RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[robinreed]

BRACKETOLOGY NCAA TOURNAMENT

Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (10-0) 27-4 99% 43% 56% 3.0 82% 23%
6 24 Butler (8-2) 22-9 84% 16% 68% 6.8 24% 1%
6 22 Xavier (8-2) 22-9 83% 15% 68% 6.6 23% 1%
9 35 Georgetown (6-3) 18-11 66% 11% 55% 8.4 8% 0%
14 57 St Johns (8-1) 19-12 40% 4% 36% 9.4 3% 0%
Providence (8-3) 17-14 20% 2% 18% 9.6 1% 0%
Seton Hall (8-1) 18-12 32% 3% 29% 9.6 2% 0%
Creighton (8-3) 17-14 15% 3% 13% 10.2 0% 0%
Marquette (5-4) 15-15 13% 2% 11% 9.4 1% 0%
DePaul (6-3) 10-19 0% 0% 0% 12.8 0% 0%

BIG EAST TOURNAMENT BRACKETOLOGY

In our most recent calculations, we project Villanova as the most likely winner of the 2015 Big East Championship. The second most likely team to top the Big East bracket is Butler.

Seed Team Quarter Semi Champ Win
1.8 Villanova 99.89% 83.47% 61.56% 43.09%
3.1 Butler 98.41% 64.99% 34.37% 15.68%
3.6 Xavier 97.28% 62.76% 32.49% 15.19%
4.5 Georgetown 94.38% 54.08% 25.58% 11.28%
5.9 St Johns 83.28% 33.34% 12.46% 4.32%
6.3 Seton Hall 79.21% 28.89% 10.26% 3.42%
6.7 Creighton 74.88% 24.51% 8.17% 2.53%
6.7 Providence 74.35% 24.10% 7.99% 2.48%
7.1 Marquette 67.98% 20.01% 6.34% 1.88%
9.3 DePaul 30.34% 3.86% 0.78% 0.13%

[robinreed]

Basketball Power Index A CREATION OF THE DERANGED STATISTICIANS AT ESPN
This may be the most questionable of the many rankings which ESPN publishes. However we did very well in this ranking and so I will present it to you as a measure of respect which the ESPN statisticians have shown us. This for those of you who feel ESPN wishes us ill.

The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a team rating system that accounts for the final score, pace of play, site, strength of opponent and absence of key players in every Division I men's game. BPI can be used to measure both how well a team has performed (going far beyond just wins and losses) and how powerful it is likely to be going forward.

2014-15 BPI
BPI RK TEAM CONF BPI PVA CONF RK W-L RAW RAW RK SOS SOS RK VAR VAR RK
1 Kentucky SEC 96.0 25.8 1 11-0 91.0 2 55.0 94 3.1 351
2 Virginia ACC 92.6 20.5 1 9-0 91.2 1 51.4 147 6.5 339
3 Louisville ACC 92.2 20.0 2 9-0 85.3 9 56.9 71 4.2 350
4 Duke ACC 92.0 19.8 3 9-0 88.4 3 53.6 116 5.2 347
5 Wisconsin Big Ten 91.2 19.0 1 10-1 84.5 10 56.8 74 7.3 336
6 Ohio State Big Ten 90.4 18.2 2 9-1 85.9 6 54.6 99 6.0 343
7 Gonzaga WCC 89.9 17.7 1 10-1 85.4 8 54.5 102 7.5 332
8 Texas Big 12 89.8 17.7 1 9-1 81.0 13 58.8 52 7.5 331
9 Kansas Big 12 89.7 17.5 2 8-1 66.8 73 72.9 1 9.8 311
10 Wichita State MVC 89.3 17.2 1 8-1 78.2 20 61.2 31 6.2 340
11 Arizona Pac-12 89.1 17.0 1 11-0 82.9 11 56.2 80 6.0 342
12 Utah Pac-12 88.4 16.4 2 7-2 75.0 30 63.3 19 5.1 348
13 Baylor Big 12 87.8 16.0 3 9-1 77.0 21 60.8 36 10.4 300
14 West Virginia Big 12 87.6 15.9 4 9-1 79.5 15 58.1 58 7.6 330
15 Xavier Big East 87.2 15.6 1 8-2 79.0 18 58.2 56 12.0 268
16 Villanova Big East 87.2 15.5 2 10-0 86.0 5 51.2 151 10.8 295
17 North Carolina ACC 85.0 14.0 4 7-3 72.0 45 63.0 21 13.0 250
18 Oklahoma Big 12 84.6 13.8 5 7-2 75.2 29 59.4 47 11.7 274
19 Michigan State Big Ten 84.3 13.7 3 8-3 74.4 32 59.9 43 11.6 276
20 Seton Hall Big East 84.1 13.5 3 8-1 74.0 35 60.1 42 7.2 337

[robinreed]

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 2 Conf. SOS Rank: 3

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.

