RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[R Jay]

LISTED ARE SEVERAL NON P5 CONFERENCES WHICH WILL HAVE MULTIPLE BIDS IN THE DANCE. CLEARLY OF THESE NON P5 CONFERENCES THE BIG EAST IS FAR AND AWAY SUPERIOR. WHAT IS DISTURBING IS ALL THE MINOR LEAGUE CONFERENCES WHICH RECEIVE AN AUTO BID (IT APPEARS TO BE 20 IN NUMBER) WHICH HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO JUSTIFICATION FOR RECEIVING A BID EXCEPT THAT THEY ARE RECOGNIZED BY THE NCAA AS CONFERENCES.
ONE UNDERSTANDS WHY THE P5 TALK OF FOUNDING A SEPARATE DIVISION OR BREAKING AWAY FROM THE NCAA.

Big East Conference (4.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (13-0) 28-3 100% 47% 53% 2.4 91% 29%
6 21 Xavier (10-3) 21-10 78% 14% 64% 6.4 23% 1%
9 33 Butler (10-4) 21-10 70% 13% 57% 7.8 11% 0%
11 42 St Johns (11-2) 20-11 50% 6% 44% 8.4 5% 0%
13 51 Georgetown (8-4) 18-11 50% 8% 42% 9.0 3% 0%
Providence (11-3) 19-12 43% 5% 38% 8.1 5% 0%
Seton Hall (11-2) 19-11 41% 4% 36% 9.4 2% 0%
Creighton (9-5) 16-15 4% 1% 3% 10.6 0% 0%
Marquette (8-5) 14-16 5% 2% 4% 10.2 0% 0%
DePaul (7-7) 9-22 0% 0% 0% 15.6 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference (3.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 12 VCU (10-3) 25-6 99% 41% 58% 4.4 57% 2%
9 34 Geo Wshgtn (10-3) 23-8 71% 19% 52% 8.3 8% 0%
12 47 Davidson (9-2) 21-8 50% 11% 38% 9.1 3% 0%
Geo Mason (5-7) 11-19 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%
U Mass (7-6) 17-14 15% 4% 12% 11.1 0% 0%
Fordham (5-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Rhode Island (8-3) 20-9 34% 10% 23% 9.5 1% 0%
St Josephs (6-5) 13-17 1% 0% 0% 12.3 0% 0%
St Bonavent (7-4) 16-13 3% 2% 1% 10.8 0% 0%
Duquesne (5-6) 10-19 0% 0% 0% 14.7 0% 0%
Dayton (10-2) 22-8 39% 7% 31% 9.0 2% 0%
La Salle (8-5) 18-13 14% 3% 10% 11.2 0% 0%
Richmond (7-6) 15-16 3% 2% 1% 12.2 0% 0%
Saint Louis (8-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%

American Athletic Conference (3.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
6 22 S Methodist (10-3) 23-7 87% 25% 62% 7.0 19% 0%
8 29 Cincinnati (9-3) 22-9 73% 15% 58% 7.4 14% 0%
10 40 Temple (10-4) 21-10 57% 8% 50% 8.7 4% 0%
12 46 Connecticut (6-5) 18-12 60% 34% 26% 10.2 2% 0%
13 50 Memphis (8-4) 20-11 51% 14% 37% 10.1 1% 0%
Tulsa (8-5) 17-13 14% 3% 11% 10.4 0% 0%
Central FL (7-5) 11-18 0% 0% 0% 15.9 0% 0%
Tulane (10-3) 17-13 1% 1% 0% 12.9 0% 0%
S Florida (6-8) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
E Carolina (7-7) 12-19 0% 0% 0% 14.6 0% 0%
Houston (7-5) 14-16 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%

Mountain West Conference (2.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
7 28 Colorado St (14-0) 26-5 66% 18% 48% 7.4 6% 0%
7 27 San Diego St (11-3) 24-7 78% 30% 48% 8.0 6% 0%
Fresno St (5-9) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Nevada (4-8) 10-20 0% 0% 0% 15.0 0% 0%
Boise State (10-4) 21-10 23% 12% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
San Jose St (2-11) 4-26 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Wyoming (11-2) 21-9 16% 9% 7% 11.8 0% 0%
New Mexico (9-4) 18-12 9% 6% 2% 12.1 0% 0%
UNLV (9-4) 20-11 33% 22% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
Air Force (7-5) 15-14 1% 1% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Utah State (8-5) 14-16 1% 1% 0% 14.9 0% 0%

There's no way the AAC is going to get that many bids. Their non-conference resumes are atrocious. Three is probably their maximum.

