good as their early record. Looking at their talent and their level of play last year, I agree. So, UConn is expected to rise and Temple to fall. The question is, how much? The answer is just an educated guess.

Look at Temple though since they got all the transfers in mid-year. Wins over Kansas and UConn. That does 2 things. 1 their early games w/o them are still reflected in projections. 2 the committee will view them if they finish strong more on their last 2/3 of the season and not the first part without the transfers.

I look at Ken Pom's projection-
Cincy 13-5
SMU 13-5
Temple 12-6
UConn 12-6

that scenario gets all 4 teams in. And if you notice- there are games that all 4 teams lose- that are vs teams like Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane I'm guessing. My hunch is SMU and Cincy probably get 1-2 more wins at those teams expense.

Temple would have to go 10-6. 2 USF, 2 ECU, 1 vs Houston, and 1 home with Tulane. That right there are 6 of the 10 wins. In the other 10 games, they'd just need to go 4-6. Seems very plausible to me.

Adjusting for the Temple transfers is a fair point.

The league is down from where it was a year ago when they had Louisville and still only got 4 bids, so I have a hard time seeing them get 4 again. We'll have to see how it plays out.

[stever20]

The thing about the AAC last year is that the league didn't just barely get 4 teams in. The lowest team they got was a 8 seed. If they had been more seeded like us last year with a 11 and a PIG team, then your point would mean more. So they could slide down some, and still get 4 teams in.

I just look at the ken pom projections-
SMU 13-5 would get them a 21-8 record. 26.7 RPI
Cincy 13-5 would get them either a 23-8 or 22-9 record. 23-8=30.1 RPI. 22-9=37.3 RPI.
UConn 12-6 would get them either a 20-10 or 19-11 record. 20-10=40.3 RPI. 19-11=48.7 RPI
Temple 12-6 would get them a 21-10 record. 46.3 RPI

All of those would get them in the tourney. The AAC is really helped that the 3/4 teams are UConn Temple in that UConn has such a good OOC schedule(#22) and Temple has the transfer situation as well.

Really I would say of the 4 teams- the one most precarious is UConn. If they lose to Stanford, they would have little margin for error.

[stever20]

was looking at last years Ken Pom/RPI and this years Ken Pom/RPI- last year thru 1/9(so after 3rd set of games)

last year kp/rpi
Villanova 5/6
Creighton 7/24
Xavier 28/25
Georgetown 40/54
Marquette 44/101
St John's 70/55
Providence 71/68
Butler 76/81
DePaul 125/110
Seton Hall 126/129

this year
Villanova 5/6
Xavier 29/55
Seton Hall 30/11
St John's 35/36
Butler 37/33
Georgetown 41/37
Providence 46/18
Marquette 91/101
Creighton 93/116
DePaul 189/206

last year avg- 59.2/65.3
this year avg- 59.6/61.9

I think it's interesting that our average Ken Pom rating is a smidge lower- but our average RPI is a decent bit better. It'll be interesting to see how tonight impacts things. The Seton Hall/Xavier game huge. Could see Xavier's RPI start to crater if they lose tonight- would take their own winning pct from .692 down to .610. And they're at that point of the ratings where a lot of teams collect- where a loss there impacts maybe a smidge more than other places in the ratings.

[robinreed]

RPI FORECAST
Big East Conference
Expected RPI: 2
Current RPI: 2
Current OOC Record: 91-29 (0.7583)
Expected OOC Record: 93-30 (0.7561)
Expected OOC RPI: 2
Expected OOC SOS: 3
RPI
8.9 Villanova 0.6397 0.5610 40 14-1 27-4 2-1 14-4 3-1 6-2 6-1 7-0 6-0 13-0 9 109 6
28.6 Seton Hall 0.6008 0.5624 37 12-2 21-9 2-0 11-7 2-3 3-3 4-2 6-1 6-0 10-2 26 136 11
32.0 Xavier 0.5966 0.5790 14 10-4 20-11 1-1 11-7 2-3 4-3 5-2 7-2 3-1 10-3 34 43 55
39.2 Providence 0.5870 0.5775 17 12-4 20-11 2-1 10-8 2-4 4-2 5-1 5-2 4-1 10-3 29 45 18
39.7 Butler 0.5860 0.5624 38 11-5 21-10 2-2 12-7 3-4 3-3 3-2 6-1 6-0 9-3 77 173 33
45.5 Georgetown 0.5806 0.5863 7 10-4 17-12 2-2 9-10 1-6 3-4 4-1 5-1 5-0 8-2 31 26 37
47.5 St. John's 0.5785 0.5820 11 10-4 19-11 0-3 8-10 1-6 3-3 4-1 5-1 5-0 10-2 19 19 36
105.7 Marquette 0.5349 0.5716 28 9-6 14-16 1-2 6-12 1-6 2-5 3-2 4-1 4-2 8-4 112 86 101
132.8 Creighton 0.5189 0.5521 59 9-6 14-17 0-2 5-13 2-4 2-6 1-4 4-1 6-1 9-4 126 224 116
216.8 DePaul 0.4753 0.5395 82 8-7 10-21 2-0 4-14 1-4 2-6 1-4 2-4 5-2 6-7 290 317 206