Last updated - Fri Dec 19 13:48:19 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Up 4 From Last Week 10 Villanova 0-0 10-0 0.6619 68 0.5492
Down 2 From Last Week 18 Seton Hall 0-0 9-1 0.6414 76 0.5469
Up 10 From Last WeekUp 10 From Last Week 45 St. John's 0-0 7-1 0.5982 94 0.5372
Up 3 From Last Week 48 Xavier 0-0 8-2 0.5950 82 0.5434
Up 8 From Last Week 49 Butler 0-0 8-2 0.5944 109 0.5259
Up 18 From Last WeekUp 18 From Last Week 64 Marquette 0-0 5-4 0.5795 9 0.6181
Up 3 From Last Week 74 Providence 0-0 8-3 0.5714 99 0.5343
Down 7 From Last Week 82 Georgetown 0-0 6-3 0.5618 48 0.5689
Up 14 From Last WeekUp 14 From Last Week 123 Creighton 0-0 8-3 0.5303 210 0.4849
189 DePaul 0-0 6-4 0.4881 230 0.4761

[jfan]

Does anyone have an idea what happened to Warren Nolan RPI this morning? The RPI rankings changed dramatically and don't make much sense.

[jfan]

They fixed it. It had Providence and Marquette near 200 and Creighton under 100 ( I liked that part) but it was way off. They had the BE at #4 all of the sudden.

[stever20]

just to compare this year to last year(after Dec 22, last I can see before conference season started)
after 12/22 last year
1 Nova 7
2 Butler 32
3 Creighton 43
4 St John's 50
5 Georgetown 53
6 Xavier 65
7 Providence 86
8 Marquette 112
9 DePaul 132
10 Seton Hall 139

this year so far
1 Villanova 7
2 St John's 23
3 Seton Hall 24
4 Providence 45
5 Georgetown 54
6 Butler 64
7 Xavier 73
8 Marquette 84
9 Creighton 145
10 DePaul 210

St John's/Seton Hall both a lot stronger than PC/Creighton were last year. Same with Providence this year being stronger than St John's at 4. But 5 and 6 are almost carbon copies of last year. Xavier and Marquette at 7 and 8 better than last years 7 and 8. 9-10 worse(and in DePaul's case- MUCH worse).

[Bill Marsh]

Here's the latest for RPI Forecast, inclusive of games through Saturday:

CONFERENCES

1. Big XII
2. Big East
3. ACC
4. Big 10
5. PAC-12
6. SEC
7. A10
8. West Coast
9. American
10. Mountain West

BIG EAST

14. Villanova
21. Xavier
28. Butler
29. Seton Hall
34. St. John's
39. Georgetown
55. Providence
96. Marquette
114. Creighton
193. DePaul

No one in the top ten, but 6 teams in position for tournament bids and a 7th on the bubble is pretty impressive. Big win for PC over UMass and Villanova a over Syracuse. Seton Hall will take a hit after tonight's loss.

[robinreed]

REAL TIME RPI

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)
Conf. RPI Rank: 2 Conf. SOS Rank: 4

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Last updated - Sat Dec 20 13:35:32 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Up 4 From Last Week 10 Villanova 0-0 10-0 0.6589 81 0.5452
Down 1 From Last Week 17 Seton Hall 0-0 9-1 0.6411 78 0.5464
Up 25 From Last WeekUp 25 From Last Week 30 St. John's 0-0 8-1 0.6133 67 0.5511
Up 15 From Last WeekUp 15 From Last Week 42 Butler 0-0 8-2 0.5986 104 0.5315
Up 4 From Last Week 47 Xavier 0-0 8-2 0.5942 85 0.5423
Up 16 From Last WeekUp 16 From Last Week 61 Providence 0-0 9-3 0.5821 90 0.5413
Up 8 From Last Week 67 Georgetown 0-0 7-3 0.5778 36 0.5787
Down 5 From Last Week 87 Marquette 0-0 6-4 0.5565 41 0.5753
Up 13 From Last WeekUp 13 From Last Week 124 Creighton 0-0 9-3 0.5290 227 0.4761
Down 7 From Last Week 196 DePaul 0-0 6-4 0.4836 238 0.4701