[robinreed]

LISTED ARE SEVERAL NON P5 CONFERENCES WHICH WILL HAVE MULTIPLE BIDS IN THE DANCE. CLEARLY OF THESE NON P5 CONFERENCES THE BIG EAST IS FAR AND AWAY SUPERIOR. WHAT IS DISTURBING IS ALL THE MINOR LEAGUE CONFERENCES WHICH RECEIVE AN AUTO BID (IT APPEARS TO BE 20 IN NUMBER) WHICH HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO JUSTIFICATION FOR RECEIVING A BID EXCEPT THAT THEY ARE RECOGNIZED BY THE NCAA AS CONFERENCES.
ONE UNDERSTANDS WHY THE P5 TALK OF FOUNDING A SEPARATE DIVISION OR BREAKING AWAY FROM THE NCAA.

Big East Conference (4.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (13-0) 28-3 100% 47% 53% 2.4 91% 29%
6 21 Xavier (10-3) 21-10 78% 14% 64% 6.4 23% 1%
9 33 Butler (10-4) 21-10 70% 13% 57% 7.8 11% 0%
11 42 St Johns (11-2) 20-11 50% 6% 44% 8.4 5% 0%
13 51 Georgetown (8-4) 18-11 50% 8% 42% 9.0 3% 0%
Providence (11-3) 19-12 43% 5% 38% 8.1 5% 0%
Seton Hall (11-2) 19-11 41% 4% 36% 9.4 2% 0%
Creighton (9-5) 16-15 4% 1% 3% 10.6 0% 0%
Marquette (8-5) 14-16 5% 2% 4% 10.2 0% 0%
DePaul (7-7) 9-22 0% 0% 0% 15.6 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference (3.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 12 VCU (10-3) 25-6 99% 41% 58% 4.4 57% 2%
9 34 Geo Wshgtn (10-3) 23-8 71% 19% 52% 8.3 8% 0%
12 47 Davidson (9-2) 21-8 50% 11% 38% 9.1 3% 0%
Geo Mason (5-7) 11-19 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%
U Mass (7-6) 17-14 15% 4% 12% 11.1 0% 0%
Fordham (5-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Rhode Island (8-3) 20-9 34% 10% 23% 9.5 1% 0%
St Josephs (6-5) 13-17 1% 0% 0% 12.3 0% 0%
St Bonavent (7-4) 16-13 3% 2% 1% 10.8 0% 0%
Duquesne (5-6) 10-19 0% 0% 0% 14.7 0% 0%
Dayton (10-2) 22-8 39% 7% 31% 9.0 2% 0%
La Salle (8-5) 18-13 14% 3% 10% 11.2 0% 0%
Richmond (7-6) 15-16 3% 2% 1% 12.2 0% 0%
Saint Louis (8-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%

American Athletic Conference (3.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
6 22 S Methodist (10-3) 23-7 87% 25% 62% 7.0 19% 0%
8 29 Cincinnati (9-3) 22-9 73% 15% 58% 7.4 14% 0%
10 40 Temple (10-4) 21-10 57% 8% 50% 8.7 4% 0%
12 46 Connecticut (6-5) 18-12 60% 34% 26% 10.2 2% 0%
13 50 Memphis (8-4) 20-11 51% 14% 37% 10.1 1% 0%
Tulsa (8-5) 17-13 14% 3% 11% 10.4 0% 0%
Central FL (7-5) 11-18 0% 0% 0% 15.9 0% 0%
Tulane (10-3) 17-13 1% 1% 0% 12.9 0% 0%
S Florida (6-8) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
E Carolina (7-7) 12-19 0% 0% 0% 14.6 0% 0%
Houston (7-5) 14-16 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%

Mountain West Conference (2.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
7 28 Colorado St (14-0) 26-5 66% 18% 48% 7.4 6% 0%
7 27 San Diego St (11-3) 24-7 78% 30% 48% 8.0 6% 0%
Fresno St (5-9) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Nevada (4-8) 10-20 0% 0% 0% 15.0 0% 0%
Boise State (10-4) 21-10 23% 12% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
San Jose St (2-11) 4-26 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Wyoming (11-2) 21-9 16% 9% 7% 11.8 0% 0%
New Mexico (9-4) 18-12 9% 6% 2% 12.1 0% 0%
UNLV (9-4) 20-11 33% 22% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
Air Force (7-5) 15-14 1% 1% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Utah State (8-5) 14-16 1% 1% 0% 14.9 0% 0%

There's no way the AAC is going to get that many bids. Their non-conference resumes are atrocious. Three is probably their maximum.

