Depaul = Bubble Burtser

[stever20]

WTF

Last yr it was seton hall tanking all out of conference and then beatings isn't enough bubble teams to hurt the conference come March. Well, depaul tanked soooo much worse this out of conference, and they ended Marquette's season in Wednesday and they just took Savier off the s-curve.

Can we trim down to 9 teams for a couple of years while depaul gets their act together so that we can avoid this nonsense?

Xavier is now off the s-curve???

How did one bad loss do that to them? Only if you trust the current RPI, which is highly unreliable at this point in the season. Instead of the 54 ranking where they are sitting in RPI right now, RPI Forecast projects them to finish at 27, which is a far more likely neighborhood for them.

Even at 54, they'd still be on the bubble and not yet "off the s-curve" at this early point in the season. I'm sure there will be more upsets before the season is finished. And not just in the Big East.

If they were 54, that wouldn't be all that close to the bubble. Remember there are about 20 1 bid conferences after the last at large selection. Last year, the last at large team was #47- so 21 1 bid conferences after that. 54 wouldn't even then be one of the 1st 4 out really even.

For Xavier, it's not just DePaul. It's UTEP, Long Beach St, and Auburn. Probably of all the teams in the mix, they had the worst OOC.

[TheBall]

Xavier's tournament odds just went from bubblelicious to slim with this weekend's loss. That's how bad a loss depaul is.

[Bill Marsh]

Xavier's tournament odds just went from bubblelicious to slim with this weekend's loss. That's how bad a loss depaul is.

That would be true if the Selection Committee were meeting this week, but they're not. When projecting Xavier's chances to make the tournament, it's still just one bad loss in a 32-33 game schedule. Moving forward, anyone has to be more encouraged by Xavier's ability to win games against top 109 teams than by won bad loss. Their record already includes the following wins:

Georgetown
Alabama
Stephen F. Austin
Long Beach State
Murray State
San Diego State

[BillikenFriar]

Was that list meant to make us feel better or worse about Xavier's selection chances?

[Bill Marsh]

Was that list meant to make us feel better or worse about Xavier's selection chances?

Didn't it?

Would you have preferred that I included a win over a more recognizable P5 team like Missouri (RPI: 180) instead of mid majors like San Diego State (RPI: 48) and Stephen F. Austin (RPI: 90)?

The point is that this year so far Xavier has repeatedly demonstrated their ability to beat teams in the top 100, which is the level of competition they'll be facing in the Big East 1-9 (with a couple just outside the top 100).

[Jet915]

Xavier's tournament odds just went from bubblelicious to slim with this weekend's loss. That's how bad a loss depaul is.

That would be true if the Selection Committee were meeting this week, but they're not. When projecting Xavier's chances to make the tournament, it's still just one bad loss in a 32-33 game schedule. Moving forward, anyone has to be more encouraged by Xavier's ability to win games against top 109 teams than by won bad loss. Their record already includes the following wins:

Georgetown
Alabama
Stephen F. Austin
Long Beach State
Murray State
San Diego State

First of all, they didn't beat San Diego State (they never played). They have two good wins, Georgetown and Alabama. Both bubble teams. They have two bad losses, Depaul and Auburn. SFA, LBSU, Murray State are not going to help them. X is squarely a bubble team right now.

[Bill Marsh]

WTF

Last yr it was seton hall tanking all out of conference and then beatings isn't enough bubble teams to hurt the conference come March. Well, depaul tanked soooo much worse this out of conference, and they ended Marquette's season in Wednesday and they just took Savier off the s-curve.

Can we trim down to 9 teams for a couple of years while depaul gets their act together so that we can avoid this nonsense?

Xavier is now off the s-curve???

How did one bad loss do that to them? Only if you trust the current RPI, which is highly unreliable at this point in the season. Instead of the 54 ranking where they are sitting in RPI right now, RPI Forecast projects them to finish at 27, which is a far more likely neighborhood for them.

Even at 54, they'd still be on the bubble and not yet "off the s-curve" at this early point in the season. I'm sure there will be more upsets before the season is finished. And not just in the Big East.