ESPN RPI
2014-15 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (9) Villanova .6639 11-0 85 26 86 120 286 1-0 3-0 0-0 11-0 20 11.9 11.6 23.5
2 (21) Seton Hall .6246 9-1 146 33 149 111 160 0-1 1-0 2-0 9-1 87 9.2 9.1 18.2
3 (23) St. John's .6218 8-1 108 46 110 116 138 0-1 1-0 1-0 8-1 7 3.9 15.6 19.5
4 (51) Providence .5863 9-3 92 102 93 117 115 0-1 2-0 1-0 9-3 16 6.1 9.9 16.1
5 (56) Georgetown .5807 7-3 34 4 46 16 5 0-2 1-0 1-1 7-3 34 9.6 8.5 18.1
6 (64) Butler .5776 8-3 118 1 156 11 3 1-0 0-1 1-2 8-3 63 6.4 14.1 20.4
7 (77) Xavier .5658 8-3 157 89 160 109 342 0-0 1-0 2-2 8-3 133 18.1 2.1 20.2
8 (86) Marquette .5566 6-4 43 194 45 130 238 0-1 1-1 1-1 6-4 54 5.5 5.1 10.7
9 (119) Creighton .5357 9-3 233 108 236 96 260 0-0 1-0 2-2 9-3 65 8.3 5.3 13.6
10 (198) DePaul .4797 6-4 288 173 291 87 256 0-0 0-1 1-1 6-4 187 11.8 -2.2 9.6

[stever20]

Here's the latest for RPI Forecast, inclusive of games through Saturday:

CONFERENCES

1. Big XII
2. Big East
3. ACC
4. Big 10
5. PAC-12
6. SEC
7. A10
8. West Coast
9. American
10. Mountain West

BIG EAST

14. Villanova
21. Xavier
28. Butler
29. Seton Hall
34. St. John's
39. Georgetown
55. Providence
96. Marquette
114. Creighton
193. DePaul

No one in the top ten, but 6 teams in position for tournament bids and a 7th on the bubble is pretty impressive. Big win for PC over UMass and Villanova a over Syracuse. Seton Hall will take a hit after tonight's loss.

A team ranked 55 really isn't even all that close to the bubble quite frankly. Generally there are about 20 1 bid conferences so a team ranked 55th would be like the 7th or 8th team out. That's not close.

Also, I would suggest these projections are based in large part to what Marquette had done already. I really don't see them only going 7-11 in conference play. Also quite frankly, don't see 2nd place team having 7 losses- that just doesn't happen in a 10 team round robin situation. 2nd place team will have 13-14 wins- not 11. where do those wins come from?

Just looking at Ken Pom's projections and using the RPI forecast projected RPI by records- his projection would give up
Villanova 10
St John's 26.6
Georgetown 34.5
Xavier 30.3
those 4 seem really safe..

bubbles-
Butler 19-12 52.9
Seton Hall 19-11 45.8
Providence 18-13 57.9
all would need a win in the BET to feel safe at all(and in the case of the 7th place team a 2nd win vs the 2 seed).

others-
Creighton 16-15 115.9
Marquette 14-16 110.1
DePaul 10-19 195.9

[robinreed]

BRACKETOLOGY BIG EAST

Big East Conference (4.6 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 5 Villanova (11-0) 27-4 99% 44% 55% 2.9 84% 24%
6 24 Xavier (8-3) 21-10 77% 14% 63% 6.8 20% 1%
7 26 Butler (8-3) 21-10 76% 13% 63% 7.5 15% 1%
9 35 Georgetown (7-3) 18-11 65% 11% 55% 8.6 6% 0%
13 52 St Johns (9-1) 19-12 44% 5% 39% 9.5 2% 0%
Providence (9-3) 18-13 33% 4% 29% 8.9 2% 0%
Seton Hall (9-1) 19-11 41% 5% 36% 9.1 3% 0%
Creighton (9-3) 17-14 14% 2% 11% 10.6 0% 0%
Marquette (6-4) 15-15 13% 2% 11% 9.9 0% 0%
DePaul (6-4) 9-20 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0%

FIVE teams projected to be in the dance with Providence and Seton Hall as an outside possibility.