If you look at the first line which contains the name of the conference (in parens) you will see that the AAC is only projected at 3.4 bids whilst the BE is projected at 4.4.

[robinreed]

2014-15 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (5) Villanova .6877 13-0 31 8 44 8 21 1-0 2-0 3-0 12-0 15 12.5 11.0 23.5
2 (9) St. John's .6506 10-2 24 7 39 61 12 0-2 0-0 4-0 10-2 4 4.8 14.0 18.7
3 (15) Seton Hall .6321 11-2 91 4 142 1 8 2-2 0-0 2-0 10-2 68 7.6 9.2 16.8
4 (18) Providence .6310 11-3 20 29 21 14 34 0-1 1-0 5-0 9-3 10 6.6 9.9 16.4
5 (29) Butler .6099 10-4 35 12 82 54 9 1-1 1-0 1-3 8-4 35 4.6 14.3 18.9
6 (37) Georgetown .5950 8-4 13 32 25 85 32 0-2 0-2 2-0 8-4 32 9.6 5.4 14.9
7 (38) Xavier .5938 10-3 102 21 126 11 31 0-0 2-0 2-3 9-3 119 16.5 3.4 19.8
8 (103) Creighton .5391 9-5 173 25 213 76 23 0-1 0-1 2-2 7-5 101 6.3 5.0 11.3
9 (107) Marquette .5366 8-5 109 83 103 130 95 0-1 1-0 1-2 7-5 65 5.3 6.9 12.3
10 (224) DePaul .4685 7-7 255 62 282 16 42 0-1 1-0 0-1 5-7 217 9.9 -4.6 5.3

It is time for me to admit that prior to the season I NEVER thought Seton Hall would be this good. I think I had them rated 7th (perhaps 6th) in my private ranking. They can finish as high as second in the BE and will likely do so. Congrats hall you are exceeding almost everyone's expectations.

[stever20]

Here's what the RPI records look like right now
Seton Hall 9.2-1.2
DePaul 5.6-7
Nova 10.2-0.6
Butler 9-3.2
PC 7.8-3.2
X 7.2-3.2
Georgetown 6.2-4
Marquette 6.2-5
St John's 8-3

remember for RPI purposes-
home win/road loss=0.6
home loss/road win=1.4
neutral win/loss=1.0

so for instance tomorrow Villanova plays @ St John's.
If Nova Wins=
Nova would be instead of 10.2-0.6 11.6-0.6
St John's would be instead of 8-3 8-4.4
if St John's wins=
Nova would be instead of 10.2-0.6 10.2-1.2
St John's would be instead of 8-3 8.6-3

St John's would have seen their own record drop in 3 games from 8-1 to 8-4.4 if they lose. In other words- 25% of their RPI would have gone from .889 down to .645. It's why their RPI dropped last week from 13 to 21 despite playing 2 really good teams.

[Bill Marsh]

LISTED ARE SEVERAL NON P5 CONFERENCES WHICH WILL HAVE MULTIPLE BIDS IN THE DANCE. CLEARLY OF THESE NON P5 CONFERENCES THE BIG EAST IS FAR AND AWAY SUPERIOR. WHAT IS DISTURBING IS ALL THE MINOR LEAGUE CONFERENCES WHICH RECEIVE AN AUTO BID (IT APPEARS TO BE 20 IN NUMBER) WHICH HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO JUSTIFICATION FOR RECEIVING A BID EXCEPT THAT THEY ARE RECOGNIZED BY THE NCAA AS CONFERENCES.
One understands why the P5 talk of founding a separate division or breaking away from the NCAA.