[robinreed]

ESPN RPI
2014-15 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (6) Villanova .6820 14-1 21 6 62 18 28 1-1 3-0 4-0 11-1 11 11.9 9.3 21.2
2 (11) Seton Hall .6484 12-2 54 3 132 1 8 2-2 1-0 2-0 10-2 67 6.7 9.0 15.7
3 (17) Providence .6332 12-4 19 53 19 41 79 0-1 3-0 4-1 8-4 21 5.5 8.8 14.3
4 (28) St. John's .6132 10-4 11 10 46 107 20 0-3 0-1 4-0 8-4 8 4.6 10.3 14.9
5 (32) Butler .6077 11-5 24 27 88 47 21 1-3 2-0 1-2 7-5 34 3.9 12.6 16.5
6 (33) Georgetown .6066 10-4 18 73 24 51 75 0-2 0-1 3-1 8-4 27 8.7 5.9 14.6
7 (51) Xavier .5878 10-4 77 59 108 81 85 0-0 2-0 1-3 8-4 124 15.3 2.8 18.1
8 (88) Marquette .5514 9-6 66 88 101 99 74 1-1 1-3 1-0 8-4 61 4.5 6.6 11.1
9 (103) Creighton .5393 9-6 145 50 201 147 58 1-1 0-2 1-2 6-6 106 5.3 4.1 9.4
10 (191) DePaul .4834 8-7 235 95 297 12 62 0-1 1-0 2-2 6-6 201 9.2 -4.6 4.6

[Hall2012]

ESPN RPI
2014-15 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (6) Villanova .6820 14-1 21 6 62 18 28 1-1 3-0 4-0 11-1 11 11.9 9.3 21.2
2 (11) Seton Hall .6484 12-2 54 3 132 1 8 2-2 1-0 2-0 10-2 67 6.7 9.0 15.7
3 (17) Providence .6332 12-4 19 53 19 41 79 0-1 3-0 4-1 8-4 21 5.5 8.8 14.3
4 (28) St. John's .6132 10-4 11 10 46 107 20 0-3 0-1 4-0 8-4 8 4.6 10.3 14.9
5 (32) Butler .6077 11-5 24 27 88 47 21 1-3 2-0 1-2 7-5 34 3.9 12.6 16.5
6 (33) Georgetown .6066 10-4 18 73 24 51 75 0-2 0-1 3-1 8-4 27 8.7 5.9 14.6
7 (51) Xavier .5878 10-4 77 59 108 81 85 0-0 2-0 1-3 8-4 124 15.3 2.8 18.1
8 (88) Marquette .5514 9-6 66 88 101 99 74 1-1 1-3 1-0 8-4 61 4.5 6.6 11.1
9 (103) Creighton .5393 9-6 145 50 201 147 58 1-1 0-2 1-2 6-6 106 5.3 4.1 9.4
10 (191) DePaul .4834 8-7 235 95 297 12 62 0-1 1-0 2-2 6-6 201 9.2 -4.6 4.6

so 7 in the top 50 and 9 in the top 100 by seasons end?

[robinreed]

Here are the latest bracket rankings from Team Rankings.com. When I last presented these rankings some posters had near heart attacks because I compared the Big East to the A-10 and the AAC. I am now including several P5 conferences in the rankings. For those who exerienced life threatening events from the first rankings please call an ambulance before reading the bracketology listed below. In my opinion the 10 team BE looks damned good compared to some of the 14 team P5 conferences. Especially when one thinks of the difference in monies spent by the conferences.