If they were 54, that wouldn't be all that close to the bubble. Remember there are about 20 1 bid conferences after the last at large selection. Last year, the last at large team was #47- so 21 1 bid conferences after that. 54 wouldn't even then be one of the 1st 4 out really even.

For Xavier, it's not just DePaul. It's UTEP, Long Beach St, and Auburn. Probably of all the teams in the mix, they had the worst OOC.

54 in January is not close to the bubble???

Right now their are 13 conference champs with auto bids in the top 50. Add those to 36 at large and you're looking at going 49 deep for at-large bids. So, yes, 54 isn't in the last 4, it's in the last 5. Do you really want to hang your hat on that argument in January?

How are UTEP and Long Beach State bad losses? They're both in the top 100. Agree with you about Auburn. Balance those 2 losses with OOC wins over Alanam, Stephen F. Austin, Murray State, and Long Beach State. That's more top 100 wins than a lot of teams have OOC. And are we saying that no one else has bad OOC losses?

Bottom line is that Xavier is 54 RPI now, first week in January. The fact that they project to #27 shows how volatile things will be in the next 2 months. To say they're "off the s-curve" because of a bad loss over the weekend is ridiculous. Nobody's on or off anything right now. This stuff is all way too premature. This isn't college football where a team's season is over in the first month.

[Bill Marsh]

Xavier's tournament odds just went from bubblelicious to slim with this weekend's loss. That's how bad a loss depaul is.

That would be true if the Selection Committee were meeting this week, but they're not. When projecting Xavier's chances to make the tournament, it's still just one bad loss in a 32-33 game schedule. Moving forward, anyone has to be more encouraged by Xavier's ability to win games against top 109 teams than by won bad loss. Their record already includes the following wins:

Georgetown
Alabama
Stephen F. Austin
Long Beach State
Murray State
San Diego State

First of all, they didn't beat San Diego State (they never played). They have two good wins, Georgetown and Alabama. Both bubble teams. They have two bad losses, Depaul and Auburn. SFA, LBSU, Murray State are not going to help them. X is squarely a bubble team right now.

Thanks for the correction. My mistake. They played University of San Diego.

As for my comment about the other teams, I never said that the Selection Committee would be influenced by wins over SFA, LBSU, or MSU. What I was trying to say was that their ability to beat those teams bodes well for their chances of beating teams of similar quality in conference.

No one is on the bubble right now because no decisions are being made right now. The only meaningful discussion of bubble teams right now involves projecting them into early March and where they'll be at that point. RPI is a poor instrument for doing that.

If we use a power rating system like Sagarin or Team Rankings - especially their "predictive" formula which uses point spreads, Xavier stacks up very well. That's important because their standing in March will depend on how they do in conference play, not where their RPI was in January.

[pki1998]

First Congrats to DePaul. They out played Xavier and deserved the win, I don't like it but that's the fact. Don't complain about DePaul busting anyone's bubble. If your team wants to make the tourney they have to go out there and earn it.

The last couple of weeks I have seen people complain a lot about Xavier's OCC, they might not have a bunch of big wins, but according to rpi forecast they have the 46th best OCC SOS in the country. That's better than everyone except Georgetown and Villanova. If you want to talk about X not being able to finish close games or win on the road, that's fair. But keep harping on their scheudle is just not right

[stever20]

First Congrats to DePaul. They out played Xavier and deserved the win, I don't like it but that's the fact. Don't complain about DePaul busting anyone's bubble. If your team wants to make the tourney they have to go out there and earn it.

The last couple of weeks I have seen people complain a lot about Xavier's OCC, they might not have a bunch of big wins, but according to rpi forecast they have the 46th best OCC SOS in the country. That's better than everyone except Georgetown and Villanova. If you want to talk about X not being able to finish close games or win on the road, that's fair. But keep harping on their scheudle is just not right

Part of Xavier's final SOS though hasn't happened yet- the game with Cincy. That's by far their best OOC game. And, if they lose that game- 4 OOC losses isn't good at all.

Another thing with Xavier is the fact they are 2-4 away from Cintas. This is a huge component that the committee uses- how you play away from home. Well, Xavier has lost to DePaul, Auburn, and Long Beach St away.