Big East Conference (4.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (13-0) 28-3 100%8 47% 53% 2.4 91% 29%
6 21 Xavier (10-3) 21-10 78% 14% 64% 6.4 23% 1%
9 33 Butler (10-4) 21-10 70% 13% 57% 7.8 11% 0%
11 42 St Johns (11-2) 20-11 50% 6% 44% 8.4 5% 0%
13 51 Georgetown (8-4) 18-11 50% 8% 42% 9.0 3% 0%
Providence (11-3) 19-12 43% 5% 38% 8.1 5% 0%
Seton Hall (11-2) 19-11 41% 4% 36% 9.4 2% 0%
Creighton (9-5) 16-15 4% 1% 3% 10.6 0% 0%
Marquette (8-5) 14-16 5% 2% 4% 10.2 0% 0%
DePaul (7-7) 9-22 0% 0% 0% 15.6 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference (3.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 12 VCU (10-3) 25-6 99% 41% 58% 4.4 57% 2%
9 34 Geo Wshgtn (10-3) 23-8 71% 19% 52% 8.3 8% 0%
12 47 Davidson (9-2) 21-8 50% 11% 38% 9.1 3% 0%
Geo Mason (5-7) 11-19 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%
U Mass (7-6) 17-14 15% 4% 12% 11.1 0% 0%
Fordham (5-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Rhode Island (8-3) 20-9 34% 10% 23% 9.5 1% 0%
St Josephs (6-5) 13-17 1% 0% 0% 12.3 0% 0%
St Bonavent (7-4) 16-13 3% 2% 1% 10.8 0% 0%
Duquesne (5-6) 10-19 0% 0% 0% 14.7 0% 0%
Dayton (10-2) 22-8 39% 7% 31% 9.0 2% 0%
La Salle (8-5) 18-13 14% 3% 10% 11.2 0% 0%
Richmond (7-6) 15-16 3% 2% 1% 12.2 0% 0%
Saint Louis (8-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%

American Athletic Conference (3.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
6 22 S Methodist (10-3) 23-7 87% 25% 62% 7.0 19% 0%
8 29 Cincinnati (9-3) 22-9 73% 15% 58% 7.4 14% 0%
10 40 Temple (10-4) 21-10 57% 8% 50% 8.7 4% 0%
12 46 Connecticut (6-5) 18-12 60% 34% 26% 10.2 2% 0%
13 50 Memphis (8-4) 20-11 51% 14% 37% 10.1 1% 0%
Tulsa (8-5) 17-13 14% 3% 11% 10.4 0% 0%
Central FL (7-5) 11-18 0% 0% 0% 15.9 0% 0%
Tulane (10-3) 17-13 1% 1% 0% 12.9 0% 0%
S Florida (6-8) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
E Carolina (7-7) 12-19 0% 0% 0% 14.6 0% 0%
Houston (7-5) 14-16 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%

Mountain West Conference (2.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
7 28 Colorado St (14-0) 26-5 66% 18% 48% 7.4 6% 0%
7 27 San Diego St (11-3) 24-7 78% 30% 48% 8.0 6% 0%
Fresno St (5-9) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Nevada (4-8) 10-20 0% 0% 0% 15.0 0% 0%
Boise State (10-4) 21-10 23% 12% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
San Jose St (2-11) 4-26 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Wyoming (11-2) 21-9 16% 9% 7% 11.8 0% 0%
New Mexico (9-4) 18-12 9% 6% 2% 12.1 0% 0%
UNLV (9-4) 20-11 33% 22% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
Air Force (7-5) 15-14 1% 1% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Utah State (8-5) 14-16 1% 1% 0% 14.9 0% 0%

Who's projecting these bids? Contrast that with where things stand at RPI forecast right now, knowing that even they wouldn't be willing to make that kind of prediction today:

SEC (4)
Kentucky
South Carolina
Georgia
Arkansas

ACC (5)
Duke
Virginia
North Carolina
Louisville
Notre Dame

B1G (6)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Maryland
Michigan State
Iowa
Minnesota

WCC (2)
Gonzaga
BYU

BIG EAST (7)
Villanova
Seton Hall
Butler
Xavier
St. John's
Georgetown
Providence

ATLANTIC 10 (4)
Davidson
VCU
GW
Dayton

BIG XII (7)
Baylor
Texas
West Virginia
Kansas
Oklahoma
Iowa State
Oklahoma State

PAC-12 (4)
Utah
Arizona
Stanford
Washington

MISSOURI VALLEY (2)
Wichita State
Northern Iowa

AMERICAN (3)
Cincinnati
SMU
UConn

MAC (2)
Buffalo
Central Michigan

MWC (2)
Colorado State
San Diego State

CUSA (1)8
Old Dominion

The Big East projects significantly more bids than your source does.

As for "minor" conferences getting bids, it's because the NCAA has historically run a tournament of champions. That's always been their philosophy. The beauty of it is that it has created this David vs Goliath contest which the public loves. The fascination of the public for this format is what brings in a ton of money.