Big East Conference (4.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (14-1) 27-4 100% 48% 52% 2.6 90% 22%
8 29 Xavier (10-4) 20-11 66% 12% 55% 6.6 17% 0%
9 33 Butler (11-5) 20-11 69% 13% 56% 8.3 6% 0%
9 35 Providence (12-4) 20-11 54% 6% 48% 7.8 7% 0%
10 40 Seton Hall (12-2) 20-10 59% 6% 53% 8.6 5% 0%
11 43 Georgetown (10-4) 18-11 55% 9% 46% 9.2 2% 0%
St Johns (11-4) 19-12 26% 4% 22% 9.9 1% 0%
Creighton (9-6) 15-16 3% 1% 2% 11.2 0% 0%
Marquette (9-6) 15-15 7% 2% 5% 10.2 0% 0%
DePaul (8-7) 10-21 0% 0% 0% 14.4 0% 0%


Pacific-12 Conference (4.0 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 7 Arizona (13-1) 27-4 100% 43% 57% 2.7 87% 20%
3 10 Utah (12-2) 24-6 99% 32% 67% 4.3 61% 4%
7 28 Stanford (10-3) 20-10 76% 9% 67% 7.1 16% 0%
Colorado (9-5) 17-13 26% 4% 22% 10.6 0% 0%
Wash State (7-7) 11-19 0% 0% 0% 13.9 0% 0%
Oregon (11-3) 20-11 27% 3% 24% 9.7 1% 0%
USC (8-6) 12-18 0% 0% 0% 12.7 0% 0%
UCLA (8-7) 16-15 15% 2% 13% 11.2 0% 0%
Oregon St (9-4) 15-15 0% 0% 0% 11.6 0% 0%
California (11-4) 18-13 15% 2% 13% 9.3 0% 0%
Washington (11-3) 19-11 37% 3% 35% 9.0 2% 0%
Arizona St (8-6) 16-15 9% 2% 7% 10.5 0% 0%


American Athletic Conference (3.6 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
7 26 S Methodist (10-4) 22-8 86% 23% 63% 7.3 14% 0%
7 25 Cincinnati (11-3) 23-8 87% 17% 70% 7.0 18% 0%
9 34 Connecticut (8-5) 20-10 77% 40% 38% 9.1 5% 0%
11 41 Temple (11-4) 21-10 57% 6% 51% 9.1 3% 0%
Tulsa (9-5) 17-13 20% 4% 17% 10.7 0% 0%
Central FL (8-6) 12-17 0% 0% 0% 15.0 0% 0%
Tulane (11-3) 18-12 3% 1% 2% 12.2 0% 0%
S Florida (7-9) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.5 0% 0%
Memphis (8-5) 19-12 30% 9% 21% 10.8 0% 0%
E Carolina (7-9) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.2 0% 0%
Houston (7-7) 13-17 0% 0% 0% 14.9 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference (3.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
4 13 VCU (11-3) 25-6 99% 42% 57% 4.3 59% 2%
10 37 Geo Wshgtn (12-3) 23-8 66% 15% 51% 9.0 3% 0%
11 44 Dayton (11-2) 22-8 49% 10% 39% 9.0 2% 0%
12 47 Davidson (10-2) 21-8 51% 12% 39% 9.2 2% 0%
Geo Mason (6-7) 12-18 1% 0% 0% 12.4 0% 0%
U Mass (7-7) 16-15 6% 2% 4% 11.8 0% 0%
Fordham (5-7) 8-21 0% 0% 0% 15.5 0% 0%
Rhode Island (9-3) 21-8 39% 12% 27% 9.4 1% 0%
St Josephs (6-6) 13-17 0% 0% 0% 13.8 0% 0%
St Bonavent (8-4) 17-12 5% 3% 3% 9.5 0% 0%
Duquesne (5-7) 9-20 0% 0% 0% 15.3 0% 0%
La Salle (8-6) 17-14 8% 3% 5% 11.5 0% 0%
Richmond (7-7) 15-16 3% 1% 1% 12.4 0% 0%
Saint Louis (8-7) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 14.7 0% 0%