The P5 and other multi-bid conferences use the presence of minor conference champions to justify their multiple bids. The result is that multi-bid conferences walk away with the lion's share of the money not only because they get so many teams BYU because the tournament has so many rounds and teams get paid by wins. It-s the multi-bid conferences who are getting their teams to the Sweet 16 and beyond, so while minor conferences pick up a check for their one or occasionally 2 appearances, the major conferences are reaping the rewards of multiple teams winning multiple games.

Imagine that minor conference champions were eliminated. Along with them goes the justification for bringing multiple teams to the tournament. Since conference play has already decided who are the best teams, what's the point of bringing 5, 6, 7, 8, etc teams to the dance? There's a rationale for bringing 2 - regular season and conference tournament champs, but that's it. So, a scaled down tournament would bring in far less money, which after all is the whole point of the Money grubbing P5. They would be killing the goose that laid the golden egg. Without the minor conference Cinderellas, no one would want to see what would essentially be a replay of the tournaments that each conference just completed with the matchups simply being reshuffled across conferences.

[stever20]

LISTED ARE SEVERAL NON P5 CONFERENCES WHICH WILL HAVE MULTIPLE BIDS IN THE DANCE. CLEARLY OF THESE NON P5 CONFERENCES THE BIG EAST IS FAR AND AWAY SUPERIOR. WHAT IS DISTURBING IS ALL THE MINOR LEAGUE CONFERENCES WHICH RECEIVE AN AUTO BID (IT APPEARS TO BE 20 IN NUMBER) WHICH HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO JUSTIFICATION FOR RECEIVING A BID EXCEPT THAT THEY ARE RECOGNIZED BY THE NCAA AS CONFERENCES.
ONE UNDERSTANDS WHY THE P5 TALK OF FOUNDING A SEPARATE DIVISION OR BREAKING AWAY FROM THE NCAA.

Big East Conference (4.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (13-0) 28-3 100% 47% 53% 2.4 91% 29%
6 21 Xavier (10-3) 21-10 78% 14% 64% 6.4 23% 1%
9 33 Butler (10-4) 21-10 70% 13% 57% 7.8 11% 0%
11 42 St Johns (11-2) 20-11 50% 6% 44% 8.4 5% 0%
13 51 Georgetown (8-4) 18-11 50% 8% 42% 9.0 3% 0%
Providence (11-3) 19-12 43% 5% 38% 8.1 5% 0%
Seton Hall (11-2) 19-11 41% 4% 36% 9.4 2% 0%
Creighton (9-5) 16-15 4% 1% 3% 10.6 0% 0%
Marquette (8-5) 14-16 5% 2% 4% 10.2 0% 0%
DePaul (7-7) 9-22 0% 0% 0% 15.6 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference (3.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 12 VCU (10-3) 25-6 99% 41% 58% 4.4 57% 2%
9 34 Geo Wshgtn (10-3) 23-8 71% 19% 52% 8.3 8% 0%
12 47 Davidson (9-2) 21-8 50% 11% 38% 9.1 3% 0%
Geo Mason (5-7) 11-19 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%
U Mass (7-6) 17-14 15% 4% 12% 11.1 0% 0%
Fordham (5-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Rhode Island (8-3) 20-9 34% 10% 23% 9.5 1% 0%
St Josephs (6-5) 13-17 1% 0% 0% 12.3 0% 0%
St Bonavent (7-4) 16-13 3% 2% 1% 10.8 0% 0%
Duquesne (5-6) 10-19 0% 0% 0% 14.7 0% 0%
Dayton (10-2) 22-8 39% 7% 31% 9.0 2% 0%
La Salle (8-5) 18-13 14% 3% 10% 11.2 0% 0%
Richmond (7-6) 15-16 3% 2% 1% 12.2 0% 0%
Saint Louis (8-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%

American Athletic Conference (3.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
6 22 S Methodist (10-3) 23-7 87% 25% 62% 7.0 19% 0%
8 29 Cincinnati (9-3) 22-9 73% 15% 58% 7.4 14% 0%
10 40 Temple (10-4) 21-10 57% 8% 50% 8.7 4% 0%
12 46 Connecticut (6-5) 18-12 60% 34% 26% 10.2 2% 0%
13 50 Memphis (8-4) 20-11 51% 14% 37% 10.1 1% 0%
Tulsa (8-5) 17-13 14% 3% 11% 10.4 0% 0%
Central FL (7-5) 11-18 0% 0% 0% 15.9 0% 0%
Tulane (10-3) 17-13 1% 1% 0% 12.9 0% 0%
S Florida (6-8) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
E Carolina (7-7) 12-19 0% 0% 0% 14.6 0% 0%
Houston (7-5) 14-16 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%

Mountain West Conference (2.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
7 28 Colorado St (14-0) 26-5 66% 18% 48% 7.4 6% 0%
7 27 San Diego St (11-3) 24-7 78% 30% 48% 8.0 6% 0%
Fresno St (5-9) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Nevada (4-8) 10-20 0% 0% 0% 15.0 0% 0%
Boise State (10-4) 21-10 23% 12% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
San Jose St (2-11) 4-26 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Wyoming (11-2) 21-9 16% 9% 7% 11.8 0% 0%
New Mexico (9-4) 18-12 9% 6% 2% 12.1 0% 0%
UNLV (9-4) 20-11 33% 22% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
Air Force (7-5) 15-14 1% 1% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Utah State (8-5) 14-16 1% 1% 0% 14.9 0% 0%

There's no way the AAC is going to get that many bids. Their non-conference resumes are atrocious. Three is probably their maximum.

The AAC could easily get 4 bids in.
SMU- needs to go 11-7 to finish at 34.3 in RPI
Cincy- needs to go 13-5 to finish at 36.6 in RPI(with loss to Xavier even, otherwise 12-6)
UConn- needs to go 13-5 to finish at 39.9 in RPI(with loss to Stanford even, otherwise 12-6)
Temple- needs to go 13-5 to finish at 37.3 in RPI

VERY possible for all 4 of those to happen. With all 4 even- 1 more loss wouldn't even hurt them all that much.

[robinreed]

BRACKETOLOGY - NOTE WEB SITE IS http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna ... onference/


BRACKETOLOGY AS OF 1.5.2015 PER TEAMRANKINGS.COM
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna ... onference/

BIG EAST
Big East Conference (4.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 7 Villanova (13-1) 27-4 99% 44% 56% 3.1 82% 15%
7 27 Butler (11-4) 22-9 81% 15% 66% 7.2 17% 0%
8 29 Xavier (10-4) 20-11 64% 12% 52% 6.7 16% 0%
11 41 Seton Hall (12-2) 20-10 59% 6% 53% 8.7 4% 0%
12 48 Georgetown (9-4) 18-11 53% 9% 43% 9.1 3% 0%
Providence (11-4) 19-12 33% 5% 29% 8.6 3% 0%
St Johns (11-3) 19-12 35% 6% 30% 9.2 2% 0%
Creighton (9-6) 15-16 3% 1% 2% 10.6 0% 0%
Marquette (9-5) 15-15 8% 2% 5% 10.1 0% 0%
DePaul (8-7) 10-21 0% 0% 0% 13.9 0% 0%

AMERICAN
American Athletic Conference (3.6 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
6 24 S Methodist (10-4) 22-8 87% 23% 63% 7.4 14% 0%
6 23 Cincinnati (10-3) 22-8 84% 17% 68% 6.7 21% 0%
9 34 Connecticut (7-5) 19-11 77% 40% 38% 8.8 6% 0%
11 42 Temple (11-4) 20-11 58% 6% 52% 9.2 2% 0%
Tulsa (9-5) 17-13 21% 4% 17% 10.7 0% 0%
Central FL (7-6) 11-18 0% 0% 0% 13.3 0% 0%
Tulane (11-3) 18-12 4% 1% 2% 12.0 0% 0%
S Florida (7-8) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 16.0 0% 0%
Memphis (8-5) 19-12 32% 9% 23% 10.7 0% 0%
E Carolina (7-8) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.5 0% 0%
Houston (7-6) 14-16 0% 0% 0% 14.4 0% 0%

ATLANTIC 10
Atlantic 10 Conference (3.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 11 VCU (11-3) 25-6 99% 41% 59% 4.3 60% 2%
8 31 Geo Wshgtn (11-3) 23-8 75% 18% 57% 8.1 8% 0%
11 44 Dayton (11-2) 22-8 49% 9% 40% 9.1 2% 0%
12 46 Davidson (10-2) 21-8 53% 12% 41% 9.4 2% 0%
Geo Mason (6-7) 12-18 0% 0% 0% 12.8 0% 0%
U Mass (7-7) 16-15 6% 2% 4% 11.6 0% 0%
Fordham (5-7) 8-21 0% 0% 0% 16.0 0% 0%
Rhode Island (9-3) 21-8 39% 11% 28% 9.5 1% 0%
St Josephs (6-6) 13-17 0% 0% 0% 13.9 0% 0%
St Bonavent (8-4) 17-12 5% 2% 3% 9.9 0% 0%
Duquesne (5-7) 10-19 0% 0% 0% 13.8 0% 0%
La Salle (8-6) 17-14 8% 2% 5% 11.4 0% 0%
Richmond (7-7) 15-16 2% 1% 1% 12.6 0% 0%
Saint Louis (8-6) 12-19 0% 0% 0% 15.6 0% 0%