Big 12 Conference (6.2 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 9 Oklahoma (11-3) 22-8 99% 24% 75% 4.0 66% 9%
4 16 W Virginia (14-1) 24-7 97% 17% 80% 4.7 53% 6%
4 15 Kansas (11-2) 22-9 99% 16% 83% 4.6 53% 6%
5 19 Iowa State (11-2) 21-9 91% 14% 76% 6.2 31% 2%
5 20 Texas (12-3) 22-9 93% 15% 78% 6.5 27% 1%
6 21 Baylor (11-2) 22-9 86% 9% 77% 6.4 25% 1%
13 51 Oklahoma St (11-3) 18-12 44% 4% 40% 9.8 2% 0%
Texas Tech (10-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 12.5 0% 0%
Kansas St (7-7) 12-19 2% 1% 1% 12.0 0% 0%
TX Christian (13-1) 19-12 6% 1% 5% 11.3 0% 0%

Big Ten Conference (5.8 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
1 3 Wisconsin (14-1) 28-3 100% 44% 56% 1.8 98% 51%
3 11 Ohio State (13-3) 25-6 99% 31% 69% 4.3 62% 3%
5 17 Maryland (14-1) 24-7 94% 5% 89% 5.8 35% 1%
8 30 Michigan St (10-5) 21-10 79% 8% 72% 7.9 10% 0%
10 39 Iowa (11-4) 20-11 67% 3% 64% 9.3 3% 0%
10 38 Illinois (10-5) 20-11 57% 4% 53% 8.5 4% 0%
Rutgers (9-6) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 13.7 0% 0%
Nebraska (8-6) 13-17 1% 0% 1% 11.2 0% 0%
Purdue (10-5) 17-14 13% 1% 12% 9.6 0% 0%
Michigan (9-6) 14-16 5% 0% 4% 10.8 0% 0%
Penn State (12-4) 16-15 0% 0% 0% 11.5 0% 0%
Indiana (11-4) 19-12 33% 1% 32% 10.1 1% 0%
Minnesota (11-5) 20-11 34% 2% 32% 9.5 1% 0%
Northwestern (10-5) 14-17 0% 0% 0% 12.6 0% 0%

Atlantic Coast Conference (6.2 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
1 4 Virginia (13-0) 26-4 100% 19% 81% 1.9 96% 45%
1 2 Duke (13-0) 28-3 100% 42% 58% 1.5 99% 68%
2 8 Louisville (13-1) 26-5 100% 15% 84% 3.6 74% 12%
4 14 N Carolina (11-4) 23-8 100% 17% 83% 4.3 59% 4%
6 23 Notre Dame (15-1) 25-6 92% 5% 88% 6.8 19% 0%
12 49 Syracuse (10-4) 19-12 45% 1% 45% 9.4 1% 0%
Pittsburgh (11-4) 19-13 11% 0% 11% 10.5 0% 0%
Miami (FL) (10-4) 19-12 27% 0% 27% 10.1 0% 0%
VA Tech (8-7) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Boston Col (7-6) 12-18 0% 0% 0% 11.8 0% 0%
Florida St (9-6) 14-17 0% 0% 0% 11.3 0% 0%
Clemson (8-5) 14-16 1% 0% 1% 10.0 0% 0%
NC State (11-4) 18-13 35% 0% 34% 10.6 0% 0%
Wake Forest (8-7) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 12.1 0% 0%
GA Tech (9-4) 15-15 7% 0% 7% 11.1 0% 0%

Southeastern Conference (4.9 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
1 1 Kentucky (14-0) 30-1 100% 79% 21% 1.0 100% 96%
5 18 Arkansas (12-2) 24-7 91% 6% 85% 5.6 38% 2%
8 31 Florida (7-6) 19-12 73% 8% 66% 7.9 10% 0%
11 42 S Carolina (9-3) 19-11 49% 2% 47% 8.4 5% 0%
12 48 Georgia (9-4) 18-12 48% 2% 46% 9.1 2% 0%
13 52 Mississippi (9-5) 19-12 41% 2% 40% 8.8 2% 0%
Auburn (8-6) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 10.9 0% 0%
Alabama (11-3) 19-12 22% 1% 21% 10.8 0% 0%
LSU (11-2) 20-11 26% 1% 26% 9.6 1% 0%
Miss State (7-6) 10-21 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Tennessee (8-4) 15-15 8% 0% 8% 10.7 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (11-3) 19-12 12% 1% 12% 9.7 0% 0%
Missouri (6-7) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 11.4 0% 0%