MWC
Mountain West Conference (1.9 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
9 35 San Diego St (11-4) 23-8 62% 29% 34% 8.2 4% 0%
10 39 Colorado St (14-1) 25-6 50% 17% 34% 7.8 3% 0%
Fresno St (6-9) 12-19 1% 1% 0% 14.8 0% 0%
Nevada (5-8) 10-20 0% 0% 0% 15.7 0% 0%
Boise State (10-5) 20-11 13% 11% 2% 12.7 0% 0%
San Jose St (2-12) 4-26 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Wyoming (12-2) 21-9 13% 8% 4% 12.2 0% 0%
New Mexico (10-4) 19-11 12% 9% 3% 11.7 0% 0%
UNLV (9-5) 20-11 32% 24% 8% 11.6 0% 0%
Air Force (7-6) 14-15 1% 1% 0% 15.3 0% 0%
Utah State (9-5) 16-14 1% 1% 0% 14.8 0% 0%

[Bill Marsh]

LISTED ARE SEVERAL NON P5 CONFERENCES WHICH WILL HAVE MULTIPLE BIDS IN THE DANCE. CLEARLY OF THESE NON P5 CONFERENCES THE BIG EAST IS FAR AND AWAY SUPERIOR. WHAT IS DISTURBING IS ALL THE MINOR LEAGUE CONFERENCES WHICH RECEIVE AN AUTO BID (IT APPEARS TO BE 20 IN NUMBER) WHICH HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO JUSTIFICATION FOR RECEIVING A BID EXCEPT THAT THEY ARE RECOGNIZED BY THE NCAA AS CONFERENCES.
ONE UNDERSTANDS WHY THE P5 TALK OF FOUNDING A SEPARATE DIVISION OR BREAKING AWAY FROM THE NCAA.

Big East Conference (4.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (13-0) 28-3 100% 47% 53% 2.4 91% 29%
6 21 Xavier (10-3) 21-10 78% 14% 64% 6.4 23% 1%
9 33 Butler (10-4) 21-10 70% 13% 57% 7.8 11% 0%
11 42 St Johns (11-2) 20-11 50% 6% 44% 8.4 5% 0%
13 51 Georgetown (8-4) 18-11 50% 8% 42% 9.0 3% 0%
Providence (11-3) 19-12 43% 5% 38% 8.1 5% 0%
Seton Hall (11-2) 19-11 41% 4% 36% 9.4 2% 0%
Creighton (9-5) 16-15 4% 1% 3% 10.6 0% 0%
Marquette (8-5) 14-16 5% 2% 4% 10.2 0% 0%
DePaul (7-7) 9-22 0% 0% 0% 15.6 0% 0%

Atlantic 10 Conference (3.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
3 12 VCU (10-3) 25-6 99% 41% 58% 4.4 57% 2%
9 34 Geo Wshgtn (10-3) 23-8 71% 19% 52% 8.3 8% 0%
12 47 Davidson (9-2) 21-8 50% 11% 38% 9.1 3% 0%
Geo Mason (5-7) 11-19 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%
U Mass (7-6) 17-14 15% 4% 12% 11.1 0% 0%
Fordham (5-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Rhode Island (8-3) 20-9 34% 10% 23% 9.5 1% 0%
St Josephs (6-5) 13-17 1% 0% 0% 12.3 0% 0%
St Bonavent (7-4) 16-13 3% 2% 1% 10.8 0% 0%
Duquesne (5-6) 10-19 0% 0% 0% 14.7 0% 0%
Dayton (10-2) 22-8 39% 7% 31% 9.0 2% 0%
La Salle (8-5) 18-13 14% 3% 10% 11.2 0% 0%
Richmond (7-6) 15-16 3% 2% 1% 12.2 0% 0%
Saint Louis (8-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%

American Athletic Conference (3.4 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
6 22 S Methodist (10-3) 23-7 87% 25% 62% 7.0 19% 0%
8 29 Cincinnati (9-3) 22-9 73% 15% 58% 7.4 14% 0%
10 40 Temple (10-4) 21-10 57% 8% 50% 8.7 4% 0%
12 46 Connecticut (6-5) 18-12 60% 34% 26% 10.2 2% 0%
13 50 Memphis (8-4) 20-11 51% 14% 37% 10.1 1% 0%
Tulsa (8-5) 17-13 14% 3% 11% 10.4 0% 0%
Central FL (7-5) 11-18 0% 0% 0% 15.9 0% 0%
Tulane (10-3) 17-13 1% 1% 0% 12.9 0% 0%
S Florida (6-8) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
E Carolina (7-7) 12-19 0% 0% 0% 14.6 0% 0%
Houston (7-5) 14-16 0% 0% 0% 14.3 0% 0%

Mountain West Conference (2.3 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
7 28 Colorado St (14-0) 26-5 66% 18% 48% 7.4 6% 0%
7 27 San Diego St (11-3) 24-7 78% 30% 48% 8.0 6% 0%
Fresno St (5-9) 11-20 0% 0% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Nevada (4-8) 10-20 0% 0% 0% 15.0 0% 0%
Boise State (10-4) 21-10 23% 12% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
San Jose St (2-11) 4-26 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%
Wyoming (11-2) 21-9 16% 9% 7% 11.8 0% 0%
New Mexico (9-4) 18-12 9% 6% 2% 12.1 0% 0%
UNLV (9-4) 20-11 33% 22% 11% 11.2 0% 0%
Air Force (7-5) 15-14 1% 1% 0% 15.1 0% 0%
Utah State (8-5) 14-16 1% 1% 0% 14.9 0% 0%

There's no way the AAC is going to get that many bids. Their non-conference resumes are atrocious. Three is probably their maximum.

The AAC could easily get 4 bids in.
SMU- needs to go 11-7 to finish at 34.3 in RPI
Cincy- needs to go 13-5 to finish at 36.6 in RPI(with loss to Xavier even, otherwise 12-6)
UConn- needs to go 13-5 to finish at 39.9 in RPI(with loss to Stanford even, otherwise 12-6)
Temple- needs to go 13-5 to finish at 37.3 in RPI

VERY possible for all 4 of those to happen. With all 4 even- 1 more loss wouldn't even hurt them all that much.

Of course it's possible. Anything's possible. But look at what you're saying:

1. SMU, the best team in the conference, is going to finish 4th. That's highly unlikely.

2. Temple, which is currently projected to go 11-7 even with their upset of UConn already in the books, is going to come up with 2 more wins from somewhere. In order to accomplish that, they'd likely have to to go 8-1 at home. They're not that good.

3. Even if Temple were to go 8-1 at home, that means that they'd be stealing wins from UConn and Cincy, which means that those two are not also going 13-5. UConn, for example, is only projected to go 11-7. So, another loss to Temple would put them at 10-6, and out of the NCAA field.

[Bill Marsh]

Now that the dust has settled from the weekend, here's what the latest from RPI Forecast looks like:

BIG EAST

7. Villanova
21. Seton Hall
25. Butler
27. Xavier
33. St. John's
42. Georgetown
45. Providence
108. Marquette
136. Creighton
214. DePaul

[stever20]

Temple at 12-6 would have a 46.6 RPI, which especially given their record once they got everyone would be more than enough to get in.

looking at the remaining schedule-
2 games with Tulane
2 with USF
2 with ECU
1 with Houston

right there if they won all of those would get them up to 9 wins. That means they would need 3 from- 2 with Tulsa, 2 with SMU, 2 with Cincy, and 1 with Memphis. Yeah that seems pretty reasonable.

Temple projected right now to beat UConn already in RPI forecast- so them doing that wouldn't hurt UConn per se. And remember, they have the win over Kansas which is going to look really good almost certainly. And even at 11-7, that would put their RPI entering the tourney at 57.4. They would be in position where 2 wins definitely got them in, and frankly 1 win would probably be more than enough...

Those 4 teams play each other double round robin. So it's possible they could all go 12-0 vs everyone else, and then beat the crap up out of each other. All 4 could wind up with 13 or 14 conference wins.

Just saying- it's not crazy at all to see the AAC get 4 spots. For one, with as down as some conferences are- there are spots open. To say that 3 is their maximum is just crazy and not based on any facts at all.